John Smoltz (SP—Red Sox) – There are a lot of red flags where John Smoltz is concerned. First, he’s 42; he’s no spring chicken and is certainly in the twilight of a hall of fame career. Second, he’s returning for an injury that sat him down the better part of last year. Arm injuries + aging ballplayer=many red flags. But Smoltz…well, he’s Smoltz and you have to figure if anyone can overcome the odds, it’s a guy like him. So far, in his few appearances, it would appear that he has been coming up on the short end of the stick as he has 0-2 record and an ERA that could use a lot of trimming at 6.60 and a sizable WHIP of 1.533. But all is not bad in Smoltzyland. There’s some good stuff going on that I think is worth pointing out. While his H/9 is atrocious (12.0), his BB/9 and K/9 are pretty solid at 1.8 and 6.0 respectively. Going deeper into Smoltzyland, we also find that he has not allowed a home run this year. Granted, he only has 15 innings under his belt, but keeping the ball in the ballpark is key. So while we are looking around Smoltzyland, let’s go over to the BHIP area where we see that he has been pretty unlucky with a BHIP of .370 and you know that’s going to come down some. After all, there’s a lot of history with Smoltz to know it won’t remain that high. And lastly, in Smoltzyland just a little down the road from the BHIP, are two very interesting indicators that would seem to suggest brighter days ahead from Smoltz. Smoltz’s ERC is at a decent 4.64 compared to his ERA of 6.60. Taking out the runs scored, the ERC is really more indicative of how he has pitched. Problem is that his LOB% is 54.2%, so many of those base runners are scoring. His career LOB% is up around 74%, so we should see some improvement there. The other interesting indicator is Smoltz’s FIP which is a 2.52. Wow, what a difference between his FIP and his ERA! So this would indicate that Smoltz has been getting the job done independently of the fielder. And with a high BHIP, some of those batted balls in the future should find leather. I’d be inclined to take a hard look at Smoltz and look at him as a second half sleeper compared to where he is right now. I see the clouds clearing away in Smoltzyland and you don’t want to miss the ride.
Matt Holliday (OF—A’s)—For a hitter, a move from Coors Field to the Oakland Coliseum is like going from eating a 18 oz. rib eye steak with mashed potatoes to eating a 4 oz. portion of broccoli and tofu. Yum! Yes, Matt Holliday has been on the “Oakland” diet and his stats are much leaner then his fat stats from Colorado. And while over the past 12 games Holliday has been able to hit a passable .262, he has only one extra base hit. Not complex math, here. One extra base hit. Yet, it’s difficult to make a case that it’s all Oakland, as Holliday’s power seems to have left him on the road too with only 4 home runs. But he has struggled more in Oakland than on the road as he has a traveling BHIP of .323 and at home it’s .292. And while it could be predicted his SLG might be lower (it’s now at .413 for the season vs. a career .538), his XBH% is not what it should be either in 2009 at 7.3% compared to career 11%. And perhaps the biggest indicator of Holliday’s struggling is a dwindling OPS that is now at .785 compared to a 2008 OPS of .947 and a 2007 .1.012. Personally, I’m very interested to see what happens with Holliday as the trade deadline approaches, as any move away from Oakland that might change his diet should help his numbers. But should he find himself in another pitcher-friendly park, I’d stay away from Holliday as I think his stats would continue to lose weight.
Joe Saunders (SP—Angels)—It seems that some players are more highly regarded not because of how they perform but because of the team they play for. Yankee and Red Sox players seem to be more coveted just because of who they play for rather then a player who might have a better stat line but on a weaker team. I’m of the opinion that Joe Saunders falls into that category as he plays for the always competitive Angels who have a reputation for strong pitching. But my feeling is that Saunders doesn’t really offer a fantasy owner much other then better chance to pick up a win here and then by virtue of the team he plays for. In his last 3 starts, Saunders has been horrendous allowing 18 ER in 14 innings for a 11.57 ERA (of course these are numbers that only Oliver Perez and Chien-Ming Wang would be proud of). This season Saunders has been very hittable with a HR/FB rate of 12.4%. In fact he leads the league in home runs allowed with 21. But Saunders doesn’t even offer a strong strikeout ratio at 5.1 per game and allows 3.1 BB/9. And what’s really troubling is that he has a LOB% of 75.6% which is pretty strong and above his career average. What’s going to happen when that LOB% starts to dip down a bit? I would only consider Saunders in the very deepest of mixed leagues and even then there are probably better options out there that can at least produce more strikeout and a lower WHIP. Just goes to show you that not all Angels have halos; at least Saunders halo seems be a tarnished one.
Johnny Damon (OF—Yankees)—At this point in the season Johnny Damon wishes they had built the new Yankee Stadium (aka The Great Softball Field in the Bronx) a long time ago. Damon is having perhaps one of the best power seasons of his career and his currently on a pace to hit 30 home runs. What’s interesting is that Damon normally known for his base stealing abilities has only 8 this season but seems to have replaced his speed for power as he has a SLG of .516 compared to a career average SLG of .438. In fact, Damon has benefitted from the new and improved Yankee stadium that his 12 home runs hit this year at home equals his total home run output at home for 2007 and 2008 combined. His CT% has slipped 3% from last year, yet is still very good 83%, But Damon seems tweaking his game to fit Yankee Stadium and taking something off the contact hitting for average and putting more to power as his XBH% is up to 10.8% compared to a career XBH% of 8.0%. Funny thing is that fantasy owners where probably drafting Damon this season as a guy with a reasonable decent EYE of 0.68 that would bat around .300 and steal 20+ bases. Little did they know they were getting Johnny Damon the home run hitter for the season. Damon has certainly upped his value this year and he is a must start in all fantasy formats.
Glen Perkins (SP—Twins)—While Glen Perkins’ overall record and stats are not overwhelming, 4.38 ERA, a 4-4 record, there are some strong indicators that show a great improvement in Perkins over last year. First, Perkins has been able to work 6 or more innings in 75% of his starts this year. Second, his control is improved with a very good BB/9 of 1.7 and a WHIP that is now at 1.270 compared to 2008’s WHIP of 1.470. And perhaps one of the biggest differences is that Perkins being a pitch to contact pitcher at a 87% CT, he has cut down on his long balls dramatically this year allowing less then 1 per game as opposed to last season when he would allow 1 and half per 9 innings. This seems attributed to his ability to induce the ground ball more this year, showing an improvement of 8.6% over last year, while cutting down on his line drives by 9%. But the real key is that even though his ERA stands at 4.38, he has pitched much better then his ERA would suggest with an ERC of 3.76. I think Perkins is a guy to keep your eye on and certainly when the match ups are right, he is worth a start. He appears to be an up and coming pitcher who may start to break out in the not to distant future and become a hot commodity.
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