Adrian Gonzalez:
Gonzalez busted out of a slump in a big way on Thursday going 4-4 with a 2B, HR, and 2 RBI’s. As usual he was the majority of the Padres offense accounting for half the Runs scored and half the RBI’s, but it was enough to carry the Padres to a victory. Gonzalez’s improvements this year have been startling (HR/FB% increasing over 33.5%, EYE up over 1.00 after nearly doubling his BB Rate and dropping his K Rate), but even while he does an Albert Pujols impression in the worst hitting park in the big leagues; he’s limited by his supporting cast. It hasn’t hurt him too much year-to-date as he’s racked up 46 Runs and 45 RBI’s in 65 games (a pace for 114 and 112), but his pace has slowed significantly here in June (9 Runs and 5 RBI’s) as team’s have begun pitching around Gonzalez (22 BB’s in June alone). As teams begin pitching around Gonzalez more and more his Run total will rise a bit but his RBI’s are bound to drop. Gonzalez owners shouldn’t really be too concerned or reactionary here as the production remains elite despite the obstacles, its just worth noting his RBI pace is likely to slow while Run pace is likely to rise.
Ubaldo Jimenez:
Jimenez is on a roll right now as he picked up his 3rd consecutive win on Thursday this time shutting down the best offense in baseball. He limited the Rays to just 1 ER in 6 2/3 innings. He scattered 6 hits and 3 BB’s but was helped by 7 K’s. Jimenez continues to roll ground balls at a strong rate (54.5%) and couple it with a good K Rate (.84) to keep his ERA low (3.73). He walks a few too many (.42), though he has cut them down this year, and pitches in Coors Field which makes his results feel somewhat unpredictable. But taking a deeper look at Jimenez you see the roller coaster isn’t quite as bumpy as you’d expect. Last year he posted Disaster Starts in just 15% of his outings and after posting Disaster Starts in three of his first four outings this season he’s gone 10 straight without a clunker (21% overall on the season). Though the combination of BB’s and Coors Field makes Jimenez seem difficult to start with confidence, owners should trust the numbers and start Jimenez with confidence throughout the season.
Geovany Soto:
Thomas noted the season long power-outage from Soto a week ago and how it was the primary issue with Soto’s season, but what is important to notice is the improvements in Soto’s power by month. His Slugging % has gone from .130 to .354 to .513 here in June. As the shoulder has gotten healthier, Soto’s value keeps slowly moving back towards expectation. With 2 2B’s and 3 HR’s here in June, Soto’s 12.8% extra base hit rate is almost exactly in line with his 12.1% extra base hit rate last season. With an improved EYE and recovering power, the opportunity to buy low on Soto is just about ending.
Brandon Webb:
Webb reportedly had a setback in his rehab on Thursday as the DBacks announced he wouldn’t make a scheduled bullpen session on Friday. He’s instead been sent back to Phoenix where he’ll receive further treatment. Even if he stayed on schedule we were looking at a return near the ASB, now we may be looking into August with the latest setback. In re-draft leagues where owners are strapped for roster space we’re at the point I can understand dropping Webb in order to add someone who can contribute immediately. I’m becoming increasingly pessimistic about Webb’s return.
Ryan Ludwick:
Two weeks ago I mentioned Ludwick’s struggles coming off the DL and how he was still making good contact which suggested a turnaround was likely once he got his timing back. Unfortunately since then the peripherals have deteriorated and have done so rapidly. Coming into last night’s game, Ludiwck had struck out 9 times in 28 AB’s since the posting, compared to just 2 BB’s. On Thursday night he showed mild signs of life with 3 BB’s and no K’s in 5 PA’s, but the lack of extra base hits and increasing struggles with contact are starting to pile up. After suggesting Ludwick may be a solid buy-low candidate two weeks back, I’m not so sure now. The .244 BABIP suggests some better times are ahead but with the threat to playing time increasing and the K’s starting to pile up, I’m concerned he may not get the type of opportunity and time to straighten things out.
