Luke Hochevar - SP Kansas City Royals
Well, well, well .. Looks whose back .. in a big way. The Royals' 6-5, 205 righty Luke Hochevar has pushed his 2009 record to 5-0 with 8 shutout innings in AAA this week. His 0.95 ERA, .199 OBA (with a favorable .239 BHIP%), and his 0.95 WHIP in 40 IP this year are all eye-popping. They also are more in line with what the team expected when they drafted him in the first round of the 2006 draft.
Luke leads with a low-to-mid 90s 4-seam, and a two-seamer with good downward action (1.7 GB ratio in the majors so far), and he backs those up with a biting curve and good slider. As a pro he's also been working on adding a viable change.
It's hard to figure from his stats where everything has been falling down for Luke to this point. It may simply be a matter of him working too close to the edges of his indicators, leaving little room for error. Command within the zone has been the knock. He throws strikes but tends to leave the ball up in the zone. When your K-rate is borderline at less than 7/9 and you are walking 3/9 or more you can't leave the ball up in the zone. Those ground balls become crucial.
This year so far his K rate is in it's high orbit and his BB rate is his lowest since his first 15 IP in A ball. In other words, he's created a little more margin for error. He's also benefiting from that .239 BHIP% and a ridiculous 90.9% strand percentage. That's not going to hold, but his WHIP still suggests a sub-3.00 ERA anyway.
Luke isn't my favorite type of pitching prospect. I prefer power guys and he will not be that. But if he can bring 5 pitches to show hitters with command, and he can induce ground balls, and reduce his inclination to leave pitches up, he can be a better-than-effective pitcher in the majors.
The rumblings have started and it looks like Luke is knocking on the big-league door. It's almost at the point where you can expect a June call up. I am grading him conservatively, but his high end potential makes him an intriguing claim.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B-Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2006 A 0 1 1.17 15.1 9.4 1.2 1.2 .156 0.65 2007 AA 3 6 4.69 94.0 9.0 2.5 1.2 .293 1.45 2007 AAA 1 3 5.12 58.0 6.8 3.3 1.7 .245 1.28 2007 MLB 0 1 2.13 12.2 3.6 2.8 0.7 .235 1.18 2008 AAA 1 1 2.60 17.1 6.2 3.1 1.0 .184 0.98 2008 MLB 6 12 5.51 129.0 5.0 3.3 0.8 .282 1.47 2009 AAA 5 0 0.90 40.0 6.8 2.3 0.5 .199 0.95
Chris Coghlan - 2B/3B/OF Florida Marlins
Chris Coghlan's recall from AAA is the end result of the wheels coming off Emilio Bonifacio in Florida after a torrid start. The 6-1, 195-pound left-handed hitter was a first round supplemental pick out of high-school in 2006. Third base is his natural position and probably where he will find the most playing time with the Fish, but he has transitioned nicely to second base in the Marlins system and lately he has seen more PT in the outfield. Defensively he's workable at all three positions but no more.
Offensively his contributions are contact skills and zone command. While rising 5 levels in the Marlins system Chris has maintained double-digit walk rates and sub-15% strikeout rates with impressive consistency. That has lead to high batting averages and strong OBPs and in those areas he will be a contributor. Chris has also taught himself how to steal bases despite a lack of top-end speed. If he can port that skill to the majors he becomes increasingly valuable. And in AAA this year he is showing a level of pop that is unexpected.
If he can maintain a 2B qualification under your league's format Chris will be a useful add, likewise if you are desperate for steals, although I question his ability to reach that level of SB production at the MLB-level.
Chris will not be a superstar, but he will probably be worth a roster spot in most formats
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+Seas Lvl AB XBH HR SB AVG BB% K% OBP SLG 2006 A- 94 6 0 5 .298 12.1 9.6 .373 .372 2007 A 305 40 10 19 .325 13.4 14.1 .419 .534 2007 A+ 130 10 2 5 .200 10.3 14.6 .277 .331 2008 AA 483 44 7 34 .298 12.2 13.5 .396 .429 2009 AAA 96 13 3 9 .344 11.1 10.4 .418 .552
