Scott Baker (MIN) – Big news in Minnesota is Baker unexpectedly opening the season on the 15-day disabled list with what is being diagnosed as shoulder stiffness. Baker finished his spring with a 6.85 ERA and a batting practice-like nine homers allowed in just 23 2/3 innings of work. Baker, who has been finding himself on several “breakout players” lists this spring, was slated to start on Opening Day for the Twins, but that honor now goes to Francisco Liriano. Baker isn’t expected to be sidelined long, and will be eligible to return on or around April 12. He finished last year with a 0.58 G/F, but reportedly the HRs allowed this spring were more a function of Baker working on his secondary stuff, though now we’re not quite sure what to believe. Assuming the shoulder is okay, it’s hard to not like a 27 year-old pitchers coming off these numbers: 7.4 K/9 (a full point jump from the prior year), 2.2 BB/9, and a 3.45 ERA. You’ll have to downgrade his fantasy value some, but get him late if you can and hope the shoulder is fine in a week or so.
Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – Tulo suffered from the mythic sophomore slump in 2008, but he’s a strong candidate for a bounceback in 2009. Tulowitzki was 3-for-3 with a SB on Thursday to raise his spring line to .315/.373/.463. The NL shortstop pool is relatively top heavy, but grabbing Tulowitzki later and passing on Reyes/Hanley/Rollins isn’t exactly a bad thing. Even though Tulo had a poor second season, he did bump his EYE from 0.44 to 0.68. He’ll likely open in the six hole and should again be one of the NL’s top fantasy shortstops.
Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) – Beyond Roy Oswalt, the Houston rotation clearly has issues, but Rodriguez probably isn’t getting enough credit. Rodriguez struck out 11 batters in six innings on Friday and is set to open as the Astros’ No. 2 starter. Entering his fourth season, you have to like “W-Rod’s” strikeout rate trend. K/9’s his first four seasons: 5.6, 6.5, 7.8, and 8.5. Not too shabby. Rodriguez isn’t exactly a guy who’s going to overwhelm you with his fastball, but you have to like the trend.
Huston Street (COL) – Street was officially named the Rockies’ closer on Thursday. Not a big surprise, though there seems to be a better than average chance that Street is eventually traded due to salary considerations. That would clearly leave Manny Corpas in line to close with Taylor Buchholz on the shelf. Street has a 5.23 ERA and just four strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings this spring, but the Rockies clearly value his experience in the closer role. Considering Manny Corpas has allowed just one run in nine innings, it’s pretty clear the Rockies are looking to build Street’s trade value.
Micah Hoffpauir (CHC) – My NL-only league is always interesting, but this past weekend saw something unexpected: a Micah Hoffpauir bidding war. Okay, so one of the bidders was a bit of a Cubbies fan, but this just served to highlight how good a spring this guy has had. I documented Hoffpauir’s 2008 performance in my 3/17 report, and he apparently hasn’t stopped, batting a decent .286 this spring, but with 13 extra-base hits (six home runs) and a spring training-leading 29 RBI. Hoffpauir is a 1B/corner OF, so with Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Milton Bradley, there isn’t a regular spot for him. He has made the team though and you have to figure that injuries and days off will allow him to get 250 at-bats, giving him some NL-only value. Being 29 years of age, Hoffpauir is not your typical 22 year-old prospect, but it’s pretty clear the guy can hit.
Jeff Larish (DET) – With Gary Sheffield’s release, Larish has officially made the team. He’s expected to split time at DH with Marcus Thames and occasionally spell Miguel Cabrera at first base. Larish hit .270 with three home runs this spring, and has the advantage of hitting left-handed. Ideally, Larish would be able to handle 3B duties given weak link Brandon Inge’s presence there, but reviews of his defense at the hot corner in the Arizona Fall League were mixed at best. Larish has been one of Detroit’s top-10 prospects since being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State back in 2005, compiling a .260/.375/.488 line. He’s slow and will probably strike out at least 25% of the time, though a 0.71 EYE in the minors is encouraging. He has homered once every 18.9 at-bats in the minors, so there’s some potential for AL-only and deeper mixed league value, though Thames is going to get his playing time as well.
Andrew Miller (FLA) – Miller was named Florida’s No. 5 starter on Wednesday. Miller allowed 15 runs in just 12 2/3 innings in spring action, but a mechanical adjustment resulted in a strong finish. Before you dismiss him based on last year and his spring ERA, remember, Miller was drafted ahead of Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum back in 2006. We’re guessing Detroit wouldn’t mind a do-over, but Miller may just be taking longer to adjust to the big leagues that those guys. He could surprise this year, particularly if the control he showed last time out (six innings, zero walks) is sustainable. Despite his big league struggles, he does enter the year with a 7.5 K/9.
