Bronson Arroyo:
Arroyo’s struggled all season battling a declining K Rate, increasing BB Rate and general overall decline, but for the last 2 outings; he’s been spectacular. Arroyo started off the 2nd half right where he left the first half pitching 7 shutout innings against the Brewers. Arroyo’s inconsistency can be difficult to deal with and is one of the main reasons I’m rarely an Arroyo owner. In 19 starts this season, he’s had 7 starts in which he’s allowed 0 or 1 ER and another 9 starts in which he’s allowed 5 or more ER’s. It’s really impossible to predict whether a gem or a blowup is coming as matchups appear irrelevant. In 3 starts against the Brewers this year he’s now 1 ER in 13 1/3 innings in two of the starts and then gave up 9 ER’s in just 1 inning in the other outing. Run him out there at your own risk as you’re just as likely to get a disastrous outing as you are a gem.
Martin Prado:
I’ve spent a lot of time this season talking about the value of BA protection from the MI slot, but haven’t yet touched on Martin Prado. Prado had an underwhelming minor league career largely due to a lack of power production (.393 minor league Slug), but at the big league level he’s shown vast improvements in his power (.453 Slug) and in his batting EYE (.83), and at age 25 he’s proving his worth not only in his flexibility but with his bat. Prado went 2-5 with another 2B and 2 more Runs on Friday night, raising his 2009 line to .330/.394/.508. Some of this is aided by good fortune (.347 BABIP), but a 1.11 EYE, 12.7% extra base hit rate, and very average .261 BHIP% suggest much of this is real. Prado’s quietly putting together another breakout season from the MI position. He should be owned in all leagues, especially with some nice added flexibility, at the very least as a BA/Run producing MI.
Garrett Jones:
Jones was all the Pirates offense needed on Friday night as he hit a pair of book-end solo HR’s in the 1st and 14th innings to give the Pirates a 2-1 win. Jones has been extremely productive since getting the call, knocking out 7 HR’s in just 48 AB’s and even swiping 3 bags. This is picking up from where he left off at AAA where he posted 12 HR’s and 14 SB’s in just 277 AB’s this season before the call-up. Despite the immediate success I remain a bit skeptical. At age 28, he was posting just an .850 OPS at AAA this year with an ugly .38 EYE. He’s shown great power so far and the good HR-SB combo at AAA bodes well for some better fantasy value than real value, but Jones has also benefited from an extreme 44% HR/FB Rate. For now he’s a must-own in NL Only leagues if only to ride the hot streak, but ultimately I think he settles in closer to an .800 OPS rather than the .800 Slugging % he’s currently posting. If Minor league pitchers could hold Jones eager approach down in the mid .800’s OPS, I have to think major league pitchers will catch on once he gets around the league.
Cole Hamels:
Sometimes it’s just not your year. Hamels was cruising through 5 innings against the Marlins before the skies opened in South Florida, bring a long rain delay. Hamels had thrown 52 of his 68 pitches for strikes, allowing just a Solo HR and 3 Singles in 5 innings of work. He struck out 5 and walked 1, leaving with a 4-1 lead. The lead wouldn’t last as the Phillies bullpen struggled late and Hamels was robbed of his 6th win. We’ve noted throughout the season how Hamels has actually shown improvement from a skill perspective this year but run into horrible luck, including a .350+ BHIP%. He remains one of the best buy-low SP candidates in fantasy.
Troy Tulowitzki:
Tulo’s working on his 2nd consecutive month with a .900+ OPS and added to it with a 2-4 effort that included 2 Runs on Friday night. Tulo’s had an interesting year at the plate as both his K and BB Rates have jumped up considerably, but fewer balls in play has been mitigated by a huge jump in his extra base hit rate (11.1%). For comparison’s sake, Tulo’s breakout campaign in 2007 came with just an 8.5% Rate. His dreadful start to the season coupled with some poor luck has mostly hidden just how great he’s really been this year. He’s now settled in and hitting back in the middle of the Rockies lineup and looks like a Top 5 SS option from here out.
