Today we will be looking at a lot of the early extreme performances of hitters in the NL through the lens of Singles average (BHIPx). This information is one of the valuable tools you can find in the Player Charts section of the subscibers' site. A detailed explanation of this and the other stats in the charts can be found on the home page of that section. If you haven’t explored that yet, make sure that you do. Of course, you'll need to subscribe if you haven't done so yet. And if not, what are you waiting for?
Mark Loretta- LAN- Hot- Loretta is a prime example of an unsustainable hot start. Before last night’s 0-for-3, which brought his average down to .438, it was at .538. All of his hits were singles, which means his BHIPx was also at that ridiculously high number. Once the lucky hits stop falling in at such a high rate, his average will drop, probably back to the .280s he has maintained for the past several seasons.
Chris Young- ARI- Hot- Young’s luck may be turning around. His 2-for-5 last night gave him hits in back-to-back starts and he is 3-for-8 in his last 3 games, including a pinch hitting appearance Sunday. Young’s BHIPx was an extremely low .103, having a large negative impact on his average. His mark has been surprisingly low over his career, given his speed. That normally will inflate a fast player’s BHIPx as they tend to beat out more infield singles than the norm. Still, it doesn’t usually plunge this low, so a regression ot the mean will be a good thing for Young. He also stole his first two bases last night after being unsuccessful in his first two attempts. Young has the tools to be a well rounded fantasy player, but hasn’t put it all together yet. At 25 years old he stll has a little time, but it is running out.
John Baker- FLA- Hot- Baker went 0-for-2, snapping a 3-game hitting streak, but did walk twice, leaving his average at .294 and his OBP at .390. His BHIPx of .306 is very similar to his mark of .303 in last year’s rookie season. However, that number was only from 197 ABs and that is not enough to say that he is one of the players who buck the general trends over time. A good sign is that his Batting EYE of .64 is now also very close to last year’s .62. While it is unlikely that Baker will hit .300 for the year, his drop off will not be that sharp if he maintains his command of the strike zone.
Lance Berkman- HOU- Cold- Berkman must have done something to tick off Lady Luck in the offseason, as he was carrying a .128 BHIPx into last night’s game, dragging his average down to .167. He worked around her last night, not relying on singles as he hit a homer in his 3 ABs and added 7 points to his batting average. The homer was Berkman’s 5th of the season and his .73 Batting EYE indicate that he will see a significant rise in batting average once fickle fate turns his way.
Dexter Fowler- COL- Hot- The more I see of Fowler, the more I like him. Yesterday he went 2-for-4 with 2 walks, 3 runs scored and 5, count ‘em 5, steals. For someone of his speed, Fowler’s .222 BHIPx is likely to rise significantly. Even with that much luck working against him, Fowler has a .302 average. His 1.00 Batting EYE is driving a lot of that. The Rookie of the Year consideration he got in the preseason seems well founded.
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