Seth Smith:
Seth Smith continues to get the raw end of the Colorado OF rotation. A commitment to get youngsters Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler AB’s and Ryan Spilborghs dominance against LHP leaves Smith as the odd man out in most occasions, despite posting a career minor league OPS of .885 and posting a spectacular .919 OPS heading into Thursday night’s game. Smith was able to get some playing time as the Rockies gave Brad Hawpe a night off traveling back from St. Louis and Smith promptly rewarded them with a HR, 2 Runs, and 2 RBI’s. He’s shown elite plate command, posting more BB’s than K’s and is one of the more underrated OF options that is widely available. If the playing time ever comes, Smith is going to be an impact bat off FA, so those teams with extra roster room and considering a stash should look at Smith as a potential option.
Chris Volstad:
Volstad’s made almost every improvement I was hoping to see from him coming into the season when I pegged him as a sleeper. Volstad’s cut down the BB’s significantly, going from .43 down to .27, while increasing his K Rate from .62 to .72. Both are significant as he’s done so while maintaining his great GB Rate (over 51%). So with all of these improvements (including a WHIP at 1.23), why is Volstad sitting at 6-9 with a 4.53 ERA? One reason: the long-ball. After surrendering 3 more HR’s (which accounted for all 4 runs on Thursday night), Volstad has now given up 20 HR’s in 19 starts. A HR/FB Rate above 18% suggests some extremely poor luck in this area and a career HR Rate of 0.5 HR/9 at the minor league level, suggests his current 1.58 HR/9 is a bit flukish. He’s an excellent buy-low candidate and roster-worthy in all formats. I’ve drawn the comparison before but I think Derek Lowe is the right type of expectation for fantasy owners as his peripherals look identical to Lowe’s 2007 and 2008 seasons. Volstad will get two favorable outings next week in SD and at Dodger Stadium, two big parks that should also help reign in those difficulties with the HR’s.
Homer Bailey:
I know scouts have always loved Bailey’s ceiling and I know his last two starts coming into the break were stellar against the Cardinals and Phillies, but I’ve just never been a big believer in young Homer. Bailey’s stuff has often been better than his production as his 9.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 at the minor league level don’t scream elite prospect. At the major league level command has always been an issue up until the last two starts when he dazzled with just 2 BB’s in 13+ innings, but even in those stellar outings he relied far too heavily on the Fly ball, recording 18 Fly Outs to just 10 Ground Outs. This suggests without elite command, Bailey will run into some issues in Cincinnati and elite command has never been his thing. This was the case on Thursday as Bailey walked 4 and surrendered two deep fly balls that resulted in 5 runs (one a HR, the other a 2B). Bailey left in time for the bullpen to come in and allow all of his inherited runners to score leaving him with 7 ER’s in just 5 1/3 innings. Bailey needs to either get more ground balls or show sustained improvements in command to be a consistent major league starter and until then I recommend avoiding the hype as I don’t see him figuring it out anytime soon.
Edwin Encarnacion:
I’m a sucker for Edwin Encarnacion and I’m going to continue to tout him until all of you are sucked into this thing alongside me. Encarnacion went 3-3 with a HR, 4 RBI’s, and another BB on Thursday and since returning has posted a .324/.385/.595. As I’ve mentioned before he’s made strides in his EYE, Slugging %, and FB Rates over the last 3 years, but hasn’t been able to yet transition the improved peripherals into improved production. At some point things are going to click and Encarnacion is going to all of the sudden be an elite 3B option. I’ve compared him in the past to Aramis Ramirez and I continue to see those similarities and continue to advise owners to buy on the cheap.
Derek Lowe:
The declining peripherals are flashing some big warning signs around Derek Lowe and they continued on Thursday night. Against a rather uninspiring Mets lineup, Lowe struggled. He walked 3 and allowed 8 base-runners in 6 innings, while striking out just 2. He finished with a “quality start” and 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP for the outing which isn’t so bad, but given the opponent and poor peripherals it’s disconcerting. Lowe’s K Rate has dropped down to .54 this season, while his BB Rate has jumped up to .33. In addition his GB Rate has dipped back down to 53% after sitting near 60% for the last few years. All of these signs point to Lowe becoming more of an Aaron Cook type GB pitcher than the fantasy asset we had come to expect. I think he’s a sell candidate in all formats as his name value says he should be owned everywhere but his peripherals and production suggest he’s a borderline roster-worthy back-end option in mixed leagues.
