Brett Anderson:
The results weren’t particularly great for Brett Anderson on Sunday, but the peripherals continue to show improvement. Anderson was battered around for 8 hits in just 4 innings which turned into 6 ER’s and resulted in his 7th loss of the season. He walked just 1 and struck out 6 and now has a 15:2 K:BB Ratio over his last 3 starts (16 2/3 innings). Throw in a 50% GB Rate and there’s some reason to be mildly excited about the 21 year old. For now, he’s just got value in AL only formats, but there’s some sleeper potential here as the year wears on. Anderson’s .304 BHIP% and opp BABIP over .320 suggest some poor luck on balls in play, while a sub 60% LOB% suggests Anderson’s ERA is a due a little positive regression as well. For the season, he’s been more of a high 4’s, low 5’s ERA type pitcher as he’s struggled to strike out hitters and battled middling command, but these last 3 outings he’s shown significant improvement and pitched more like a low 4’s/high 3’s ERA pitcher. If the continued improvement in his K:BB holds up (5.06 K/BB at the minor league level) Anderson will string together some value with his strong ground ball tendencies pitching in a great home park. For AL only leagues, I think he’s worth an add right now as a speculative play as he appears to be making adjustments to the majors after having just 6 starts above A ball coming into the season.
Jered Weaver:
Weaver’s incredible 2009 season continued on Sunday as he pitched his 2nd complete game of the year and his first shutout. Weaver allowed just 5 hits and a single walk, while striking out 5. We’ve been suggesting Weaver as a sell high candidate for some time now as his peripherals are nearly identical to last season (.82 K Rate vs. .86 in ’08, .28 BB Rate vs. .31 in ’08, 32.9% GB Rate vs. 32.6% in ’08). While he’s been able to sustain the level of success he’s had in the first 2 months of the season, he’s relying heavily on good fortune (HR/FB of 7.9% vs. 10.1% last season; Strand Rate of .82 vs. 69; and BHIP% of .240 vs. .295). While suggesting selling him for other struggling aces like Josh Beckett (good rec) and Francisco Liriano (bad rec, no longer an ace), may have missed out on some of the recent value, it remains the right play. A Jered Weaver for Jon Lester/Cole Hamels/Johan Santana (perhaps after Sunday’s implosion) would net significant value over the remainder of the season.
Ian Kinsler:
Kinsler’s been mired in a horrible slump (4-33 over the last 8 games) that has dropped his average all the way down to .260. The good news is the slump has largely been based on horrid luck as Kinsler’s BHIP during June is just .162 and his BHIP% for the season is just .192. Kinsler’s shown an improved EYE this season, while maintaining his extra base hit rate in last year’s breakout, he’s just had some horrible luck early on. Once the .192 BHIP% and sub .250 BABIP turn around Kinsler will get back towards the production we saw out of him in 2008. Kinsler owners should stay the course for now, while savvy non-Kinsler owners should look into buying low (perhaps Aaron Hill + a piece).
Miguel Olivo:
Olivo has been on fire of late knocking out 4 HR’s in the last 6 games and raising his 2009 line to .257/.287/.493. Olivo’s shown good power in the past knocking out double digit HR’s in each of the past 3 years and having 9 already this season. In addition he’s taken over the primary C role, so there is some value for power-starved teams in 2 catcher leagues; but I stress caution. Olivo’s anemic 2:50 BB:K Ratio, brings significant batting average downside and his 10.4% extra base hit rate really isn’t any better than his 11% rate last season. The big difference in production is all in good fortune on his HR/FB Rate which has sky-rocketed over 29% after having sat between 12.8% and 13.4% in 4 of the last 5 seasons. This is an anomaly that will correct and Olivo’s HR pace will slow. Once that takes place his value will plummet as power is really his only asset. Don’t be fooled by Olivo’s recent hot streak, much of the value in Olivo’s 2009 season has already occurred.
Brandon Inge:
This is beginning to look a little more realistic. After hitting .319 in April, Inge has hit .235 in May and .244 here in June. His K Rate and BB Rate have reverted back to 2008 levels and his power pace has steadily slowed, which we’d expect from someone sporting an absurd 27.5% HR/FB Rate back in late April. His HR/FB Rate is still elevated at nearly 22% as is his BHIP% .270 (3 year average of .230), so expect continued regression. The time to deal Inge at a high point has likely passed, but 20+ HR production likely still carries some weight with fantasy owners so making a play to sell high is a fine strategy; however if you can absorb the BA downside and need power, Inge still remains a fine option to hold onto, just expect a slowed pace.
