There are a lot of good 1st base options this year for the DC, and selecting the correct combination will be key towards winning a league championship.
The must have
Ryan Howard 1490 – With all the slugging first baseman, it is hard to justify 4th most expensive one when he has just a .250 average. In Howard’s case, the justification is there. His power numbers are simply too impressive and too inconsistent to pass up. He is the early favorite to lead the league in HR and RBI’s. He has averaged 51 HR and 144 RBI’s the past three seasons. Also, he should improve in average. His .225 singles average last season was 63 points below his three year average. As a result, we have him projected to hit .275, making him a must play.
The low priced play
Chris Davis740 – Davis may not make the quantum leap some people are hoping he will, due to a poor EYE (.23). However, at 740 and entering his second Major League season, Davis is the low priced guy to have out of all the 1B options. No other player anywhere near his salary has his upside. He is a power guy, plays in a hitter’s ballpark, and will have tons of RBI opportunities in a stacked Texas Rangers lineup. Fantistics projection: .277/28 HR/98 RBI.
Avoid
Travis Hafner 780 – Hafner might catch the eye of some participants due to name recognition and his relatively low salary. However, Hafner is not worth the risk at the one position in the game that generally represents solidity. He might be worth keeping an eye on as a potential buy, but I’m not using up one of my 1B spots on a guy coming off severe shoulder problems (is yet to dispel doubts about his strangely deteriorated shoulder strength) and whose last full season (’07) was filled with numbers that fell off dramatically. Chris Davis has a higher ceiling and less risk, so why take Hafner?
Solid plays
Miguel Cabrera 1640 – Cabrera is a bit expensive, especially with Howard already being on the squad. However, if Davis produces like we think he will, it will allow you to keep either Howard or Cabrera on your bench in a given week. Cabrera compliments Howard well because he has such a high average. Consider the fact that Cabrera was able to hit .292 last season despite a singles average 43 points below his established average. He also had a monster second half of the season after making the adjustment to Detroit and the AL (AVG/OBP/SLG of .302/.351/.601). Expect Cabrera to have his average back over .300 this year, which will result in an increase to his RS total and RBI numbers near the lead league.
My possible regret
Mark Teixeira 1400 – If Teixeira is able to improve upon last year’s numbers and Cabrera is not, I’ll be kicking myself for paying so much more for Cabrera. However, we have projected Teixeira’s average to regress slightly. Also, him hitting in the Yankees lineup does not look as good as it did a month ago when it appeared him and A-Rod would be hitting back to back. Still, we have Teixeira projected to score the most runs out of any 1B. I would just rather get my power at 1B, and Howard and Cabrera are the top two power threats at this position.
In conclusion, I’ll probably start the year with just three 1B (Cabrera, Davis, and Howard) and store one extra starting pitcher on my roster. Cabrera and Howard have too much power to pass up; taking both of them will prevent you from digging yourself an early hole in the HR and RBI categories. Meanwhile, Chris Davis may become the most valuable player in all of the DC that is priced below eight hundred thousand. Certainly there are other viable options out there, such as Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, and Lance Berkman, but no other combination will match the RBI and HR totals of Cabrera and Howard while maintaining a decent average. The basic strategy here was to minimize risk by paying for two of the top guys, while allowing for lineup up fluidity by taking a low priced option with lots of upside.
Tomorrow: Starting pitcher preview
Saturday: Relief pitcher preview/strategy recap
