Gary Sheffield (OF – Mets)
Following Carlos Delgado’s surgery, Gary Sheffield appears to be in line to occupy the clean-up spot on most nights for the next 10 weeks. Sheffield has started and hit 4th in the past 6 games, while going 10 for 25 with 9 runs, 1 HR, and 1 SB. While Sheffield experienced rapid decline last season, it is unlikely that he is actually as bad as he showed in ’08. In ’09, Sheff has brought his EYE (1.15) back up to slightly above where it was during his days with the Yankees, but below where it was during his prime. Sheffield is also currently posting the highest contact rate (88.1%) since ’02 (when they started keeping the stat). On the other hand, Sheffield’s BABIP (.291) appears to be on the lucky side thus far, as his LD rate sits at a paltry 12.3%, his GB rate is 54.4%, and his IFFB rate is an astonishing 42.1%. He has certainly been more selective at the plate than his historical norms, but his inability to drive the ball is alarming. Don’t expect a Gary Sheffield revival this season, but I still do believe that he has more left in the tank than he showed last season. He should be very valuable in NL-only leagues over the next 10 weeks in the Run and RBI categories.
J.A. Happ (SP – Phillies)
J.A. Happ is set to replace Chan Ho Park in the Phillies starting rotation. Happ had a big year in AAA in ’08 (3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9), and has shown the ability to get major league hitters out during his time in the bullpen this year (2.49 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.06 K/9, 3.74 BB/9). However, Happ’s numbers this year have clearly been aided by lady luck. He has a BABIP of .228, a strand rate of 79.7%, and a HR/FB rate of 3.6%. His LD rate of 19.7% does not support his low BABIP, his K rate does not support a strand rate this high, and his 45.9% FB rate signals that plenty of long-balls are on the horizon when his HR/FB rate normalizes. A move into the starting rotation figures to give Happ the innings necessary for some serious regression. If Happ cannot reduce his current walk rate, he should struggle in his new role. All of that negativity withstanding, Happ is still worth a look in all NL-only leagues due to the solid year he put up at AAA last season.
Ross Detwiler (SP – Nationals)
2007 1st round draft pick Ross Detwiler has earned another start for the Nationals. Detwiler looked sharp in his ’09 debut by striking out 6 and walking none through 5 innings. Before getting the call to the majors, Detwiler had been pitching well in AA (9.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). Control figures to be problematic for him throughout his early days in the majors, which is why his first start was so encouraging. Detwiler had a rough ’08 season in single-A ball, which means that he is still a long way off from being ready to have any success in the majors. The first start was nice, but I wouldn’t expect Detwiler to stick around for much longer in the majors – he still has lots to improve upon in the minors.
Jay Bruce (OF – Reds)
The Folk Hero known as Jay Bruce launched his 12th HR of the season last night. Bruce’s .232 BA likely has some fantasy owners concerned, but I believe that the concern is unfounded. His BA has been greatly damaged by a .206 BABIP that is about 50 points understated according to his LD rate of 13%. We’ve said before that Bruce has made small but significant strides in his EYE (.30 to .50) and contact rate (71.6% to 77.8%) this year. Bruce hit .254 last year and was a bit on the unlucky side of things. This leads me to believe that with his increased EYE and contact skills – he should have no problem reaching a .270 BA this season.
Gerardo Parra (OF – Diamondbacks)
Gerardo Parra started and hit in the 2 hole for the 4th consecutive game on Tuesday night. He was 2 for 4 with walk to raise his BA to .412 on the season. Parra had been assaulting AA pitching with a .361 / .469 / .491 line, and a 13/22 K/BB ratio before getting called up. Parra is a high contact hitter, who doesn’t have much pop at age 22, but his play has forced his way into the D’Backs everyday lineup, and he should now garner attention in mixed leagues. He is a speedy player, but he has not yet developed his base stealing abilities (0 for 2 in majors and 7 for 11 in the minors this year). Parra could be in for an extended stay in the majors due to how dreadful Chris Young and Eric Byrnes have been. While he is here he should hit for a good average, steal a few bags, and put up solid run totals.
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