Michael Young - Young is off to the best power start of his career, but as Michael mentioned over the weekend a supremely fluky 40% HR/FB rate is the culprit, something that will work itself out in good time. I'm more concerned about the sizable drop in contact% and subsequent increase in K rate. Young is 32, and he's actually been in decline pretty consistently the past three years from his 2005 peak. A slight rebound is possible, but a return to his 2004-05 levels is unlikely.
Justin Verlander - Verlander was at his absolute best last night against the Yanks, scattering seven singles over seven shutout innings and striking out nine against no walks. He was throwing 96-99 mph the whole way, and never looked the slightest bit uncomfortable. It was the best command he's had all season by far, although his BB rate is down from last season on the whole. Opposing hitters' contact% is down almost 5.5% form last season, but the BABIP of over .400 is holding down his overall line for now. I'd expect him to throw a few more outings like last night in the near future, so if you're looking to pick him up the cost is probably as cheap now as it's going to be.
Tim Wakefield - Wakefield continued one of the hot streaks that he's famous for yesterday, as he held the Indians to one measly single (and four walks) in seven shutout innings. Wakefield is the same guy he's always been....in fact, he's probably been a little less effective thus far this season. His walk rate is up a touch, his LD% is the highest againt him this decade, and opposing hitters' contact percentage is increasing slightly every season to a peak of 84% so far this year. He's been exceedingly lucky thus far with a BABIP under .200 and 0% of the flyballs against him leaving the park, a situation that will remedy itself soon enough. He's a great guy to have around when he's hot like this, but in the end he's a league-average innings eater. If you can deal him in the midst of a streak like this, so much the better.
Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie started the season with two quality starts, but last night's outing was his third straight of the non-quality variety. He threw an awful lot of pitches in the first two innings for the second straight outing and ended up allowing six hits and three runs in just five innings. His K rate is down for the second straight season, his walk rate is up, and his contact% against is a full three percent higher than last year. His velocity is down a touch as well, but the main point is that Guthrie was never quite as good as his ERA's suggested the past few years....he fits the profile of a mid-rotation guy, not a #1 or #2. If Guthrie is at the back of your fantasy rotation, that's fine. Otherwise, you're asking too much.
Marlon Byrd - What in God's name has gotten into Marlon Byrd? This is the guy everyone thought Byrd could be seven years ago...did he break a mirror or something? Byrd is off to a torrid start again this year, hitting 351/356/561 after another pair of singles last night against the O's. Byrd's hot April has him now posting consecutive career bests in ISO, K rate, and Contact%. He's 31, so this trend isn't going to continue for long (if it even lasts this year), but he's well worth a roster spot at present. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him outpace our forecast.
