Robinson Cano – Cano, as anticipated, is rebounding from a down ’08 campaign. Yesterday afternoon, he belted two homers, his 4th and 5th homers of the season. He is now hitting .366. Last year, Cano struggled both in terms of power and average, as his HR total dropped by 5 to 14 and his average dropped by 35 points to .271 from the season before. The main reason: a lot of bad luck. In terms of power, Cano’s HR/FB% was just 7.9% after being 12.3% and 11.5%. This knocked Cano’s HR total down, despite an increase in his fly ball output. If Cano’s HR/FB% returns to his career mark of 10.5%, and there’s no reason that it shouldn’t, he will come close to 20 homers this season. In terms of average, Cano’s unlucky singles average of .229 was solely to blame. That mark was a whopping 41 points below his three year average. We can determine that was mainly due to bad luck for two reasons. Cano’s EYE only slightly dropped (from .46 to .40), and his LD% actually increased by 3%. This is a clear cut case of regression waiting to happen, and as a result we can safely project Cano to be back near .300 this season.
Brad Ziegler – Ziegler recorded his fourth save of the season last night. While he is not your prototypical closer, he has the skills to get the job done. Ziegler is the definition of a groundball pitcher. Last season, he had a GB/FB ratio 3.44. Heading into last night’s game, it was 2.83 this season. Ziegler does, however, need to improve his K/BB ratio or he will not be able to repeat last season’s ERA and WHIP. Both were deflated thanks to a lucky BABIP of .246 and LOB% of 92.3%. His K/BB ratio was just 1.36 last season, and he needs to get that at least to around 2. As a result, his expected ERA last season was nearly a run and a half higher than his actual ERA. So, to sum things up, Ziegler’s amazing groundball tendencies make him capable of holding down the closer’s role for Oakland, but we are almost certain to see a dramatic rise in ERA and WHIP (2.68 and 1.27 projected respectively) this season if he is unable to improve his K/BB ratio.
Mike Lowell – It was a wacky game of the offensive variety when the Yankees and the Red Sox got together at Fenway Park yesterday afternoon. Lowell was one of the game’s biggest beneficiaries; he went 2-5 with a HR, a double, a run scored, and 6 big RBI. Right now, Lowell is hitting .328. I don’t expect it to last. His EYE is currently just .43, and last season it dropped to .62 after being in the high .7’s for three consecutive seasons. Also, Lowell’s current extra base hit percentage is 52%. From 2006- 2008 (his three seasons in Boston), it was: 42%/31%/38%. Based on history, we can expect Lowell’s current EBH% to drop 10-15 points and when it does his average will start to dip. Look for him to finish the season a good 15-20 points below .300.
Frank Francisco – Francisco is off to a hot start, as after last night he has converted all 4 of his save chances while posting an ERA of 0.00. The key to Francisco’s hot start has been control; he has allowed just one walk in 8.7 IP. Meanwhile he has struck out 8. This is a good sign for Francisco moving forward, but do not expect him to be one of those closers than can be near perfect. Francisco’s fly ball nature will lead to at least a few blown saves over the course of the season. Last season his GB/FB ratio was .68, and it is .36 so far this season.
Curtis Granderson – Granderson blasted a 2-run homer last night. It was his 6th homer of the season, and his 4th in his last 5 games. Granderson has averaged 21 homers a season the past 3 years, and his recent power surge has him on pace to exceed than and our projection of 24 for him. Sure, Granderson’s HR/FB% will dip, but he is still very likely to match our projection at least. The bigger question surrounding Granderson is his average. Is he the .300+ hitter he was in 2007, or will he hit like he did last year when his final average was a relatively disappointing .280? Well, the numbers show Granderson may be more likely to return to his 2007 form. Last year, his singles average was 17 points below his 3 year average, despite the fact that his EYE was 31 points above his 3 year average. Early on, Granderson’s EYE is .46: not as good as last season’s but still better than what it was throughout his first three seasons. So, we should still expect to see an increase in Granderson’s singles average and consequently his actual average. He may not exceed .300 again, but look for him to be somewhere in the .290 range.
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