Coco Crisp (OF – Royals)
Coco Crisp swiped 2 more bags on Friday night to give him 5 in his last 3 games. The fact that Coco had only attempted 4 SB in the first month of the season was very concerning; especially since he has never really been a great base-stealer (72.9% career success rate). I was beginning to think that Trey Hillman was making a point of not allowing Coco to make outs on the base paths this year, which is why his recent SB surge was a welcome sight. Despite only having a .231 BA on the season, early indications have shown that Coco has drastically improved his approach at the plate. He has more than doubled his career BB rate this season, which has led to an EYE of 1.50. This number is extremely impressive, but I remain skeptical that it will continue. Pitch data shows that he is not actually swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone; rather, he is just making contact far more frequently on these pitches outside the zone (20% more than his career number). I doubt that he can continue to make contact with such a high percentage of bad pitches, since he has never shown the ability to do so before. Nonetheless, if this newfound skill is sustainable, Crisp should be able to post career highs in runs and steals due to being on base much more frequently (even with his .231 BA, he is currently above his career high OBP). Additionally, Coco’s .231 BA is a sure bet to rise, as it has been suppressed by an unlucky .143 singles rate.
Matt Tolbert (2B – Twins)
In the two games following Alexi Casilla’s demotion, Matt Tolbert has started at 2B and batted 2nd in the lineup in both games. Tolbert is essentially another incarnation of Nick Punto – loved by Ron Gardenhire, not so loved by fantasy owners. The Twins have made it known that they aren’t big fans of Brendan Harris occupying the 2B position, so Tolbert should have the first shot at claiming everyday duties. Tolbert has a career .278 / .341 / .399 line in the minors, which isn’t dreadful for a middle infielder. He has very little power and speed, as his minor league season highs are 7 HR and 12 SB. Tolbert won’t hold much value in mixed leagues, but if he can continue to hit out of the number 2 hole, he is definitely roster-worthy in AL-only leagues.
Andrew Bailey (RP – Athletics)
Andrew Bailey picked up his first major league save on Friday night by throwing 2 perfect innings while striking out 2. Bailey has been terrific this year (10.24 K/9), but I don’t think Brad Ziegler owners should worry too much. Bailey has shown that he has dominating stuff in the minors by posting a career 9.6 K/9; but, he has also shown questionable control by allowing 4.0 BB/9 in the minors. He has done a nice job so far this season by limiting his BB/9 to 3.26, but this is a number that I would expect to rise as hitters adjust after seeing him for the first time. Also, it is important to note that this was a 2 inning save, which shows that Bailey was not intended to be the closer for tonight’s game. He was likely allowed to remain in the game because of how dominating he was in the 8th. Brad Zeigler has done nothing to lose the job thus far, so I would expect him to continue to get the vast majority of the save opportunities going forward.
Cliff Lee (SP – Indians)
Cliff Lee was the hard-luck loser on Friday night as he was out-dueled by Justin Verlander. Lee allowed just 1 ER through 8 IP, while striking out 5 and walking 2. This game marks the 5th consecutive quality start for Lee, who over that time has posted an ERA of 1.70, a WHIP of 1.27, and a K/BB of 22/7. There is no question that Lee’s Cy Young season of ’08 was greatly aided by a 78.3% strand rate and a 5.1 HR/FB rate; however, it is important to remember that Lee’s peripherals from last year did indicate a very good pitcher. The major factors in Lee’s great season were huge improvements in his BB rate and GB rate relative to his career averages. Thus far in ’09, Lee hasn’t been able to replicate those numbers (2.30 BB/9 in ’09 vs. 1.37 in ’08; 37.6% GB% in ’09 vs. 45.9 in ’08). Strangely, the numbers that were thought to normalize and made him over-valued in ’09 have not changed. Lee is still enjoying a strand rate of 77.5% and a HR/FB of 6.4%. If he cannot repeat last season’s improved peripherals (hasn’t thus far), and his strand rate and HR/FB rate eventually normalize, Lee will be in for a disappointing season.
Billy Butler (DH – Royals)
Billy Butler smacked 2 more hits on Friday night to raise his BA to .295 on the season. Butler has batted .425 in his last 10 games, but the power has yet to show up. Once again, Butler’s power problem is a result of him hitting far too many balls on the ground. In ’09, he has actually increased his GB rate to 53.9%, which places him in territory usually reserved for slap-hitting, speedy players. If he continues to put the ball on the ground with this type of regularity, it will be nearly impossible for him to surpass 20 HR. On a positive note, his BB rate has nearly doubled from last year, which has brought his EYE up to 0.87 on the season. Butler should have no problem posting a solid BA this year, but he will still be considered to be a disappointment if he can only muster HR totals that mirror Todd Helton.
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