Kevin Millwood – Millwood threw a complete game last night, allowing just 2 runs, but he was outdueled by Zack Greinke. Millwood has been spectacular in three starts for the Rangers so far this season, allowing just 3 earned runs over 23 IP in 3 starts. However, I would not expect Millwood to keep this up at all. He has benefited from some extremely lucky numbers. His current BABIP is .204, and his current LOB% is 90.4. Not only are those numbers impossible to sustain, they are nowhere near Millwood’s career averages of a .307 BABIP and 70.9 LOB%. Throw in the fact that Millwood’s K rate is just .57 on the year, and you have a pitcher who is going to get hit hard sometime in the near future.
Josh Hamilton - Hamilton has struggled to begin the season, or at least in light of high expectations and a fast start by his teammates it appears he has. He has just 1 HR and is batting .250 through eleven games. This is just another case where fantasy owners have to be patient. Hamilton is a stud and will hit like a stud soon. His power numbers should come soon. Hamilton is putting the ball in the air plenty (47.2% of the time), but his HR/FB% has been unlucky. Over his career, Hamilton has sent 19.8% of his fly balls over the OF fence, but just 5.9% have left the park so far this season. Once that normalizes, fantasy owners will be smiling as they have one of the game’s top hitters.
Alex Rios – Rios is really struggling right. On the young season, Rios is just 11 for 54, making him one of the only Blue Jays to struggle out of the gate this season. So, what has been the problem? Well, Rios is not getting the ball in the air. In 2004 and 2005, Rios’ first two professional seasons, he really struggled and had pitiful power numbers due to his inability to get any loft on the ball. He posted a GB/FB ratio of 2.49 and 1.55 those first two seasons. Rios’ breakout season then came in 2006, when he lowered that ratio all the way down to .88. He maintained that ratio, more or less, for the past two seasons. This year, though, it is back up to 2, and Rios is looking a lot like the player he was in the beginning of his career, which is not a good thing for fantasy owners. Continue to watch and see if Rios is able to bring that ratio down. If he keeps putting the ball on the ground, though, you might want to test the trade waters because it might be a long and frustrating season as a Rios owner.
Chien-Ming Wang – Wang is obviously going through a funk on the mound right now. He gave 8 earned runs in a 1 and a third IP yesterday versus Cleveland. Wang has now given up a whopping 23 ER in just 6 IP to give him a 34.50 ERA. Can Wang turn it around? Well, he is having some obvious problems with his sinker ball. Nothing is more telling than his GB/FB ratio at this point. Over his career, Wang has posted a 2.71 GB/FB ratio. This season: .77. Don’t touch Wang until he gets that ratio going in the right direction.
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