1. Joe Nathan - Nathan's shoulder soreness kept him from participating in the WBC games this spring, but it certainly seems like its more precautionary than a serious concern. He struck out two in a perfect inning of relief on Sunday and reported absolutely no signs of discomfort. Nathan still ranks in the top-tier of elite fantasy closers and for my money, he's pre-season #2 behind Jonathan Papelbon. His back-to-back seasons of sub-2.00 ERA's will probably normalize a bit, but a forecast of 40 saves and a 2.15 ERA is a solid estimate for one of the best closers in the game.
2. Joe Blanton - Joe Blanton is the classic fantasy case of name recognition with little true fantasy value to support it. Perhaps it was because he was on the A's (the 'ol Billy-Beane-must-know-what-he's-doing syndrome) or the fact that he pitched well on the big-stage in the post-season last year. But peel away the onion and you get a 4.00+ ERA pitcher with low K totals (lucky to see 120 from him this year), modest WHIP of 1.34, and a fly-ball pitcher (0.84 GB/FB in '08) in a ballpark with a negative factor for pitchers.
3. Freddy Sanchez - Don't forget about Freddy Sanchez late in drafts this year. He suffered through some shoulder soreness throughout 2008 that drove his average down sub-.300 for the first time since 2005. We have him projected to hit .307, drive-in around 60, and score 85 runs. Not bad for an ADP of 24.0. There are about 8 quality no-brainer 2B to be drafted, but the list quickly falls-off. Sanchez is a great late-round gamble to fill the 2B slot with a high average guy in typical 5x5 roto leagues. Unlike previous years, he only has 2B eligibility.
4. Khalil Greene - Some sleeper consideration for Greene? Absolutely. Manager Tony LaRussa has already crowned him the starting SS heading into the season. His injured left hand kept his overall production low in 2008, but a quick look-back at 2007 shows a 27 HR, 97 RBI, and 89 run guy. Let's not forget he did that in Petco Park, one of the worst hitter parks in the league. Sure his low average makes him a bit of a drag on the average category in 5x5 rotos, but finding power out of the SS position at this value (ADP of 20+) makes the risk worth it. Don't go crazy over-spending for the guy, but if you find yourself missing out on some of the top-tier guys, wait until the end and make him one of your end picks. Its a calculated risk where a change of scenery could make it a comeback year for the 29-year-old Greene.
5. Johnny Gomes - I was fortunate enough to have a front-row seat to yesterday's Reds / Blue Jays game in Sarasota. Other than a really strong outing by Micah Owings (which I will address in a later post), the other point of interest were the cuts that Johnny Gomes took against Toronto. He hit a monstrous homerun, reminding us fantasy owners who had him in the years when he hit 20+ and averaged a HR/AB rate in the mid-teens. Gomes is fighting for a starting OF job for the Reds as a non-roster invitee, but if Dusty Baker gives him the nod, I wouldn't be surprised to see some big power numbers from Gomes coming out of Cincy. Track his progress over the next coming weeks and any news coming out of Reds camp about position battles. Every year, we see players come out of nowhere and become big power guys. Having already seen it from Gomes, it wouldn't surprise me to see him resume that role in 2009 fantasy leagues.
6. Francisco Liriano - You may want to bump Liriano a few spots up on your pitcher cheatsheets. Four perfect innings and 5 K's on Sunday, lowering his spring ERA to 2.00 and showing signs of being completely healed from the Tommy John surgery that has kept his true fantasy value in limbo. You'll see him in the top-20 pitchers on most cheatsheets, but I think he deserves to be closer to the top of the list of the 11-20's. Be sure to use our projection software to project your own personal league settings, but our pre-season forecast has him posting ~180k's, 1.19 WHIP, 3.20 ERA, and 15 W's.
7. Micah Owings - The Reds have a fairly decent starting rotation. In no particular order, the crew is comprised of Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. The #5 spot in the rotation remains in question as Micah Owings and Homer Bailey fight for the last spot. The early favorite is Owings, especially given Bailey's struggles and at just 22 has plenty of time to grow into the role rather than being forced into it. Witnessing Owings' stuff on Sunday, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be the consistent #5. He went 4.0 IP and allowed just 1 hit while striking out 6 and walking one. He certainly had his fair-share of struggles in 2008, allowing 14 HR in 104.2 IP with a 5.93 ERA. He'll have to learn to keep the ball down, especially now that he pitches in Cincy with a ballpark factor of 84 to go along with a GB/FB ratio last year of 0.54. That can spell trouble. NL-only consideration for now.
8. Dan Haren - This is the obligatory post to take all spring training stats or performances with a grain of salt. Haren got absolutely rocked on Saturday, allowing 7 hits and four runs in 2 innings pitched against the Angels. Forget about that for now and focus on the few items that are important to drafting Haren: the Fantistics Projection Software has him in the 5-to-10 pitcher tier with a forecasted 1.79 FPI, 1.15 WHIP, 3.40 ERA, and 196 K's. He slowed down in the 2nd half of last year (historically has been the case with him), but it was mostly location and feel rather than velocity-related.
