Rich Hill (SP – Orioles)
Rich Hill is scheduled to make his ’09 debut against the Royals on Saturday. I feel it is necessary to remind everyone that Hill was an above average starting pitcher as recently as ’07 (3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.45 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 in 195 IP). The Cubs soured on him extremely quickly when he couldn’t find the strike zone in ’08 (8.24 BB/9 in 19 IP), and then were forced to move him on the cheap in ’09 since he was out of options. Hill’s issues with command persisted in the minors in ’08 (8.3 BB/9 in 47 IP) and have continued to look shaky in ’09 (5.1 BB/9 in 16 IP). I suppose it is possible that Steve Blass Disease has claimed yet another victim, but I still believe Hill is worth a speculative add in AL-only leagues. It isn’t everyday that a pitcher sitting on the waiver wire can boast a career minor league K/9 of 12.2 and career major league K/9 of 8.24. Hill is definitely worth taking a chance on because the reward could potentially be very great.
Aaron Cunningham (OF – Athletics)
Aaron Cunningham has fully recovered from his separated shoulder, and was called up to the big leagues yesterday. It is unclear at this point how Cunningham will be utilized, but common sense tells me that he should get the majority of the starts against left-handers. Cunningham has mashed lefties in his minor league career (.336 / .413 / .521), while his competition, Travis Buck, has raked against righties in the minors (.333 / .403 / .519). Cunningham had a great ’08 in the minors, and has swung a hot bat in his small sample this year. He has a good power/speed combo that could translate to 20/20 potential in the majors, and if he is seeing the majority of his at bats against lefties – he should hit for a solid average. Cunningham is probably worth adding in AL-only leagues just based on his projected production as a platoon player; but, when you factor in a potential Matt Holliday trade, Cunningham becomes a recommended add if you have the roster space.
Phil Hughes (SP – Yankees)
Phil Hughes another poor outing on Friday by allowing 3 ER through 5 IP. Most troubling was the fact that he walked 4 and struck out just 2 batters. This makes 3 consecutive poor starts for Hughes, and this one he could not afford after a healthy Chien-Ming Wang looked sharp in his first rehab start. Hughes’ K/BB ratio now sits at a miserable 10/12. There is no doubting that Hughes (still somehow just 22 years old) has an incredibly bright future in this league, but since the Yankees have a very tough rotation to crack, along with an extreme “win now” mentality, Hughes will probably have to wait another season before he truly arrives for good in the big leagues.
Edwin Jackson (SP – Tigers)
Edwin Jackson tossed 7 innings of 1 run ball on Friday, while striking out 6 and walking zero batters. In his 7th season in the big leagues, Jackson is finally making good on all that promise he showed as a 19 year old with the Dodgers. Jackson is currently reveling in a 2.42 ERA and a WHIP just a touch north of 1.00. The best part about Jackson’s ’09 season is that he actually has the peripherals to back it up. His K/9 is currently 7.09, and his BB/9 has fallen all the way down to 1.90 (career mark of 4.31). The big question is figuring out what has caused Jackson’s renaissance and knowing whether or not it is sustainable. The key to Jackson’s success appears to be his slider. The Tigers have tinkered with his slider, and he has thrown it with much more frequency in ’09 (29.1% of the time vs. 21.8% last year). He has essentially replaced his changeup with his slider, as he is only throwing his change 3.0% of the time this year and its velocity is identical to the velocity on his slider. Attributing his success to a fundamental change in the way a pitch is thrown and how often it is thrown is definitely a trend that I would consider to be sustainable. On the other hand, his silly ERA and WHIP numbers will surely rise in the future. His BABIP (.264) is a touch low right now, and as is his HR/FB rate (6.7%). Jackson currently has a FB rate of 45.8%; if this number does not come down, his ERA will shoot up somewhat significantly as his HR/FB rate normalizes. The improvements Jackson has made in ’09 look to be both legitimate and sustainable, but his ERA and WHIP will be on the rise shortly.
Clete Thomas (OF – Tigers)
Clete Thomas went 3 for 5 and scored 4 runs on Friday night. Thomas has started in all 9 games since being called up, and he has batted 3rd in 8 of these games. After tonight’s game, Thomas’ BA sits at a mostly empty .368. Thomas is by no means an everyday player at the major league level (.747 career minor league OPS), but he can’t continue to be ignored in fantasy leagues for as long as he is hitting 3rd for the Tigers everyday. Thomas will not hit for any power, but he should provide some speed as he stole 29 bases in just 76 games in AAA last season. Thomas’ high BA will certainly not continue for long, since it is grossly inflated by a BABIP of .407 that does not even come close to correlating with his LD rate of 14.8%. Thomas will eventually come crashing back down to earth in a very pronounced way; but until that happens, it looks like he will be batting 3rd everyday for the Tigers, which automatically makes him roster-worthy in AL-only leagues. I view him strictly as a short-term play in AL-only leagues.
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