Mike Fontenot:
After having tremendous success last season as a platoon/role player, Mike Fontenot is having a difficult time adjusting to his everyday role to start the season. Fontenot’s mired in a 2-26 slump that has driven his 2009 line down to an ugly .209/.358/.326. But is this an indication Fontenot has been exposed or is it the result of bad luck? As a career .291/.365/.437 minor leaguer, the peripherals suggest Fontenot’s been more unlucky than anything else early in the season. Fontenot’s shown good plate discipline posting a strong 1.29 EYE, while upping his BB Rate and slightly lowering his K Rate. His power has fallen off the shelf, which is a big part of his struggles, but a ridiculous .182 BHIP% is largely responsible for Fontenot’s early season struggles. With Aaron Miles not hitting any better (.100/.182/.100), Fontenot’s starting spot is likely safe, so his owners should just execute patience. He’s likely not the Chase Utley-lite performer he was last year in limited AB’s, but he’s certainly not this bad either. I’d expect something in line with his career minor league numbers (cited earlier), making him a worthwhile MI in traditional formats and a starting caliber 2B in deeper leagues.
Dave Bush:
Bush tantalized fantasy owners with 7 1/3 no-hit innings against the Phillies. Matt Stairs broke up the bid with a pinch hit HR in the 8th inning and Bush was removed two batters later after giving up his 2nd hit. He finished with 7 2/3 innings, 2 hits and 3 BB’s allowed along with 1 ER. He struck out just 4 which is a growing concern as Bush’s K Rate dropped precipitously last year (for the 3rd year in a row) and is in the same range again this year. Bush is seemingly a “boom or bust” option as he’s been unable throughout his career to get hitters out with men on base (career .719 OPS against with bases empty vs. .802 OPS against with men on). These struggles lead to disastrous outings led by big innings or seemingly easy outings in which he cruises. As a result, he’s a dangerous matchups play. Next week with a two start week with PIT and ARZ at home, rolling the dice on Bush makes some sense against some OBP challenged teams. Just recognize Bush’s honeymoon with fantasy analysts is over as the BABIP and Strand Rate issues are no longer aberrations and Bush’s other peripherals particularly his K and BB Rates continue to trend in the wrong direction.
Wandy Rodriguez:
Wandy Rodriguez at home! Of course it was going to be a quality start! Wandy allowed just 1 ER on 5 hits and 2 BB’s over 6 innings against the Dodgers on Thursday. He struck out 4 in his 4th consecutive quality start of the season but it wasn’t good enough to prevent him from picking up his 2nd loss of the season as he was out-dueled by Chad Billingsley. Wandy’s seen his K Rate rise each of the last 3 seasons, his BB Rate drop each of the last 3 seasons, and consequently his WHIP fall all the way down from 1.61 to 1.31 last season. He’s been an elite fantasy starter while at home the last few years and if he can put things together on the road this season, he will make the jump to a true Top 30 SP. We’ve only had 1 road start to judge so far and it was an average one in St. Louis. Ultimately, I believe this will be the year he figures it out on the road and becomes a solid #3 fantasy starter.
Chad Billingsley:
The improvements in Billingsley’s peripherals have been rather subtle over the last few years but they’ve continued early on in 2009. Billingsley’s K Rate has slightly improved each of the last 3 years and has now gotten at the elite 1.00 level, which he’s maintained this year. In addition, his BB Rate has steadily declined from .44 in 2007 all the way down to the .34 he’s posted so far this year. Finally, Billingsley’s GB Rate spiked higher last year more in line with his minor league numbers. This improvement has again continued here in 2009 with Billingsley recording 10 ground ball outs last night. All the signs of dominance are there and it’s been evident early in the season as Billingsley’s gotten off to a 4-0 start with a 2.05 ERA. He’s on his way to contention for the Cy Young award and with consistent steady improvements across the board in all the major pitching categories, Billingsley’s ascension looks very much real.
Edwin Encarnacion:
I cannot quit you Edwin Encarnacion, you will be the end of me as a fantasy analyst. After 2 years of incorrectly predicting Encarnacion’s breakout (no I still don’t consider a 26 HR campaign his breakout, with just a .58 FPI), I’m back again for a third try and the early indications look like I’ll once again be dead wrong. Though there are some positives, Encarnacion has raised his BB Rate significantly (12 BB’s in the first 15 games or 60 PA’s) and shown great improvement in his EYE (.80), there are also some alarming negatives. Along with the positive trend in his BB Rate, Encarnacion’s K Rate continues to rise and surprisingly early on this year his GB Rate has jumped. We’re still dealing with small samples, but this is a reversal in trend for Encarnacion (who had seen a rising FB Rate each of the last 3 years) and one worth noting. As a result there has been no power to speak of for Edinw early on. I still believe in Encarnacion’s larger overall trends (the increasing plate discipline, increasing slugging %, increasing FB Rate) and think he’s a good candidate for 30-35 HR’s, but at this point owners need to get him firmly entrenched on the bench until we see him making more consistent contact (11 K’s in last 24 AB’s) and driving the ball with some semblance of authority. In shallow mixed leagues he can be dropped, but in traditional formats and especially NL Only formats, he’s worth stashing.
