Zach Duke - Zach Duke is, to put it simply, a microcosm of pitching in general. In 2005 (8-2, 1.81 ERA, .296 BABIP, 26.4% LD) you saw extremely lucky Duke. In 2006 and 2008 (15-29, 4.62 ERA, .327 BABIP, 20.4% LD) you had luck-neutral Duke. In 2007 (3-8, 5.53 ERA, .360 BABIP, 20.1% LD) you had unlucky Duke. So far here in 2009 we've got moderately lucky Duke, replete with a 7-4 record, a 3.10 ERA, and a .268 BABIP with a 19.2% LD rate. The moral of the story is that the fewer guys you strike out, the larger the range of your performances will be...primarily because of luck and defense. Selling high on the good luck and buying low on the bad is a reasonable strategy, even for a guy that is technically a #4 or a #5 like Duke.
Fernando Nieve - Fernando Nieve has been a prospect for the better part of the decade, so seeing him step in and shut the Yankees down for 6 2/3 innings isn't quite as stunning as the tabloids would have you believe. In reality, it didn't feel like Nieve was dominating: he only struck out two batters, and he allowed a couple of fly balls that were caught at the wall that would have changed his line considerably. Facts are facts however, and Nieve held one of the best offenses in the game to three singles, two walks, and a pop-up homer over 6 2/3 innings. Even if John Maine comes back healthy, Livan Hernandez is due to turn into a pumpkin any minute now, so Nieve will have a chance to prove his value. He's a neat little sleeper, as his 8.4 K/9 in almost 750 minor league innings will attest to nicely.
Derrek Lee - Watching the decline of one of your favorite players if always difficult, and it's been no different with me for Derrek Lee. Lee extended his hitting streak to 12 games with another pair of singles yesterday, but even during this string his ISO isn't over .200, so the power is just a fading memory. All of Lee's top comparables: Orlando Cepeda, Eric Karros, George Scott....they are all solid players who fell off the table between 32 and 34. Lee turns 34 in September, and unfortunately I would expect that he'll continue that trend very soon. I'd be looking to get what I could from him, especially in keeper leagues.
Jimmy Rollins - Another 1-20 skid has dropped Rollins right back to his recent lows, and there aren't too many signs that things will improve soon. I'll reiterate that some of this decline in performance is likely real, but there is no reason to assume that he won't come back from this. His most comparable players show quite a bit of longevity relative to the norm, so I'd still be a buyer on Rollins right now.
Roy Oswalt - Oswalt had his second solid start out of his past three yesterday, holding the D-Backs to a Chris Young homer over seven innings of work. He seemed very please with the outing, stating that it was the first time all season that he had more than one pitch that he felt he could command. If that's the case (all player comments should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt), I'm more inclined to believe the improvement in contact rate against and the slight velocity uptick than I am the control issues and the increase in HR rate, at least as far as projecting what to expect from Oswalt the rest of 2009. I'd be a buyer, but a tentative one.
