Erik Bedard:
Bedard’s effort yesterday was enough to pick up a win, but also enough to raise some concerns. Bedard allowed just 2 hits and 2 ER’s in 5 innings while striking out 4, but he needed over 100 pitches to get through 5 and walked 4. Bedard’s now walked 16 batters in his last 5 starts (27 1/3 innings) and averaged just over 5 1/3 innings an outing. Bedard’s still been effective (striking out 26 in that span), but declining command of late always gives me a bit of concern with Bedard and his health. Bedard’s been a pretty fragile SP throughout his career, averaging just 148 innings a year over his career. Perhaps its just a bump in the road for Bedard, but the poor command leaves me wondering if everything is alright with Bedard. He’s remained effective and sports a fantastic 5-2 record and 2.47 ERA so far this year, but he’s the type of pitcher I could get back the value of a true Ace (think Top 30-50 hitter), given Bedard’s usually good for a DL stint at some point in the year, it’s a move I’d consider making while Bedard’s #’s are at a near-peak. My concerns aren’t enough that I’ll be actively shopping Bedard, but they are enough I’ll likely sit out his next start in Colorado.
Rich Hill:
As a Cubs fan, I’ve always had an interest in following Rich Hill’s progress and with two very favorable matchups this week I actually plugged him in quite a few lineups. After watching both starts closely, I didn’t see much difference from Hill (outside of the results of course). In the first outing Hill got behind SEA hitters consistently, but they repeatedly bailed him out while behind in the count and once Hill got back into the count the SEA hitters were in protect mode, expanding their zone. The results were terrific and the peripherals suggested some nice improvements, but watching the game left me with a different impression. I had noted to a friend before yesterday’s outing that I was extremely concerned about the matchup with a much more patient A’s lineup set to take on Hill and as I tuned in on Sunday my worst fears were realized. Hill fell behind early and the A’s hitters didn’t bail him out. Hill continued to miss the zone and then began aiming pitches. This time the results were just as ugly as the performance was live as Hill finished with 4 BB’s, a Hit, and a hit batsmen in just 2/3 of an inning. Brian Bass bailed him out and stranded the bases loaded with 2 outs to help limit the damage to just 3 ER’s. While Hill’s K Rates have been OK so far, his command and confidence are way off. Without the cozy matchups of the NL Central, Hill is going to struggle mightily and isn’t worth owning (in my opinion) even in AL only formats.
Daisuke Matsuzaka:
I’ve haven’t been a big Dice-K fan since he’s come over, largely because of his high BB Rates that translate to an unappealing WHIP. Not to mention watching a guy with his stuff, try to paint corners instead of attack hitters is infuriating. In years past Dice-K got by from a fantasy perspective thanks to strong K Rates and great run support from the Red Sox lineup, but this year he’s become more hittable and he’s unable to last deep enough in games to get the needed run support to generate Wins. He’s yet to make it past the 6th inning in any of his first 6 starts, which has resulted in an ugly 1-4 record and 7.33 ERA despite 9.7 K/9. Some of the early season struggles are the result of bad luck as a .435 BHIP% and 16.2% HR/FB Rate have magnified his poor command. While the luck will revert, Dice-K’s poor command and inability to go deep into games will continue to limit his fantasy value. Somewhere between this current line and his 2007 line is the right value for Matsuzaka, 2008 was a mirage that should not be expected.
Lyle Overbay:
Quietly putting together one of the more impressive comebacks in 2009 is Lyle Overbay. Overbay’s 2-3 effort on Sunday with his 7th HR raised his 2009 line to .302/.404/.583 with a stellar 1.09 EYE. At 32, Overbay’s had a resurgence in his power lead by an improving FB Rate that has given him an incredible 17.3% extra base hit rate. Given Overbay’s career exbh rate is just 10.8% this would seem unsustainable, but the improvement in his contact rate and his EYE overall suggests a replication (and possibly slight improvement on) of Overbay’s previous career season in 2006 is possible.
Joe Saunders:
Saunders is pretty much the epitome of “matchups” starter. So this week with two outings against TOR and DET (two teams in the upper half of MLB in Team OPS), Saunders didn’t look like a great play. This was the case as Saunders struggled allowing 12 base-runners and 4 ER’s in 6 innings. He struck out 5, but also showed unusually poor command, walking 5. So far Saunders has been a perfect matchup option. In his 6 starts against teams in the top half of MLB in OPS, Saunders has gone 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. In his other 6 starts against bottom feeders, Saunders has gone 5-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Next week he gets SD, who ranks 27th in MLB in OPS, feel free to get him active and use him accordingly going forward.
