Javier Vazquez (SP – Braves)
Javier Vazquez struck out 12 batters in 6 innings on Tuesday while allowing 3 runs to score, and 6 men to reach base. The Ks are wonderful, but Vazquez still can’t manage to get his expected ERA to match up with his actual ERA. Last year, a poor strand rate (.67) and an unlucky BHIP (.312) were the culprits, and last night it was a clustering of hits that caused the damage. Of the six men that he allowed to reach base in the game, four of them reached base in the 3rd inning, which accounted for all of his runs allowed. This seems to be the theme with Vazquez – every year he is the victim of a different kind of bad luck. Eventually, you cannot continue to call it back luck when it happens with so much reliability. That being said, if there ever were a year where the stars would align for Vazquez, it would have to be 2009. He has left U.S. Cellular Field, which is a bad home field for a FB pitcher like Vazquez; and he has an improved defense behind him, which could cause his BABIP to drop. Even if some anomaly causes his ERA to be inflated yet again, he should still post career high K numbers with the shift to the NL.
Justin Upton (OF – Diamondbacks)
Unfortunately, it seems as though Bob Melvin is setting up Justin Upton for failure in ’09. Despite finishing 3rd on the team in OPS (.816) as a 20 year old in ’08, Upton finds himself entrenched in the number 8 spot in the batting order. Thus far, he has struck out 7 times in 16 AB. Hitting in front of the pitcher will assure that Upton is fed steady diet of garbage from opposing pitchers. He is clearly aware of this fact, and is pressing in order to try and move up the lineup. So far this year, he has put the first pitch in play or started out with a 0-1 count 92.3% of the time. If this trend continues, he will struggle immensely and will keep losing playing time and possibly even be demoted. It’s sad to see such an incredible talent misused in this manner.
Andy LaRoche (3B – Pirates)
The younger LaRoche was finally given the starting job in the major leagues that he rightfully deserved, but he has since had the worst conceivable start to a season (0-14 with 1 BB and 3 errors). LaRoche has struggled mightily in all of his major league stints (.176 / .279 / .261 in 330 MLB AB), which is surprising given his peaking age (25), incredible plate discipline (101 BB to 88 K in AAA), and great minor league production (.310 / .412 / .544 in AAA). It is worth noting that some of his struggles at the major league level are attributable to a ridiculously unlucky BHIP of .153 in ’08. It is also very important to realize that his major league AB have been extremely intermittent. He has yet to receive the consistent playing time that is necessary for a player to break-out. This year he was finally primed to receive virtually uncontested playing time, but his dreadful start has potentially squandered that opportunity. Fortunately, the only competition he has at 3B this year is Ramon Vazquez, and it would make very little sense for the Pirates to have him stealing AB away from LaRoche. The Pirates have every reason to be patient with LaRoche this year, and over the course of a full season I would expect his talent and plate discipline to win out. Just remember that 14 AB is nothing more than a blip on a full season radar screen, and if an impatient owner has cut him loose in your NL-only league, I fully recommend adding him to your roster.
Elijah Dukes (OF – Nationals)
Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns are the major beneficiaries of the Milledge demotion, with Dukes being the more intriguing fantasy option. First off, Dukes’ poor spring withstanding, it was ludicrous that he was not in the opening day lineup. Statistically, Dukes was Washington’s best hitter (.864 OPS), and arguably their best defensive OF in 2008. But regardless of that poor decision, Dukes will move into the everyday CF role and is probably sitting in your free agent pool. In the two games that Milledge did not start this year, Dukes batted number 2 in the order, which is where he should be expected to bat on an everyday basis. Dukes’ on-base skills are nicely suited for the top of the order (.386 OBP in ’08), and he should provide a nice source of runs, steals, and home runs in mixed leagues. Obviously, the OF situation in Washington is very much fluid, but for now you should be running to your free agent pool to add Dukes.
Corey Hart (OF – Brewers)
Corey Hart, the man of the .325 career OBP, seemed like an odd choice to hit second in the Brewers lineup to start the season. Last night he walked 2 more times, which raises his total to 7 BB in 28 AB (25% BB). This marks quite an improvement over his 6% BB career mark. Obviously, this rate is a sure bet to come down, but perhaps this signals that Corey has finally adopted a more patient approach at the plate. If Corey is more willing to bust out the walking stick this season, he should be in for a plethora of runs hitting ahead of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. We will know more in the coming weeks, as this is certainly worth watching.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
