David Wright (3B--Mets)--Is David Wright having a terrific season? I guess it depends on who you ask. I will say it’s a very unique season. Yes, his BA is in the .340 area, which is wonderful, but where has all the power gone? Where are the runs driven in? And why all of the strikeouts? One explanation, we presume, would be the Mets new ballpark, CitiField. A ballpark where home runs die on the warning track and line drives are tracked down in the cavernous gaps. Through the end of June, CitiField has had 11% less run production than your average ballpark. So with this in mind, it would be assumed that Wright has changed his approach at the plate from hitting the ball with power, to hitting line drives. But there are a couple of worrisome trends. First, of Wright's 5 home runs, only 2 has been hit on the road. If Wright is indeed changing his approach at CitiField, why is he changing it on the road? We should be seeing more home runs than 2. Second, and a little more concerning, is that Wright currently has a BHIP of .450. .450. That is so huge, I had to write it twice. And while balls hit in play is a relatively new statistic, no player in baseball history has had a high of a BHIP this far into the season as Wright. It's on par with well...like...hitting 70+ home runs in a season. Now, I'm not suggesting any comparison to the legitimacy of Wright with any players that hit 70+ home runs in a season, but Wright's BHIP can't possibly stay that high. Something's gotta give. Once Wright's BHIP starts to deflate, so will his BA. And what are we left with: a good hitting ballplayer, who isn't hitting with any power, not driving in runs and is on his way to 166 strikeouts or more. So does that mean you should sit Wright on your bench? Of course not. But just be prepared that Wright may hit a really rough patch ahead. Hopefully, by then he will have rediscovered his home run stroke.
Jimmy Rollins (SS--Phillies)--Nothing like a little rest and relaxation to get you head cleared; to take a little time off and get back to work with a fresh attitude and a brand new approach, right? So it has been for Jimmy Rollins who went on a little vacation from the grind of the daily lineup as prescribed by manager Charlie Manual. The intent was that when he got back into the lineup, he would start to hit which he has been unable to do all year. Well, after his first game back, Rollins may need a longer vacation (and maybe a trip) because he went 0-5 with 2 strikeouts. And on Wednesday he went another 0-3. Sigh! His BA dropped to .205 and he is currently riding 0-27 slump. This season Rollins looks nothing like the former MVP of 2007 and quite frankly seemed to have had a comparatively off year n 2008. Never really on base percentage guy, Rollins has a career OBP of .329. But now Rollins is mired with a.250 OBP this season. The stat that jumps out at you is that his LD% is at 16.4% which is about 5% lower than his career average. Also, very suggestive is that Rollins seems to be trying to do his best Ryan Howard imitation as his FB% is up 5% over his career average which would indicate that Rollins is getting under the ball and not driving it. At this point in the season for fantasy owners that reached for Rollins as a top tier shortstop, I would expect improvement but don’t expect the 2007 Rollins to make an appearance anytime soon. If all goes well, perhaps Rollins can muster up enough offense to put together a season that looks closer to 2008. If you have other shortstop option, play them; otherwise fantasy owners will just have to ride this out or try to work out a trade based Rollins’ potential value.
Brandon Webb (SP--Diamondbacks)--Early on Wednesday, if you were listening close enough, you made have heard a collective sigh drift over the Arizona desert. That collective sigh might have extended to fantasy owners of Brandon Webb. Or maybe not. The good news is that Webb does not expect to undergo surgery and all of the fantasy owners that have been holding on to Webb, just aching to have an opportunity to use him in 2009, may get their wish. The bad news is that it might not be until September. Webb is an elite pitcher when healthy and certainly is a must start option in all league formats as he is provides low ERA, WHIP, nice control, high strikeouts and collects wins. Everything you want from a pitcher. But here's the conundrum: what does the fantasy owner do with Webb from now until September? Normally, I’m looking and writing about statistically trends to look at the hot/cold players that may be of value for the fantasy team. But let’s talk fantasy strategy for a change. Because with Webb, here is where you earn you're fantasy manager stripes and where your season could be won or lost based upon such an important decision. If you are lagging behind in your league and you need to do something drastic to pull yourself up out of the doldrums, now might be the perfect opportunity to deal Webb to that owner who smells victory is within his grasp. In return you get at least two solid, contributing players who can give your league leader a run for his money. If you are leading your league, do you consider trading Webb for a couple of players who will solidify your lineup and push you over the edge and leave the rest of the competition completely in the dust? Or do you hold onto Webb for the final push? As good as Webb is, you don't know how he will respond coming off the DL and if the Diamondbacks are not contending, chances are they are not going to push Webb to do too much this season and may want to hold him back. My gut feeling is that you should try to deal him to that greedy owner and extract some quality talent in exchange. Sell Webb high now, especially with this fresh news of him returning for the end of the season. Happy shopping!
Jair Jurrjens (SP—Braves)—When looking at the Braves pitching staff, Javier Vazquez is putting together a terrific year, but the pitcher on that staff that seems to warrant more attention than he has gotten is Jair Jurrjens. He would make my All-Star team. On Wednesday, Jurrjens pitched 7 innings of 1 hit ball, allowing 1 ER and recording 6K. He lowered his ERA down to 2.73 and in case anybody hasn’t noticed, Jurrjens has not had at any point in the season, an ERA that has reached above 3.00. In fact, there has only been one game that Jurrjens allowed 4 ER which has been the most in a game this season. His BHIP stands at .294, so it’s not like the low ERA is a fluke. But where he has been most effective is that when he gives up hits, he has avoided given up extra base hits and the long ball. In fact, his XBH% is a 6.6% and he only allows 1 home run every 2 games. Consequently he has a very good LOB% of over 76%. At 23, Jurrjens is becoming a terrific, quality pitcher that was more then likely a sleeper on draft day. If you were lucky enough to pick him up, then you obviously know that he continues to be a must start in all fantasy formats.
Adam Wainwright (SP—Cardinals)—If I would have told you that Adam Wainwright on Wednesday was going to pitch 9 innings, strikeout 12 (a career high) and allow 1 ER, you probably would have bet a New York steak that he would have come away with the win. Well, you would have had to cough up some money to pay for that steak because you would have been wrong. While he didn’t get the win, he also didn’t get the loss as Wainwright was locked up in a pitcher’s deal with Matt Cain and the Giants. Wainwright has been one of the more consistent pitchers in the league and has been a nice surprise as he has really come into his own this season. One of the things I love most about Wainwright, more than the 3.32 ERA and the way he throws first pitch strikes 61% of the time, or strands runners on base at a rate of 76.7%. The thing I am most impressed with in regards to Wainwright is that he gives you innings. He has put together 15 consecutive starts where he has pitched 6 innings or more. That says a lot about his ability to keep his team in games and give fantasy owners opportunities to collect wins. He continues to be a must start in all fantasy formats.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
