Jon Niese SP-NYM
Niese made his case for a rotation spot on Friday night by limiting the Pirates to just 2 ER’s in 6 strong innings. He allowed 7 hits, struck out 5, but most importantly didn’t walk a batter (a nice change from Oliver Perez). Niese had been struggling at the AAA level but too much was made of those stats as Niese’s peripherals in AAA this year were actually quite good (1.14 K Rate, .36 BB Rate). The key for him at the major league level will be the command. Last year he showed enough stuff to compete at this level but didn’t throw enough strikes. He got a nice first warm up start with the struggling Pirates lineup but did exactly what Mets fans would hope. He’ll get another favorable matchup in his next outing against an impatient Giants lineup in a friendly pitching park. At this point Niese deserves consideration in NL Only formats and nothing more, but certainly worth paying attention to given his strong K Rates at AAA and in limited big league action.
Johnny Cueto SP-CIN
Quietly Johnny Cueto keeps getting it done, this time shutting down the vaunted Cardinals lineup for 7 innings, allowing just 1 ER, 5 Hits, and 2 BB’s. Cueto struck out just 3 batters but showed impressive command getting ahead early and throwing a whopping 68% of his pitches for strikes. This led to increased efficiency as Cueto needed just 98 pitches to get through 7 innings. Cueto started fast last year and faded and while this year’s quick start has been helped by some favorable matchups (HOU, PIT twice each in his 6 starts), he’s also shut down the Cubs and Cardinals and shown significant improvement in his strike throwing (up to 62%). He looks like a more confident pitcher on the mound attacking the strike zone more consistently so hopefully this is the big step forward we were hoping for. It should be noted Cueto’s current numbers are being helped by a .90 Strand Rate and HR/FB of less than 6%, so look for some regression upward as Cueto’s peripherals suggest a true performance in the low-to-mid 3’s (still quite good) in terms of ERA.
Casey Kotchman 1B-ATL:
I think this is the Casey Kotchman the Braves expected they were getting when dealing Mark Teixeira for him. Kotchman knocked out his 2nd HR of the season on Friday and is now up to .310/.373/.480 on the season. Kotchman’s showing his usual strong plate discipline (.82 EYE) and his usual good gap power (11 2B’s in 100 AB’s), but the big news for Kotchman is he’s hitting more balls in the air. Kotchman always struggled with high GB Rates that limited his ceiling to a Mark Grace/James Loney type player, but this season he’s dropped his GB Rate from the low 50’s down to the low 40’s. At that rate he’s got a chance to get the HR’s up into the high teens, low 20’s and make an impact in more than just NL Only formats.
Barry Zito SP-SF
Is it time to start considering Barry Zito again in all formats? Zito posted his 4th consecutive quality start on Friday night and lowered his ERA on the season to 3.57. Zito wasn’t efficient on this evening needing 126 pitches to get through 6 innings, allowing 8 hits and 2 BB’s, but he continued to throw strikes (66% strike rate) and get good results doing so. Zito’s big improvements this year have been in his command (.34 BB Rate) and his GB Rate (45.5%). The combination has helped Zito avoid the big inning and keep the ball in the park. He’s picked up a bit more velocity on his fastball this year and created some more separation between his offspeed stuff giving even more hope to a rebound. While I’m not comfortable utilizing Zito as anything more than a spot-starting option at this point in mixed leagues, he’s now back on the radar. If he keeps throwing strikes and keeps the ball in the park, he’ll be a useful back-end option.
Russell Martin C-LAD
After a miserable start to the season Russell Martin appears to be getting back into form. With a 2-3 effort on Friday, Martin is now 9-20 in May and has raised his batting average 50 points from .205 to .255 in just 6 games. Martin’s plate discipline has been fine this year; the big difference in his performance comes from a rapidly declining Slugging %. We saw this same situation play out last year and correlate directly to a rising GB Rate. This is happening again this season as Martin’s GB Rate is up to 55.3%. Unless Martin’s able to get some loft in his swing the power we’ve been accustomed to from Martin may be gone. His Slugging % has dropped from .469 to .396 to .317 over the last 3 years.
