Ricky Nolasco (SP – Marlins)
Ricky Nolasco is expected to be recalled from the minors and will start on Sunday in place of the injured Anibal Sanchez. I still firmly believe in Nolasco, as the peripherals from last year are largely still present this year (7.63 K/9; 2.68 BB/9). Those obviously should not be the numbers of a pitcher with an ERA of 9.07. Nolasco has been absolutely brutalized by a BABIP of .402 and a strand rate of 49.4%. He looked sharp in his two minor league starts with a 12/3 K/BB in 15 IP. I have been throwing low-ball offers at the Nolasco owner in my mixed league, and I recommend you do the same before the buying window closes.
Geovany Soto (C – Cubs)
On Friday, Lou Piniella stated that he plans on giving Geovany Soto a mental break by having him sit out the next few games. I want to take this opportunity to emphasize how unlucky Soto has been this year. He has improved his EYE from 0.51 last year to 0.77 this year; he has improved his LD rate (21% last year vs. 22% this year); and finally, he has improved his contact rate (74.7% last year vs. 75.8% this year). The root of Soto’s problems this year stem from a BABIP of .265 that is understated by almost 80 points. The lone concerning statistic for Soto is his extra-base hit rate, which has plummeted from 12.1% last year down to 3.9% this year. My feeling is that once a few more of his batted balls start avoiding leather, his game will round into form. He makes one of the best buy-low candidates at the moment.
Jimmy Rollins (SS – Phillies)
Just when I thought the snap-back was coming, J-Roll disappoints me by going 2 for his last 20. Rather than get caught up in his .100 BA in his last 4 games, I’m going to focus on the sole positive, which is the fact that he has only struck out once in these 20 at bats. This recent contact has brought his K rate back down to around his 3-year average. We are moving in baby-steps here, but I’ll take some progress where I can find it. Now, the bad news is that he has walked just once in his last 53 at bats. Rollins has never been a big walker, but I don’t think this is the best strategy for breaking out of a season-long slump. The bottom line is that J-Roll is simply too good to continue to bomb like this for much longer, and I will continue to recommend patience until I am blue in the face – or the hands I suppose.
Rich Harden (SP – Cubs)
Rich Harden is currently scheduled to throw his first rehab start on Sunday. If all goes according to plan (the biggest “if” imaginable), the Cubs are aiming to have him back in the big leagues by next Friday. Harden’s numbers thus far have been disappointing (4.74 ERA; 1.37 WHIP), but I don’t see any reason to worry since his BABIP is about 50 points higher this year than his 3-year average. His BB/9 (4.33) is slightly above his career rate, but his K/9 (10.92) is also above his career numbers. This has left his K/BB (2.52) right in line with his career average. I actually think that this DL stint may have been beneficial for Harden. Firstly, it is not arm related; and secondly, it will help to keep him fresh for the remainder of the season.
Carlos Gonzalez (OF – Rockies)
Carlos Gonzalez was not in the Rockies lineup on Friday night due to his flight being delayed. Drew had a nice write-up on Gonzalez yesterday, and since that time Jim Tracy has stated that he plans on giving Gonzalez 5 starts per week. I would venture a guess that he will be receiving the majority of the starts in LF, while also receiving some in CF. It looks as though Ryan Spilborghs will be moving into a utility role, and Dexter Fowler may lose an occasional start here or there. One thing seems certain – the Rockies are planning on giving Gonzalez ample opportunity to prove his worth. I’d upgrade him to an unequivocal add in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues.
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