Max Scherzer:
Scherzer dominated the Giants for 7 2/3 innings limiting them to just 3 hits and a walk, while striking out 6. Scherzer’s peripherals stack up pretty well with his actual production as his FB tendencies and bouts with command lead to just average ratio category production despite tons of K’s. However, when I look at Scherzer I see more room for upside. The .40 BB Rate is high and in line with his minor league career numbers, but his strike % (career 64%) is something of a pitcher with much better command. The high K totals and a strike rate better than his BB rate would indicate makes Scherzer one of my favorite fantasy pitchers to own and someone I keep waiting for the next big step forward. With 1/3 of his starts this season resulting in more K’s than H+BB’s, Scherzer has flashed the elite talent, now we just need the consistency. He’ll look to build on this start with another good matchup in Kansas City next week.
Jay Bruce:
I spent an inordinate amount of time this preseason talking about Jay Bruce being overvalued and wildly overdrafted, citing the BA downside and lack of anything outside of power production. This has been the case this year as Bruce has struggled posting a .214 batting average and a 22.4% K Rate. The good news is the peripherals are a lot more inspiring than the production so far. His EYE has improved this year from .30 to .42 as he’s actually cut down the K’s a bit. The power has jumped up quite a bit as well from a 9.5% exbh rate last year to an 11% rate this year. The batting average downside is real but is vastly overstated by a paltry .157 BHIP%. Last year Bruce was league average at .250. Even if he gets to the lower quartile in the .220 area on BHIP%, Bruce’s batting average should see a 50-60 point rise, and to get there he’d have to hit about .290 the rest of the way. A swift owner would stack the odds in their favor and look to make a play for Bruce via trade. His skill-set is that of a .270 or so hitter, and even if he hits just .270 the rest of the way he’ll have significantly more value.
Carlos Marmol:
I’ll allow myself to not only promote one of my favorite blogs “Bleed Cubbie Blue” (for Cubs fans it’s the best online community out there) but also give myself the opportunity to get on one of my favorite soap-boxes. My colleagues on “BCB” know my feelings on Marmol pretty well. He’s been abused by Lou Pineilla who refuses to avoid using Marmol on 3 or 4 consecutive days or in blowouts. As a result he’s now thrown 29 innings and appeared in 31 of the Cubs first 57 games; this after appearing in 82 games last season. This includes a recent stretch in which Marmol was used 6 times in 8 days (and rather predictably walked 7 in those 5 innings). The results have been alarming as Marmol’s BB Rate has jumped from .47 to .97 and his K Rate has dropped from 1.31 to 1.03. Marmol’s still getting by because of the high K Rate but he’s no longer an asset in mixed leagues as he’s not a threat to take over closing duties and he’s a legitimate WHIP-killer. For those who question Marmol’s fatigue and its effect on his command I point towards his career BB/9 on days rest: 0 Days rest = 6.19 BB/9, 1 Day rest = 5.13 BB/9, 2 Days Rest = 4.30 BB/9, 3+ Days Rest = 3.40 BB/9. For those rostering Marmol in daily leagues pay attention to his usage rate and you can avoid some of the ugly BB outings.
Yovani Gallardo:
I came into the year a bit concerned about Gallardo’s potential innings ceiling after the knee injury last year and how he’d fare down the stretch, but I still loved Gallardo’s talent and knew whatever innings he gave would be good ones. So far so good as Gallardo has posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and over a K/I through his first 12 starts including yesterday’s middling outing against the Rockies. Gallardo last just 5 innings allowing 2 ER’s on 3 hits and 4 walks, while striking out 6. The BB’s are a bit concerning given my lead in as Gallardo’s been ridden very hard by the Brewers so far this year. He’s averaged 106 pitches per start and his command has gotten progressively worse each month (.26, .49, .62 BB Rates). It’s not something that is making me run out and shop Gallardo around, but it is something I’m paying attention to and is something worth monitoring if looking to acquire or shopping Gallardo in trade negotiations.
Colby Rasmus:
Rasmus has been red-hot of late as he extended his hit streak to 10 games in a ph appearance on Thursday. During that span he’s 15-32 with a whopping 8 extra base hits. The power output has been impressive for the youngster in his first full season (11.9% exbh rate), but more importantly here in June he’s only struck out 3 times in those 32 AB’s. He hasn’t walked at all during the streak which was a big part of his game in the minors and hasn’t yet translated at the major league level, but improving contact and terrific power signal a bright future for the youngster. With Rick Ankiel back some of his PT will be cut, but Rasmus’ power output and upside deserves attention in nearly all formats.
