Jarrod Parker was the 9th overall pick in the 2007 draft and played the entire 2008 season as a teenager in the Midwest League. His 6-1, 180 listing is suspect but Parker generates seemingly effortless velocity without ideal physical size. His fastball touches 98-99 and he can consistently throw 94-95 mph 70+ pitches into an outing. He has 4 viable pitches overall including a curve, slider, and change.
Jarrod made good progress on his secondary pitches in the 129 innings he pitched overall last season including the playoffs. His change up was almost a completely new pitch to him last season but he was missing bats with it and showed confidence throwing it last September. There were some issues with separation between his slider and curve but that improved as well last season.
Parker is skilled and coachable. He installs changes well and and still has considerable upside in every aspect of his game save for his fastball. His mechanics are sound and he repeats them well. The best part however? Last year his first-half ERA was 3.70 and his second-half ERA was 3.26. His first-half OBA was .277 and in the second half it was .231. When a prospect improves as the season goes along that's a pretty good tell.
Talk to scouts about Jarrod and generally they feel you have to downgrade his ceiling to that of a good #2, and other than a less-than-overpowering first half of his first pro season I am not sure what they are seeing. It's too early to see the ceiling on his secondary pitches and there still looks to be a lot of gains to be made in the mental aspects of the art, something Parker seems to have the makeup and personal drive to cash in on. The Diamondbacks have started him in high-A this season but he should get to AA soon. That's when we get a better read.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A-
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2008 A 12 5 3.44 117.2 8.9 3.7 0.6 .254 1.24 2009 A+ 0 0 0.00 9.0 11.0 1.0 0.0 .136 0.56
Chris Tillman - SP Baltimore Orioles
One of the elements acquired in the Orioles' Eric Bedard trade with the M's in February of 2008, Chris Tillman is lining up him final approach to the majors this season after spending 2008 as perhaps the best pitching prospect in the Eastern League. He was just a piece of the Bedard trade at the time, but he could end up being the gem.
Physically Chris is almost custom made to pitch at 6-5, 195 and the right hander runs his fastball up to the mid 90's. Tillman's curve is very good and his change is good enough to keep a hitters attention but hopefully not as good as it is going to be. Chris needs a little more downward plane on his fastball which given his physical stature should come in time. As you can see by his walk rate, Chris needs to either to hone his command and/or nibble less.
Considering the upside potential remaining in his curve, change, and command, Chris' AA numbers last season are pretty impressive. He fanned 10+ per 9 while opponents hit just .231 despite a .315 BHIP%.
The 21 year old (as of Wednesday) still has things to accomplish at AAA this season. He needs to continue to develop his change and and curve as well as learning how to sequence more sophisticated hitters through 3 ABs in a start. Tillman should get a look as a September call up this season and push for a spot in the Orioles rotation in 2010 but it shouldn't be considered a dissapointment if he weren't a permanent fixture in the Baltimore rotation until the back half of next season or 2011.
Pitchers are hard to grade because almost everything about them is subjective and in the end the hitters will be the judge. We won't know the marks from the major league judges for a while, but we should get a decent preview this summer. Chris definitely has #1 potential but until I see more from his change, I have to think his ceiling is that of a very low #1 or a good #2. Chris still has to show me a little more ... but talk to me again in August.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B+
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP 2006 R 2 0 0.82 11.0 13.1 4.1 0.0 .225 1.27 2006 A- 1 3 7.78 19.2 13.3 6.9 1.8 .311 2.03 2007 A 1 4 3.55 33.0 9.3 3.6 0.3 .250 1.33 2007 A+ 6 7 5.26 102.2 9.2 4.2 1.1 .270 1.51 2008 AA 11 4 3.18 135.2 10.2 4.3 0.7 .231 1.33 2009 AAA 0 0 0.00 4.0 11.2 6.7 0.0 .000 0.75
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