Victor Martinez (C—Indians)—Cheer up Victor Martinez owners. You knew that at some point he was going to have to slow down. You didn’t think he was going to bat .350 the whole season, did you? A huge bonus compared to last year is that Martinez has already belted 7 times his home run output for all of last year. And while he is currently battling a tough slump, he still has been having any outstanding year. But it’s been a chilly past couple of weeks as Martinez has been pretty cold. Over the last 12 games he has batted just .095 but has been able to push a couple of home runs over the wall. You have to give Martinez credit for doing so well before this recent slump as he still has a solid line of .308/.393/.523. And for a power hitter, he has an excellent EYE of 1.02 which has certainly helped keep his average high. His BHIP is now at .321, very close to his career average of .317, so chances are his slump won’t continue too much longer. Keep him active as he is sure to turn things around and even though the hits aren’t coming in droves right now, he still works out ways to get on base and create runs with a very good RC27 of 7.9.
Josh Hamilton (OF—Rangers)—Rangers fans were hoping for a different kind of fireworks display on July 4th with the return of Josh Hamilton. But Hamilton did not return from the DL as expected on Saturday and has been put off for an extra day. So far this season, Hamilton hasn’t lived up to the hype and has been a disappointment to fantasy owners. His line of .240/.296/.456 does not measure up to his career averages or even close to last year’s accomplishments. However, if fantasy owners were expecting Hamilton to go on a tear like last year, I would temper my expectations. Hamilton had a very high BHIP last year of .333. His current BHIP is nestled at .264, so we can definitely expect improvement (especially if healthy). Personally, I think that Hamilton was playing over his head last year. The home runs will still be there as he is close to his last year’s average of 4.4%, but with a CT% of 67% and a career EYE of 0.47, I would expect a drop in BA and RBI. Still, he is a great ball player and worthy of a must start. Just monitor whether or not he is able to make it into the Ranger lineup on Sunday because otherwise he may be a risky start for the upcoming week.
Anthony Swarzak (SP—Twins)—Yes, once again we see the pattern of a player with a poor performance, mysteriously winding up on the DL the next day. The Twins are the latest team to take advantage (or abuse?) the DL and placed Kevin Slowey on the list and recalled Anthony Swarzak to take his spot in the rotation. The last we saw Swarzak, he had pitched the game of his career and was unceremoniously shipped to Triple A after the start. Yes, the cold hand of reality gave Swarzak a good slap in the face that day. But he is back for a return shot. The rookie had a couple of rough outing but has also balanced them out with some solid performances. His numbers have been respectable in his few outings while not outstanding. He has managed to put together a 3.90 ERA and a solid LOB% of 76.9%. He has also kept opposing hitter to a .252 batting average. Being a contact pitcher with a CT% of 87%, the strikeouts won’t be impressive but he does seem to do some nice damage control with an average of just a home run per 9 innings. I wouldn’t run out and buy Swarzak right now, but we have seen what he is capable of in some of his outings. He has been solid in Triple A Rochester with a 2.25 ERA. Keep a watch on him and with the proper match ups, he may be worth taking a shot on here and there while Slowey is coming back from his “injury”.
Jason Bay (OF—Red Sox)—It’s a good thing that David Ortiz’s bat is coming around, because Jason bay has taken a little vacation these past week from carrying the bulk of the Red Sox offense all season long. Over the past 8 games going into Saturday, Bay has been hitting .088, with 1 RBI and striking out at a clip of 47% of the time. That’s not so good. With this recent slump his BA has dipped down to .262 but still maintains the league lead in RBI with 70. What’s really encouraging is that Bay has a BHIP of .292 which is about 30 points below his career average. We should see Bay’s BA climb closer to the 280’s and 290’s which means he could contain to build on his RBI total. One of the factors that have lead to his high RBI total is that 51% of his base hits have gone for extra bases. With an RC/27 of 7.1, I’m expecting a slight improvement upon that with his BHIP average improving. Bay contains to be a premier player this year and with all of the offense that surrounds him, he will continue to reap the benefits. I expect this current slump to be short and he should continue a very solid and productive 2009.
Hank Blalock (3B—Rangers)—Hank Blalock has had a bit of a hot and cold kind of year. But I’m sensing that he might be heating up again, so I am putting fantasy owners on alert. Over the past week, Blalock is batting .300, which is good, but he has hit 4 home runs in the past 6 games with 7 RBI. Blalock is on pace for 35 home runs this year and while his OBP is pretty dismal at .293 and has a poor EYE of 0.29, the slugging is at a nice, robust .547 with an OPS of .840. You are obviously going to take a hit in strike outs, as Blalock strikeouts 18% of the time, but his XBH% is an impressive 12.8% so when he is hitting the ball, he has been able to make an impact. But with a BHIP of .232, I think there is much more to come from Blalock as he is more then 60 points below his career BHIP. I’d go after Blalock now as I think he is at the start of an upswing and there could be some strong, offensive numbers ahead.
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