9. Jeremy Bonderman - After last week's news that Bonderman was experiencing weakness in his throwing shoulder, he experienced no ill-effects from throwing a side session on Sunday morning. Injury woes have really steered Bonderman's career in the wrong direction, forcing his fantasy value to the Brad Penny, Mark Buehrle, Ian Snell levels entering the 2009 season. He has upside if he can stay healthy, but rest-assured the Tigers will be very careful with him to start the season (which could get frustrating for fantasy owners wanting to get a good jump out of the gate). Consider him a late-round forgotten pick, but don't waste your time or a high pick on Bonderman's return.
10. Phil Hughes - It wasn't that long ago that Phil Hughes was the sexy pick on draft boards. But after some early season struggles and a rib injury that limited his innings to just 34 in 2008, Hughes has dropped off radar screens. We shouldn't forget the 22 year-old (yes, he doesn't turn 23 until the summer) was and still is considered one of the Yankees' top pitching prospects and is a call-up away from regaining a spot on the big-league level. The Yankee rotation is a little crowded right now, but injury concerns to AJ Burnett and Chien-Ming Wang over the past couple of years could open a spot. So far this spring, he has looked in his 5 scoreless innings of work. Patience is key here... be ready to pull the trigger at the first sign of any Yankee disruptions on the pitching staff this year. I'll do my best to try to predict anything coming down the pipe.
New York Yankees - Can Mike Pagliarulo Come Out of Retirement?
With Alex Rodriguez out until at least May now that he has opted for hip surgery, the question becomes more pressing: Who will be the starting 3B for the Yankees on opening day? Journeyman Cody Ransom seems to be the default choice with Angel Berroa (yes, the former rookie-of-the-year Angel Berroa) getting a few votes as well. Getting a few pity votes would be for Xavier Nady to play 3B as well, having played 3 games there for the Pirates in 2005 but this scenario seems unlikely. From a fantasy perspective, neither Ransom nor Berroa should get much consideration. The real question from this situation is at what rate do we discount A-Rod's draft value? Hip injuries concern me, especially for power hitters who get power from releasing the hips violently with every swing. We saw the toll it took on guys like Chase Utley and Mike Lowell in the last couple of years. I now pass on A-Rod in the first round, as I don't believe in making any first round pick that will simply fill my DL-spot for at least the first 6 weeks of the season. But I do like a 2nd round value pick on someone like A-Rod if the rest of your league members get scared away as well (think Pujols from last year). If you're drafting in typical snake drafts, your ability to get A-Rod will be highly dependent on your pick. As for auction drafts, a decent rule of thumb would be to apply a 10-20% discount on his normal healthy value and act accordingly.
Milwaukee Brewers - Roster Moves, Injury Updates, and Keeper League Notes
Lots of news coming out of Milwaukee over the past 48 hours. The Brewers decided to part ways with Eric Gagne after some shoulder soreness and an MRI revealed damage to the labrum and rotator cuff. The now free agent will rehab his right shoulder and will likely attempt a comeback, but for now his baseball value is zero. David Riske continues to make progress after undergoing elbow surgery last fall. He threw today for the first time since his surgery and recorded 20 pitches. If Riske progresses well, he will likely be the leading candidate to setup for closer Trevor Hoffman, making him a valuable Holds candidate in the appropriate leagues. In the short-term, he'll compete with Carlos Villanueva for the 8th inning spot. Bill Hall is on target for opening day after suffering a tear to his left calf. They'll be conservative with Hall, but manager Ken Macha said he would like to see Hall in 10 preseason games before opening up in San Francisco on April 7th. Hall's fantasy value decreases this year with his injury concerns and with only 3B position eligibility (maybe 2B if you have looser rules - he played a total of 6 games there last year and 113 at 3B).
Seattle Mariners - Two Consecutive Weeks of Chris Shelton Posts?
I'm sitting in my hotel room, relaxing from another "exhausting" day of Grapefruit League action. And who do I decide to write about for the 2nd week in a row? Chris Shelton. He leads the Cactus league in HR this spring (not that the HR leaderboard really matters in spring training, especially with half the league at the World Baseball Classic anyway). But the deja vu from that 2006 season continues to ring in my head. 9 HR in 13 games was the way he started that bizarre year with the Tigers. With Raul Ibanez gone and the Mariners finishing 2nd to last in HR in 2008, you would think they would search for options (other than the 400-AB Ken Griffey Jr.) to help in the offensive-pop department. Russell Branyan is probably still the favorite to win the 1B job, but the veteran is having a slow start and the 28-year-old Shelton is showing some life. We have a few weeks left of the spring and other than the return of the best player of this generation, this will be one of the bigger baseball stories coming out of the Pacific Northwest. Of course, either way, Shelton will just be an AL-only consideration.
