Freddy Sanchez (2B - Pirates)
Freddy Sanchez has kicked off the season by going 4 for his first 9 with a home run and a double. Please do not get overly excited about this early display of unusual power. Over his 4 year career, he his K% has risen, and his BB% has fallen, resulting in 4 year EYE numbers of .75, .60, .42, and .33. His ’09 prospects are made even more discouraging by the fact that his NL Batting Title in ’06 was aided profoundly by a lucky BHIP% of .295. With a normalized BHIP%, he offers a .300 BA and very little else. For his career he has averaged roughly 8 HR and 1 SB per season. He will see very few RBI opportunities hitting in the number two spot, and is only a decent source of runs due to his low OBP (.336 for his career). He is to be ignored in mixed leagues.
Rickie Weeks (2B - Brewers)
The perpetually disappointing Rickie Weeks started his season off on the right foot last night by going 2 for 3 with a walk and a steal. Weeks, who has been a breakout candidate in each of the last four seasons, has devastated owners with his career .245 BA. Sadly, poor luck is an unlikely cause for his struggles (.246 career BHIP%). Additionally, his discipline at the plate has shown only modest improvement over his four year career (EYE of .42, .33, .66, .57). And, upon closer examination, his EYE improvement has not been the result of a more selective approach at the plate (18.9, 19.8, 19.1, 19.4 swing % on pitches outside the zone), but rather has been the result of Weeks being a better bad ball hitter in the last two seasons (39.0, 41.4, 48.0, 54.9 contact % on pitches outside the zone). This trend does not fill me with much optimism. However, if he can stay healthy (a big if), and if the Brewers are content with his .350 OBP at the top of the order (which they seem to be), he will be a source of ample runs scored this season (3 year runs/game average of .73 projects to 117 runs over a 160 game season), while also having an excellent shot at a 20/20 season. If you can stomach a BA of around .250 and weak RBI totals, Weeks could be a very solid three category contributor in all leagues.
Ubaldo Jimenez (SP - Rockies)
Jimenez blanked the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night for 7 innings while striking out 8 and walking 3 batters. While this is an auspicious start for the 25 year old fire-baller, you should temper your expectations. Until he begins to show better command, he will never be able to fulfill his vast potential (think Daniel Cabrera). From ’07 to ’08 his BB/9 worsened from 4.06 to 4.67. Also, the fact that he walked 13 batters in 19 innings in the spring has done little to show that he has improved his control. Nevertheless, even if he does not improve his BB%, he will still miss enough bats to have a solid ERA. Last night was a nice first step, but until he consistently shows that he is able to reduce his walks, his below average WHIP will leave him on the bench in most mixed leagues.
Lastings Milledge (OF - Nationals)
Milledge has opened the season 0 for his first 8 with 4 Ks. Despite the brutal start, Milledge remains one of my favorite break-out candidates for ’09. However, there now appear to be a few caveats added to that statement. With all indications previously pointed toward Austin Kearns either being strapped to the pine or traded, Milledge seemed a certain bet for 500 AB. Now that Kearns appears to be slated to be starting in RF on most days (I cannot stress “appears” enough as we are 2 games into the season), Dukes is going to need another place to find at bats, and CF is a somewhat obvious answer. The more obvious answer would be for the Nationals to trade one of their 5 capable outfielders, but I have the sneaking suspicion that they are hesitant to do so because they are counting on the inevitable Nick “the stick” Johnson injury. Following said injury they would have 4 outfielders for 3 spots as Adam Dunn would slide to 1B, which would result in a much less rage-filled situation for fantasy owners. The bottom line remains that Milledge is a career .303 / .377 / .477 hitter in the minor leagues (while young at each stop), who also clearly has 20/20 potential in the major leagues. Stay patient with the 24 year old, and you should be rewarded.
Wandy Rodriguez (SP - Astros)
Wandy Rodriguez began his quest to validate fantasy pundits everywhere on Tuesday night as he held the Cubs to 1 run over 6 IP. It was clearly not happenstance that Wandy was a sleeper favorite of so many heading into ’09. The diminutive lefty has improved his K and BB ratios dramatically in each of his major league seasons. His K% progression in his four major league seasons is as follows: 5.6%, 6.5%, 7.78%, and 8.58%; while his BB% progression of 3.71, 4.18, 3.05, and 2.88 is almost equally impressive. The most statistically obvious rationale for Wandy’s huge leap made last year seems to be an increasing reliance on his 12 to 6 curve. He threw the curve 24.5% of the time in ’07 compared to 29.9% of the time in ’08. A big year from Wandy will have mass quantities of fantasy baseball publications riding high on the hog in ’09.
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