Ben Zobrist:
The Iwamura injury opens the door for Ben Zobrist to get full time AB’s. Zobrist is showing incredible power for the 2nd consecutive season in limited AB’s, posting a .614 Slugging % and a HR every 12.6 AB’s. Zobrist has hit at pretty much every stop in his career, posting a career minor league OPS of .887, and has done so with impressive plate discipline minor league career 1.29 EYE. Zobrist turns 28 on Tuesday, so he’s right in his prime and already has position eligibility at SS and OF. Add in 2B and all the impressive power numbers and Zobrist makes a guy worthy of an immediate add in all formats.
Melky Cabrera:
Melky continued his late inning heroics on Sunday with an RBI 1B to tie the game in the 9th inning and then even swiped a bag after that. It wasn’t enough to get the win, but his 3-5 effort raised his 2009 line to an impressive .328/.374/.492. The hot start has Yankees fans clamoring about the youngster’s ability to hold down the CF role, but the question now is: is it real? Cabrera’s slightly upped his EXBH Rate to 8.6% from his 6.8% career rate, which is a good indication some of the improvement is legitimate. In addition, his LD Rate and HR Rate are both on the rise, good indicators for improved power from the 24 year old. Unfortunately, the rest of the peripherals are staggeringly similar to his career rates, which suggest the majority of Cabrera’s hot start is luck driven. A .313 BHIP% is a good 50 points above his career average and a HR/FB Rate of over 17% is 11% higher than his career average. This suggests a decline in batting average and the HR Rate are likely to come, making Melky more of a .270-.280 hitter with say 9-12 HR’s, instead of the current .320-70-18-70-10 pace he’s currently on.
Scott Baker:
Sunday night was a typical Scott Baker performance. He went 8 1/3 innings and allowed 3 ER’s (all on HR’s, 2 of them), allowed just 7 hits, walked none, and struck out 6. The outing was good enough to get Baker his 2nd win of the season and lower his ERA to 6.32. The outing magnified Baker’s greatest strengths and weaknesses as he showed the great command and good K Rates that made him so intriguing coming into this season, but also allowed 2 more HR’s, giving him 12 on the season in just over 47 innings. He’s had some horrible luck early in the season with a Strand Rate in the .50’s and a HR/FB Rate well over 23%, but he’s also just posted 2 quality outings in 8 attempts. I still believe in Baker and think he just needs to get the command issues he had earlier in the season under control, which will bring the HR’s down and begin magnifying the great K:BB instead of the HR rates. For now, he’s a matchups type that belongs on your bench, but I think there’s upside to be a reliable every week starter down the road. He’ll get the majors highest scoring offense in TB in his next start in an outing that he probably should be reserved for in mixed leagues.
Torri Hunter:
At age 33 has Torri Hunter become an elite fantasy OF? He’s always been good and typically under-appreciated, posting consistent runs at 20-20 seasons with 90+ RBI’s, but this year he’s taking the production to a new level. After posting FPI’s of .65, .67, .65, .68, and .66 over the last 5 years, projecting Hunter seemed pretty easy. This year though he’s at a stunning 0.83 led explicitly by increased power rates. Hunter’s EXBH Rate throughout his career has been right around 10.5%, but this year its shot up to 14.1%. He’s hitting a few more balls in the air, but largely at the expense of his LD Rate which has gone down the 2% his FB Rate has risen. The increased power without an increase in FB’s initially makes me a bit skeptical of this breakout as does the established track record and Hunter’s age, but he’s also made HUGE strides in his EYE this season. As a hitter with a career .39 EYE that had settled into the mid .40’s throughout the last 5 years, Hunter is posting an impressive .91 EYE. Better pitch selection and patience leading to better power certainly seems to be the explanation early on in Hunter’s possible career season.
David Aardsma:
The phenomenal run for Aardsma continued on Sunday as he picked up his 6th save of the season, striking out 2 and allowing a hit in his one inning of work. We’ve touched on Aardsma quite a bit with Mike Leone really summing it up best. Aardsma is a FB heavy pitcher who has significant control problems. He’s been this for his entire career and its been the primary reason he’s bounced between AAA and the majors for a number of organizations. Nothing has really changed here from his previous seasons (.60 BB Rate, 16% GB Rate), Aardsma’s just having FAR more luck (4.1% HR/FB, 0.91 Strand Rate, .184 BHIP%). If that weren’t enough, Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu has made it clear on a number of occasions that Brandon Morrow’s removal from the closer’s role is just temporary. Now, as long as Aardsma is getting these results he’ll continue in the role and continue to hold fantasy value; but betting on the continued good run of luck would be betting against the odds.
