Marc Rzepczynski (SP—Blue Jays) Marc Rzepczynski nailed down the first victory of his career and did it impressive fashion against a tough team in the Red Sox. Rzepczynski has only logged 18 innings in 3 starts this season but he has put together solid enough numbers to spark a fantasy owner’s interest. So far, he has only allowed 5 ER and has averaged 8 strikeouts per nine innings while serving up only 1 home run. His BB/9 is an area that could use some improving as he has been allowing 5.5 BB’s per game. But with a LOB% of 79%, fantasy owners need to hope that it remains that high because with a base hit or two in the wrong situation those walks will convert into runs. He has been able to avoid damage thus far with an opponent BA of .175 and an excellent opponent SLG of .254. But be wary because once a fuller scouting report is developed on Rzepczynski, expect to see more sobering statistics as he goes through the rookie acclimation process to the big league. No, Rzepczynski is not a household name yet (thank goodness because we’d have to learn how to pronounce it) however monitor his upcoming starts as he has planted himself firmly in the Blue Jay rotation for now but expect some rougher outings ahead.
CC Sabathia (SP—Yankees) It’s good to know that there are certain things you can count on in life. For instance, it’s nice to know that the right amount of root beer and just the right amount of vanilla ice cream will make the perfect root beer float. Or that if you continuously wet your finger and try sticking it in an electrical socket, eventually you will get shocked. You can count on it. While it might be presumptuous to say it’s a certainty that CC Sabathia will turn into the second-half-of the-season-lights-out-ace he has been in past years, based upon Saturday’s win, he is off to a very good start. Looking at Sabathia’s second half stats over the last three years shows an impressive track record of 21 wins and 13 losses with an ERA of 2.31. Over that time he has struck out 299 batters in 326.1 innings and has held the opposition to a .241 BA. Playing half his games at Yankee stadium (aka “The Great Softball Field in the Bronx”), it’s impressive that Sabathia has been able to put together a very good 3.66 ERA, especially playing in the division he plays in. If his trend for second half excellence continues, we may see an improvement on these numbers. With a solid 3 year sampling, there is every reason for fantasy owners to expect, if not with certainty, that Sabathia will deliver similar numbers and continue to roll.
Sidney Ponson (SP—Royals) Desperate times call for desperate measures and now that Gil Meche is on the DL, the Royals need a pitcher who will come through in the clutch and fill that missing void of their #2 pitcher. The Royals have called on the one, the only, (insert drum roll)… Sidney Ponson! Yes Sidney Ponson has come to the rescue. (Yawn) Kansas City is Ponson’s 5th ballclub in 3 years and that should tell you the whole story. There have been brief moments of mediocrity over this time period, but for the most part Ponson has been a disaster when he has taken the mound. This season Ponson has put together a 1-5 record and a portly 7.27 ERA along with a stout 1.731 WHIP. Opponents are batting .328 against him with a strong OPS of .851. In fact, Ponson has not held opponents to a batting average under .300 since 2003. So while the Royals have taken desperate measures with the recall of Ponson, you should not resort to such low measures. Take a pass on Ponson and don’t be fooled by an outing here or there of mediocrity as he will more then likely hurt your fantasy team in the long run.
Scott Baker (SP—Twins) On Saturday, Scott Baker threw one of his best games of the season against the Rangers allowing 1 ER over 8 innings while striking out 8. Baker has been a bit of an enigma this season where he has shown flashes of brilliance as he did on Saturday and then the next outing throw a complete dud. Baker’s season has been a bit of a disappointment as he sports an ERA over 5.00 but despite the high ERA, his WHIP is at a reasonable 1.21. Baker does give up a fair amount of hits, allowing about 1 an inning but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks as he allows fewer than 2 a game. In fact his K/BB ration is almost 4 to 1. But here’s the real key indicator that makes it seem that Baker should have a better second half: his ERC is at 3.90 for an ERC% of 0.72. This means that he has pitched significantly better than his 5.10 ERA; over a full run better. The problem is that Baker has a very low LOB% of 62.8% which means that he hasn’t been shutting the door when runners get on base. Batters have been hitting .333 against Baker when he is working with men on base and have a 1.030 OPS against him. Those are “Pujolsian” numbers. If Baker can start to bring up his LOB%, keep those runners from scoring, look for more effectiveness the second part of the season as he has had some very strong outings that shows he can be dominate at times. Watch for him to be a second half sleeper.
Juan Rivera (OF—Angels) With Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero already struggling with injuries, the Angels may need to add one more to the list as Juan Rivera left Saturday’s game with a leg injury. Suddenly the Angels are competing with the Mets for first place for the all-injury team. But Rivera’s departure leaves a potential hole in many fantasy owner’s lineup as he has been a surprise fantasy star this season. Rivera has been enjoying one of his best seasons as he has been on pace for 29 HR, almost 100 RBI and batting a neat .308. One of the significant improvements to Rivera this year is that he has increased his CT% to 87% which is up 3% over his career average. With as strong as his season has been, his OBP is only fair at .351 which is reflected by his lack of BB with only 21. But with an OPS of .869, it’s a tribute to what a solid season he is having despite the fact that his OBP is only moderate. While it’s uncertain the extent of the leg injury, fantasy owners should be prepared to start formulating plans for next week if Rivera’s injury keeps him out of the Angels lineup. Monitor his progress closely and is he is healthy make sure to get Rivera back in the lineup as he has become a surprise must start in all formats.
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