Khalil Greene (STL) – In case you haven’t noticed, Greene is having a huge spring. Greene has hit just one home run, but a .394 mark in 66 at-bats with just three strikeouts is highly encouraging. Even better for his fantasy value was the news Thursday that Greene could hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols in some of La Russa’s lineup configurations. Considering Greene hit just .213/.260/.339 last season, this seems rather curious, but given Troy Glaus’ absence, this might actually be the best choice. Greene will be better than a .599 OPS this year, and could be one of those guys motivated by both impending free agency and getting out of Petco Park. Give him a bump in value as a result of this news.
Austin Kearns (WAS) – There’s a position battle abrewin’ in Washington. At the dawn of spring, it seemed all-but certain that Elijah Dukes would be the primary right fielder with Kearns either on the bench or in another organization. Fast forward to April 2nd and Kearns might have a shot at displacing Dukes. To date, Kearns is batting .286/.423/.595 to Dukes' .224/.321/.347 and while Dukes would seem to have more offensive upside, Kearns has seemingly at least earned significant at-bats and may have done enough to give him some trade value despite his $8 million price tag. Perhaps the Nats would only have to eat $5 million of that to move him now. Kearns won’t seemingly ever reach the potential he had as a Reds prospect, but given 500 at-bats, .275-20-80 is possible.
Chris Young (SD) – Sure, it’s dangerous to read too much into spring stats, but something is obviously wrong with Chris Young. Young allowed another nine runs (two homers) in 3 2/3 innings Thursday and now amassed a 12.96 ERA in 16 2/3 innings this spring. He’s allowed 31 hits, walked nine, and struck out eight. At this point, it seems likely he’ll be following Cha Seung Baek to the DL. Young is a very good fantasy starter when healthy, but injuries limited him to 18 starts last year and Young has yet to reach 180 innings in his career. The first five games of the season could see the Padres rotation shaping up as: Jake Peavy, Walter “Don’t call me Carlos” Silva, Kevin Correia, Shawn Hill, and perhaps former first rounder Cesar Carrillo. Ugly indeed.
Oakland rotation – Most of the focus on the A’s this offseason has been around the acquisitions of Jason Giambi, Matt Holliday, and Orlando Cabrera and rightfully so. It’s now an offense that can compete for the AL West flag. The rotation? Seems to be another story. Oakland will open with a starting five of: Dallas Braden (5.44 career ERA), Trevor Cahill (barely 21 years old, just six starts above Class-A ball), Dana Eveland (5.23 career ERA), Brett Anderson (also barely 21 and six starts at Double-A), and the well-named for a pitcher Josh Outman (24, fringy stuff). Sean Gallagher’s 5.40 ERA gets him bumped, and Justin Duchscherer is probably out until June after undergoing elbow surgery. Keeper leaguers will want to target top prospects Cahill and Anderson, but if ever there were a team in need of Pedro Martinez, it’s the A’s. Braden, Eveland, and Outman have given no indications they are ready to become 12-team mixed league options and though Cahill and Anderson are intriguing, there are going to be growing pains.
Cincinnati – The big news out of Reds camp has been the battle between Micah Owings and Homer Bailey for the No. 5 starter job. Bailey struck out eight Astros in six innings on Wednesday and now has a 2.61 ERA and impressive 20:4 K:BB in 20 2/3 innings this spring. Owings has been just as good, putting up a 1.52 mark in 23 2/3 innings with a slightly less impressive 24:10 K:BB. Nice tidbit given Owings’ hitting prowess: Bailey is batting .667 this spring himself. It’s sounding like Owings is still the slight favorite, but this one is going to come down to the wire and may be decided by the time this is published. Bailey has the upside and is making a late charge, but figure Owings gets the early nod with Bailey opening in the bullpen or Triple-A and moving into the rotation as soon as an injury hits….in other Reds news, the organization is reportedly looking at signing Gary Sheffield. This would seem to have the biggest negative impact on LF Chris Dickerson, though Dickerson is hitting .321 this spring despite striking out about a third of the time. Willy Taveras would also be a candidate for occasional pine given his .233 AVG (one XBH and 3-for-5 in SB) and .308 OBP last season. Jay Bruce is probably safe in RF, but a three-man rotation at the other two slots until two guys emerge is a possibility if Sheffield inks with the Reds.
Chicago Cubs – No huge news out of Cubs came in the last week. A couple bullpen spots remain up in the air, but the rotation is set with Sean Marshall as the No. 5 and Kosuke Fukudome as the primary center fielder, spelled against lefties by Reed Johnson. … Aaron Miles is batting .343 this spring, but the Cubs say he won’t be more than a backup infielder with Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot playing the Tinker/Evers keystone combination. Fontenot is batting .323 with nine XBH’s (Miles has four) while Theriot is at a lofty .415 with five XBH’s. You know Theriot’s strengths (OBP, SB) and weaknesses (power), but Fontenot is a bit of an unknown. He has a respectable 0.61 EYE as a big leaguers and a .290/.369/.457 career line (469 AB) would make him an above average fantasy second baseman if he can sustain close to that over a full season. Nice sleeper pick for those losing out on the Utleys of the world.
