Casey McGehee:
McGehee stayed hot on Thursday knocking out his 3rd HR of the season in a 1-4 effort. He’s now hitting .414/.469/.672 here in June with 9 extra base hits in 58 AB’s (15.5% exbh rate). Unfortunately while the power rates are tremendous, they’re not here to stay. McGehee posted a career .409 Slugging % with an 8.7% extra base hit rate. As a 26 year old with an improving FB Rate there is some room for growth here but not this kind of jump. In addition his recent streak is aided by a .395 BHIP% and his season long .324 BHIP% and .395 BABIP suggest further regression. I stick with my original assessment on McGehee as a good “can’t hurt you type MI option” in NL Only leagues, but not much more upside than that. Feel free to ride the current hot streak, but be ready to jump off at the sign of trouble as there is serious regression left in his numbers once the league gets a better plan of attack on him.
Chad Billingsley:
Paul touched on potential negative repercussions associated with Billingsley’s overuse early in the season and it appears we’re beginning to see some of them. After a string of 12 consecutive starts in which Billingsley’s thrown 105 or more pitches, Billingsley’s K:BB Ratio has gone from 2.36 to 1.06. In addition here in June through 5 starts, Billingsley has seen his K Rate drop to .75 (down from .95) and his BB Rate has jumped to .52 (up from .46). The command isn’t as big of a concern as Billingsley’s always battled command issues, but the dropping K Rate is making him just a “good” pitcher instead of an Ace. So far he hasn’t been hurt too much thanks to some good luck in his Strand Rate (in June), but further erosion in his ERA and WHIP are coming if Billingsley can’t get the K Rate back on track. As a big believer in abuse leading to peripherals erosion, I’m moderately concerned about Chad’s production the rest of the way.
Russell Martin:
Martin’s declining power continues to be one of the more under-played stories of the fantasy season. As a speed-dependent catcher we always assumed Martin’s value would slowly decline as he aged, but while he’s kept up the speed production (7 SB’s), the power has completely evaporated. Martin’s gone from a .469 Slugging % to .396 to just .301 this season. A measly 4.3% extra base hit rate is the culprit as Martin’s tallied just 9 2B’s and 1 HR. The 1.9% HR/FB Rate would suggest some poor luck associated with this drop-off, but the corresponding drop in 2B’s rate suggests the power outage is real across the board. Without the extra base hit production, Martin’s batting average has plummeted down to .249 even with a .268 BHIP% and .305 BABIP that suggest this level of batting average production is actually sustainable given the power outage. Martin owners should be legitimately concerned here and if you can get name value for Martin, I’d suggest doing so.
Johan Santana:
Johan battled command issues on Thursday and worked around 10 base-runners over 7 innings, but pitched well enough to pick up the W, limiting the Cardinals to just 1 ER. Santana only struck out 3 continuing the somewhat concerning trend of an eroding K Rate. He’s now struck out 3 or less in his last 5 starts and has posted just a middling 14:10 K:BB Ratio in 5 June starts encompassing 30 1/3 innings. Whether it’s the blister, the knee, or something else Johan’s not performing at the same level right now as we’re used to.
Jordan Zimmermann:
We’ve spent a lot of time talking about how Zimmermann’s production hadn’t caught up to his really stellar peripherals but over the last 4 starts (3 against AL East Opps: Tor, TB, Bos), Zimmermann’s allowed just 5 ER’s. He overwhelmed the Red Sox on Thursday night allowing just 6 base-runners in 7 innings, while striking out 6 and walking 1. The outing dropped his ERA to 4.65 and evened his record at 3-3 but further regression remains. With a 0.99 K Rate and 0.28 BB Rate, Zimmermann’s showing skills of an elite starting pitcher. He gives up a few too many line drives (25%) and fly balls (36%), but the .342 BHIP% and 0.59 Strand Rate are ridiculously skewing his results in a negative way. He remains a terrific under the radar pitching acquisition.
