Mark Reynolds:
I continue to be amazed by Reynolds development. Depsite making few improvements to his K:BB Ratio, an area most experts thought he’d need to vastly improve to maintain consistent success, Reynolds has taken giant steps forward in 2009. A jump in his extra base hit rate from 10.9% to an elite 12.6% combined with a sudden willingness in the base-running department (23 attempts) has outweighed the continued high K Totals (33+%) and base-running gaffes (just 60% success rate). For fantasy owners its provided Top 20 overall value as Reynolds has been able to keep his BA at an acceptable rate thanks to a .354 BABIP. At 26 fantasy owners will likely ooh and aah over Reynolds age 27 potential next season but the combination of good fortune and massive jump in power rates suggest this may be the career year. Reynolds will likely put together a well respected career, but 2009 is likely going to be the pinnacle and those in dynasty formats that can move Reynolds for more “elite” talents, should consider doing so now. I don’t believe his value will ever be higher. He’ll continue to be quite good, but Top 20 player overall? I don’t think he’ll replicate that value.
Garrett Jones:
I remain skeptical of Jones long-term success but its clear he deserves attention in the interim at the very least as a “ride-the-hot-streak” guy. Jones stayed absurdly hot going 3-4 on Thursday with a 2B and 2 more RBI’s. He now has multi-hit games in 7 of his 18 games since call-up and has knocked out 9 HR’s and a ridiculous 22.5% extra base hit rate since being promoted. None of this is sustainable given his minor league track record (consistent mid .800’s OPS) but owners in all formats may as well hop aboard for the time being. A .391 BHIP% is boosting the average quite a bit as well, so eventually the rug will be pulled out from under him, but for the time being Jones deserves a look in all leagues.
Colby Rasmus:
Rasmus has been extremely streaky this season and currently he’s in the midst of an ugly 5-42 slump that has dropped his average to .262. Though the hot/cold nature of Rasmus first full season has been frustrating, there is some upside amidst the recent struggles. During the cold stretch Rasmus has posted a .60 EYE and walked 6 times, for a walk rate just over 12%. This rate is consistent with his minor league rate and actually indicates some improvement in approach despite the struggles. With just a .236 BHIP%, Rasmus also has some room for growth in his singles luck. Improving plate discipline, continued strength in his extra base hit rate, and capacity for some good fortune are all reasons to be high on the young Rasmus despite the recent extended cold stretch.
Cole Hamels:
I keep declaring Hamels as one of the premier buy low SP candidates, but he continues to suffer from some poor luck. Despite allowing just 6 base-runners in 7 innings, 3 of them found their way across home plate. Hamels posted another solid 6:2 K:BB Ratio, while throwing 69 of his 114 pitches for strikes, but allowed 3 ER’s thanks to two bad pitches in the 4th inning (a 2B and 2 run HR). Despite posting just a 4.23 ERA over the last 2 months, he’s produced a sparkling 46:11 K:BB Ratio 61 2/3 innings. The K Rate is slightly down, but the mediocre results are largely the result of a .348 BHIP% and 0.69 Strand Rate. At some point this season, Hamels is going to run off a string of starts that corrects both of these numbers and the ERA will creep back into the high 3’s. I continue to suggest buying low as a #1 starter at the price of a #2-#3.
Martin Prado:
Prado picked up another hit on Thursday going 1-2 and collecting two more BB’s. He’s now hit safely in 19 of his last 21 games, reaching base 46 times in those 21 games. The incredible consistency in getting on-base has jump-started the Braves offense and led to rather outstanding Run Totals. Over the last month, he’s tied for 7th in all of baseball in Runs. For teams that need batting average help and Runs scored, Prado’s the most valuable FA available on the waiver wire and a player that should be owned in most formats. There won’t be much production in the way of HR’s and RBI’s, but Prado won’t hurt you there either as a MI option. He’s highly underrated and should be pursued over disappointing MI options like Rafael Furcal and Jhonny Peralta even though he doesn’t have the name value.
