Mat Latos (SP—Padres) It’s difficult to determine how rookies will do once they come up. Even the rookie “sure thing” will endure struggles. Look at David Price and Matt Weiters. They have hardly been the impact players out of the gate many, including myself, thought they would be. Mat Latos is another talented rookie with a high ceiling. His first two starts have produced a palatable ERA of 3.72 and he has put together a strong WHIP of 1.138 and solid numbers with BB/9 (2.8) and K/9 (8.4). To get to the majors, Latos made the jump from double A where he had an outstanding average of better than 10 strikeouts per game and a career minor league ERA 2.49. Latos has some impressive stats but it would probably be premature to make him a regular part of your fantasy rotation as the Padres will probably be very cautious about giving him too many innings so early in his career and not want to push him since the team is not in contention. He will be on a strict pitch count until he stretches out his arm. Latos did put away the Red on Wednesday with a performance that lowered his ERA to 2.70, striking out 4 in 7 innings and allowing 1 ER. Currently, Latos’ fantasy value is increasing with every start but he will have his share of rough outings. Watch his progression as he has the potential to be a strikeout machine with a low WHIP. He might be a nice option in deep NL leagues but is certainly a very good prospect in keeper leagues as he has a live arm that the Padres want to be careful with.
Joel Pineiro (SP--Cardinals) The Cardinals have been one of the busier teams prior to the trading deadline with the acquisitions of Julio Lugo, Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday. All of these moves have solidified a Cardinal lineup that has now made it tough for any opposing pitcher to navigate through the batting order with any time to rest. The toughness of the Cardinal batting order certainly increases the value of the Cardinal pitching staff and Joel Pineiro is one of those pitchers that should benefit. Pineiro has been a pleasant surprise this season as he has some indicators that stand out impressively. He has already pitched 2 shutouts this season which is largely due to his excellent control and his ability to put the ball in play. He has only allowed 15 walks this season, that's less than 1 walk per 9 innings and has only given up 3 home runs thanks to a very effective sinker. The sinker has produced a GB% of 61% compared to his career GB% of 48%. It's the development of this 2-seam fastball that has been the difference maker for Pineiro this season. Hardly a pitcher that gets a lot of strikeouts, Pineiro is overall very stingy with allowing runners on base with a 1.07 WHIP and extremely economical when it comes to pitches having thrown 100 or more pitches only 5 times this season including his 8 innings on Wednesday. This should serve him well down the stretch as the team moves through August and September. He isn't one of the more glamorous names out there, like Lincecum, Sabathia or Santana, but he may be able to be acquired for a reasonable value with a strong potential for a good return on investment as he plays for a team that should provide a lot of support.
Ian Snell (SP--Pirates) The Pirates continue cleaning house, getting rid of large contracts and replacing them with younger prospects that they can control longer. Ian Snell was the latest Pirate casualty to be shipped off to Seattle and it may be harder to determine who was happier with the move: Pittsburgh or Snell. Pittsburgh had become increasingly frustrated with Snell’s lack of progress considering his potential that they sent him down to the minors towards the end of June to work out his issues. Prior to that he had an ERA of 5.36 and seemed to have lost some velocity as he was more hittable with a CT% of 80% as opposed to a career CT% of 78%. But it was the amount of extra base hits that Snell gave up that had the greatest impact on his ineffectiveness with an XBH% of 12.5%. So why would the Mariners want a guy who was doing so poorly? In 6 starts in triple A Indianapolis, Snell's ERA was a trim 0.96 and averaged 11.3 strikeouts per game. In fact he has been so dominant that even his WHIP was very good at 1.098 compared to 1.624 on the Pirates. It's this kind of dominance that Pittsburgh had been hoping for on the major league level and Seattle is hoping for now. Perhaps Snell belongs in quadruple A but sadly for him, there is no such thing. Snell may very well be brought into the Mariner rotation but be careful to be so hasty to add him. The change in scenery may serve him well, but going to a better hitting AL and learning the batters may prove to a tougher task. Until Snell is able to put together some consistent, solid numbers at the major league level, the best plan is to let him be some other fantasy owner's problem.
Matt Cain (SP--Giants) It's hard to know if you've had a good day or a bad day when you pitch 9 innings of shutout baseball and walk away with a no decision. On Wednesday that's exactly what happened to Matt Cain against the Pirates as the Giants were unable to provide Cain any run support. Cain is having the best season of his career and while he was a good sleeper pick on draft day, he has excelled expectations and has been one of the best fantasy surprises this season. With Wednesday's start, Cain now leads the league in ERA with 2.18 and his other peripherals have been solid with K/9 at 7.3, BB/9 at 3.6 and averaging less than a home run per game. When Cain does give up a hit, not many have been going for extra bases as his XBH% stands at 6.4%. If you are wondering whether Cain really can be this good, he has a BHIP of .271 which is right around his career average. But a look at his xERA is where an eyebrow or two are raised because it currently stands at 3.01 which could indicate that he has been pitching over his head as he has a very high strand rate of 87.3% compared to his 75.5% career average. Be careful with Cain going forward. He has been averaging about 105 pitches per game this season and while he still is an excellent fantasy pitcher, he might be expected to hit a few rough outings in the future in what has otherwise been a season that has put Cain front and center on everyone's fantasy radar for the rest of this season and beyond.
Josh Johnson (SP—Marlins) Fantasy owners may start a petition to have Josh Johnson’s hitting stats count as well as his pitching stats. Johnson was a one-man show doing the job with his arm and his bat on Wednesday where he pitched 6 innings allowing 2 ER and got his 10th win of the season. Johnson also belted his 2nd home run of the year and drove in 3 in the process. Johnson continues to be a solid starter with an good ERA (2.87) and a good WHIP (1.12). He has been able to minimize damage this season with a 76% strand rate and has been equally miserly with an XBH% of 4.4% and HR/9 of 0.5. Johnson doesn’t get a lot of press playing for the Marlins, but he continues to be one of the more consistent pitchers in the NL. The Marlins offense may not always provide him with the support he deserves, but Johnson remains a must start in all formats as he as 18 quality starts under his belt out of a possible 21.
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