Fausto Carmona (SP – Indians)
Carmona has certainly surprised with his immediate effectiveness in the minors. He was dominant in his lone Single-A and lone Double-A start, and now has looked very solid in his three starts at Triple-A (3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 2.90 GO/AO). The two numbers that immediately jump out at me are the BB rate and the GB rate. Carmona’s control had completely gone out the window in ’09 (6.08 BB/9), and his GO/AO had slipped down to 2.19 (very low for him). It is still quite early, but it appears as though Carmona has made very sudden and meaningful improvements upon his demotion. It is time he popped back on your radar screen in AL-only leagues.
Sergio Mitre (SP – Yankees)
Sergio Mitre has been called up from Triple-A to replace Chien-Ming Wang in the rotation. It has been awhile since we have heard from Mitre, as he has been recovering from TJ surgery for the past year. In Mitre’s last season in the bigs, he posted a 4.65 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 4.83 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, and a 2.61 GO/AO rate. Clearly, Mitre does not have electric stuff, but he can be effective if can limit the walks and produce ground balls at a high rate with his sinker. He has done just that at Triple-A this season, and has posted quite spectacular numbers (2.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 2.96 GO/AO). Perhaps we are seeing a Josh Johnson effect with the Tommy John surgery in Mitre. It’s unlikely, but still a possibility. Additionally, Mitre’s strong ground ball tendencies could help to mitigate the effects of Yankee stadium. With the way Mitre has pitched so far in ’09, he is worth a speculative add in AL-only leagues. I’d just be sure to leave him on your bench for the first start or two.
Lucas French (SP – Tigers)
Lucas French managed to scratch and claw his way through 5 innings while only allowing 1 earned run. He walked 3 and struck out 3, which moves his K/BB to 8/6 through 16 innings as a starter. French’s ERA was lowered to a ridiculously fortunate 1.89 (his FIP is 5.06). French is currently skating by with a .241 BABIP, and a completely insane 98.7% strand rate. French could have back of the rotation value in AL-only leagues, but he is going to get shellacked here in the near future as regression rears its ugly head.
Nick Markakis (OF – Orioles)
Nick Markakis got his 2nd half started on the right foot by hitting a homer and a double on Friday night. Nick has been a fairly large disappointment this season with just 9 HR and 2 SB. His EYE (.55) has taken a step back in ’09, but he has actually posted a superior contact rate in ’09 (86.1%) than in ’08 (84.6). His HR/FB rate is roughly 5% under his career average, but the fact that his extra base hit rate is still a healthy 10.3% in ’09 serves to greatly allay my concern in the power department. Markakis is far too talented to take a step backward in his age 25 season. Expect a large 2nd half.
A.J. Burnett (SP – Yankees)
A.J. Burnett looked awful last night by allowing 5 walks and striking out just 1 through 6 innings. In his last 2 starts, Burnett has a quite ominous 3/9 K/BB ratio. I want to repeat my sentiment from July 4th, and urge you to sell Burnett if a reasonable offer is on the table. Career worst peripherals, a strand rate that is due for regression, and his injury history are three very compelling reasons not to own Burnett.
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