Pablo Sandoval – Many people had Pablo Sandoval pegged for a breakout season. We were a little bit conservative than most with our projections for Sandoval, calling for just 12 HR and a .283 average. First, let’s discuss the power. Well, Sandoval had a HR rate of just 2 last season in 145 at bats, and it wasn’t due to an unlucky HR/FB%. Rather, Sandoval simply put the ball on the ground too much to post any significant power numbers ending his first taste of the majors with a 1.56 GB/FB ratio. So far this season, Sandoval is yet to hit a HR, and it is the same old story as he has a 1.43 GB/FB ratio. Secondly, let’s discuss the average. Last year’s .345 mark for Sandoval was heavily inflated due to a .308 singles average. This season, we project Sandoval to have a singles average of just .235 because of his terrible EYE (.29). Usually that EYE and lack of HR potential calls for a sub .280 average, but Sandoval certainly does have some good offensive qualities, which include a great LD% of 25.9 and good contact rate (90%). Currently, though, Sandoval is striking out at a much higher rate this year (23.1%) than he did last year (9.7%), which is a definite cause of concern. If Sandoval keeps that up the rest of the season, his contact rate goes from good to below average, and he becomes a risk to hit even our .283 projection.
Emilio Bonifacio – Emilio Bonifacio’s hot start has him being added in every type of league. I can see the appeal: leadoff hitter, a .436 average, and tons of stolen base potential. However, if you see an opportunity to deal him for some decent value now, I would definitely do it. Bonifacio has been extremely lucky, and I’ll go as far as to say that he will switch spots in the lineup with Cameron Maybin (as he progresses) at some point this season. Bonifacio, in 39 at bats, has just 3 extra base hits (he can thank Lastings Milledge’s defense for that inside-the-park-HR) and 8 strikeouts. That gives him a singles average of .500. There is no way Bonifacio can keep that up; his speed certainly helps in that category but has a below average EYE. Even if we assume Bonifacio can maintain a .300 singles average (extremely generous), he would currently have 8 singles, not 14, so far this season. That alone would drop that .436 average all the way down to .282. Clearly, Bonifacio’s singles average will normalize and probably sometime soon. The result is going to be a significant drop in average. On top of that, Bonifacio will strike out more as the season goes on, which will do further damage to his average. He had struck out just 12.1% of the time entering last night’s game, where he proceeded to strike out 4 times in 6 plate appearances. Last year in 169 at bats Bonifacio struck out 27.2% of the time. Also, last season and in the minors in ’06 and ’07 Bonifacio had a below average walk rate. Throw all of this together and you’ve got a guy who will struggle to hit .270 and will have a poor on base percentage. I’ll pass regardless of the speed and runs scored potential; he won’t get on base enough to maximize in that potential and if he were to drop to 8th in the lineup his stolen base production would certainly take a hit due to hitting in front of the pitcher.
Manny Ramirez – Expect Manny to turn it around real soon. His current power slump is due to a bad GB/FB ratio of 1.43 and poor LD% of just 15. In some cases, this might be an indication a player isn’t seeing the ball real well. However, Manny’s current EYE, an unheard of 3.67, suggests otherwise as does Manny’s history. He hasn’t posted a GB/FB ratio of over 1 since 2002, and he hasn’t had a LD% under 21.6 since 2004. Sometimes it’s hard not to get impatient with your top sluggers since they either cost you a lot or were a high draft selection, but sit back and relax as Manny should start turning things around power wise anytime now.
Clayton Kershaw – Wow! Kershaw was unbelievable last night, featuring a pinpoint fastball in the low-90’s that seemed much faster thanks to a slow (around 70 mph) yet ridiculously sharp curveball. His control was amazing as he walked just one batter while amassing 13 strikeouts over 7 IP. Kershaw was expected to be good this year and great in years to come, however that greatness may have already arrived. It all depends on Kershaw’s control. He walked 4.35 batters per 9 IP last season. Over the Spring, Kershaw seemed to make strides in that department until he yielded 4 free passes in 5 innings in his first start of the regular season. Aside from the control issue, Kershaw’s only negative is he is a fly ball risky pitcher. At this point in his career, he is mainly a two pitch pitcher and when his fastball is timed, he is susceptible to the long ball (only hit he gave up last night was a solo HR, and all the non-strikeout outs he recorded were of the fly ball variety).
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