Joe Saunders:
Back at the beginning of June I outlined the plan of attack with Joe Saunders, against bottom-half OPS teams in the league, he’s dominant, against top-half OPS teams in the league, he’s below average. Simply start him against bottom-half OPS teams and sit him against top-half OPS teams and you’ll reap the rewards of a “matchups” option. So heading into Week 13 with a two start week against Texas (ranked 5th) and Baltimore (ranked 12th), owners who elected to start Saunders were really rolling the dice. Unfortunately it came up snake eyes as Saunders posted his 2nd disaster start of the week, allowing 5 ER’s and 10 base-runners in just 5 1/3 innings. Saunders has struggled of late as 6 of his last 7 starts have come against top-half offenses. Next up on the list comes the Yankees, the top-ranked team in MLB in OPS, making it a must avoid start next week for Saunders owners. Stick to the formula and Saunders will offer 95-110 good innings, stray from the formula and you’ll get some very ugly results mixed in.
Brandon Morrow:
Pitching in a difficult environment on Sunday, Morrow limited the Red Sox to 3 ER’s in 6 innings while striking out 7. Perhaps most importantly for Morrow’s success he walked just 2 in the outing and threw 61% of his pitches for strikes. Coming off walking 11 in his first 16 2/3 innings as a starter, this was a positive step. The 7 strikeouts continue to show the dominance Morrow has shown throughout his brief major league career as he’s now struck out 25 in 22 2/3 innings. Unfortunately it wasn’t all good on Sunday as Morrow allowed 3 HR’s. With a GB Rate at just 40% this is going to be a problem for Morrow going forward. It will be mitigated by pitching in SEA, but in small ballparks against patient team Morrow remains a very risky option. His upside makes him a must own in AL only leagues and deep mixed leagues at the very least as a reserve to use in friendly home matchups, but for most mixed formats he’s not a viable play until he finds the plate more consistently. Though Morrow remains intriguing remember he posted just a 5.79 ERA and 1.46 WHIP as a starter last season.
Gio Gonzalez:
It’s an extremely small sample but the peripherals behind Gio Gonzalez’s 3 starts since returning the rotation have been fairly intriguing. In 14 2/3 innings, Gonzalez has struck out 19 and walked just 5, with a 1.67 GB:FB Ratio. Unfortunately it also comes with 23 Hits, 9 ER’s, and 3 HR’s for a 5.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. The WHIP and ERA in this short time-span are being inflated by horrible luck, but that doesn’t mean things are immediately going to turn for Gonzalez either. Gonzalez has posted a BB/9 above 4.5 at the AAA level and a 1.30 WHIP in nearly 200 innings. While the K Rates have been phenomenal, he’ll have to hone in the command to remain effective. The last 3 starts, though littered with bad luck are a good step forward, but a very small one at that. For now Gonzalez remains someone to watch, but dangerous play in anything but deep AL only leagues as the walks can lead to some explosive outings.
Joba Chamberlain:
I’m not sure how many more home starts I can sit through of Joba Chamberlain’s. Chamberlain was hurt by some poor defense on Sunday as just 3 of the 8 runs he allowed were earned, but more than anything his unwillingness to attack the strike zone is impeding his success at home. In 42 home innings this season, Joba has walked 25 and struck out 41 and averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. On the road he’s walked just 16 and struck out 33 in 42 2/3 innings and averaged just under 6 1/3 innings. At home he’s throwing just 57.2% of his pitches for strikes, while on the road the number bumps up to 60.5%. All of this points to a pitcher who is terrified of pitching to contact at the new Yankee Stadium and someone who really can’t be trusted at home right now. Next week he gets the Angels on the road in a start he probably deserves to be trusted in. For now until I see more consistent willingness to throw strikes at home and not nibble or try to strike everyone out, I’m going to sit Joba at home where I can. Until the strikes are thrown more consistently he’s going to be a liability in WHIP at the very least and while he has tremendous raw skills (7.87 K/9, 50% GB Rate), he MUST trust that stuff to be the type of fantasy asset we expected.
David DeJesus:
DeJesus went 3-5 on Sunday and extended his hitting streak to 8 games. He’s been extremely hot since June 7th, picking up hits in 18 of his last 24 games and raising his average from .232 to .254. DeJesus’ EYE has been down this season, but his extra base hit rate has risen and the batting average is largely down based on some poor luck (.216 BHIP%). As the luck turns the average and power production should improve. Even when those numbers improve DeJesus’ fantasy value is limited to AL Only leagues. His Run production has declined for 2 straight seasons and his limited production in SB’s has completely evaporated this season (only 3 attempts and 1 SB).
