Choosing relief pitchers is extremely difficult to do because of both the difficulty in projecting saves and the lack of job security that a lot of closers face. So, it is good to take a couple solid guys (hopefully without spending too much) and then some inexpensive guys that at least have the talent to be a good closer, even if they are unproven.
The must have
Jonathan Broxton 1170 – Broxton’s job security heading into the season is rock solid and he has proven, despite his youth (24 YO), that he has the skills to be an effective closer. In 241 careering IP, Broxton has a K/9 ratio of 11.43. Meanwhile his control has improved from his rookie campaign, when his K/BB ratio was 2.94. The past two seasons it has been 3.96 and 3.26. We have him projected to rank tied for fifth with 38 saves.
The low priced play
Jason Motte 670 –Motte doesn’t have much job security and is unproven, but he will get the first crack at the St. Louis closer job. We have Motte projected for 33 saves, and it does not appear that anyone near Motte’s salary will have an opportunity to exceed that. By selecting Motte, you will probably have enough cap room to select one of the top tier reliever, making him worth the risk. Plus, Motte does have skills. In 66 and 2/3rds IP at the AAA level last season, Motte struck out a whopping 110 batters. Plus, despite an unlucky BABIP of .426, Motte recorded a 1.35 WHIP and 3.24 ERA. He was also successful in 11 major league innings, allowing just one run and striking out 16.
The top tier selection
Jonathan Papelbon 1400 – Boston as a team ranked 4th in the majors last season with 47 saves, with 41 of them coming from Papelbon. K-Rod will probably end up with a few more saves, but he will not repeat last year’s record setting season. And Papelbon will give you around the same amount of strikeouts with a lower ERA and WHIP for a cheaper salary.
Fourth guy options
Heath Bell 980 – Bell is a moderately low priced guy, whom we have projected for 36 saves. He posted a K rate of .91, and his ratios, although unimpressive, will not hurt you. Plus, he has a career K/BB ratio of 3.16, making him a relatively safe selection.
Frank Francisco 910 – Francisco is cheaper than Bell, but he has more potential it terms of his talent. We have him projected to beat Bell in ERA, WHIP, and K’s. However, due to Texas’ powerful offense, Francisco might have less save chances, which is why he have him projected for 32 saves in comparison to Bell’s 36. Your choice for your fourth closer comes down to whether you are looking for more saves or better ratios.
