Cha Baek: Baek appears to be the No. 3 starter for the Padres this year. He could be the poster child for average skills; 5.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 41% GB% in 2008. Pitching his home games in Petco Field, all Baek needs is a few things to go his way to make him a decent end-game play in NL-only leagues.
Kevin Kouzmanoff: Kouzmanoff, who underwent off-season shoulder surgery, looks like he will be ready to go as the Padres starting third baseman come opening day. He has some nice power, 23 home runs and 31 doubles in 624 AB last year, which seems to be wasted in spacious Petco Field, 2007 home/road doubles of 14/16 and home runs of 5/13 and 2008 home/road doubles of 11/20 and home runs of 11/12. His horrible approach at the plate, 2007/2008 BB%’s of 6%/4% and Ct%’s of 81%/78%, means his .275 batting average in 2007 is about as good as it will get, while he is definitely vulnerable to a .220 like batting average. He would have much more value in a hitter-friendly park.
Jeff Mathis: It looks like Mike Napoli, who is recovering from shoulder surgery, will not be ready to catch by opening day, which will leave Mathis with the full-time job early on this season. He has some decent pop, 9 home runs in 283 AB, and knows how to take a walk, 10% BB%, but his brutal 68% Ct% means he will be a major drag on a fantasy team’s batting average.
Orlando Cabrera: The A’s added Cabrera for a bargain basement rate of one-year at $4 million. The 34-year-old’s power is now well below league average, 2006/2007/2008 home runs of 9/8/8, but he still has some speed, 19 steals in 25 attempts last year. His 89% Ct% in 2008 will keep his batting average at a level where it will not hurt your team, but with the A’s not being a big running team, he won’t offer much else fantasy wise.
Garrett Atkins: Atkins suffered a hip flexor injury when reaching for a ground ball. Being spring training, expect the Rockies to be cautious, as Atkins already has sat out one game. After a stellar 2006 season, 29/120/.329 with 48 doubles, Atkins production has gone down, 25/111/.301 with 35 doubles in 2007 and 21/99/.286 with 32 doubles in 2008. He seems to have abandoned his once excellent plate patience, 2006/2007/2008 BB%’s of 12%/10%/6%. It doesn’t take long for major league pitchers to notice that and respond by giving him less fastballs over the plate. If Atkins does not rediscover his plate patience, a trade out of Colorado could really hurt his already declining fantasy value.
Troy Glaus: Glaus, who underwent off-season shoulder surgery, is expected back around the beginning of May. A healthy Glaus is still a good power source, 27 home runs and 33 doubles in 2008, but his days of 35+ home runs appear to be over. The shoulder is a concern but Glaus has only missed significant time in one of the last four seasons and still is only 32 years of age.
Gerald Laird: Laird, who the Tigers acquired in the off-season to be their everyday catcher, suffered a mild quadriceps strain that will keep him out of action a couple of days. After an impressive 2006 season in part-time duty, 7/22//.296 in 243 AB, Laird struggled in a bigger role, 9/44/.224 in 407 AB during the 2007 before rebounding last year, 6/41/.276 in 344 AB. With below average power and moving to a much tougher home park, expect his numbers to fall somewhere in-between 2007 and 2008.
Nyjer Morgan: The Pirates are hoping that Morgan can be their regular left-fielder and leadoff hitter. He has the speed that teams like at the top of the order, 44 steals in Triple-A last year, but considering his complete lack of power and poor approach at the plate, 6% BB% and 80% Ct% in 160 AB with the Pirates last year, we could be looking at the second coming of Michael Bourn, who flopped in a full-time role with the Astros last year.
Jacque Jones: The soon-to-be 34-year-old Jones is in the Reds camp competing for a spot on the bench. In 2006, Jones was still a productive player with good power, 27 home runs and 31 doubles, but in 2007 he had trouble putting the ball over the wall, 5 home runs and 33 doubles, and then last year he had trouble with everything, 1/7/.147 with 2 doubles in 114 AB. His power was always untrustworthy considering the amount of ground balls that he hits, 2005/2006/2007/2008 GB%’s of 59%/56%/58%/55%, so given his age and profile, it is safe to assume that the power is not coming back. Even if he makes the Reds, he can safely be ignored in all formats.
Jeremy Reed: Reed is off to a hot start in his bid to make the Mets’ team as a reserve OF. Even if he does make the team, he has little power, 2 home runs in 286 AB, or plate patience, 6% BB%, and despite having some speed, he has trouble stealing bases, 2 steals in 5 attempts last year. He can safely be ignored in all formats.
Mets: Jerry Manuel has indicated that he plans on using Luis Castillo as his leadoff hitter and moving Jose Reyes to third in the order. It could be just Spring Training noise, but if there is something to it, it could have a big affect on the fantasy contributions of both players. With a bloated contract and injury history, the Mets are stuck with Castillo, who did show speed last year, 17 steals in 19 attempts despite playing in only 87 games. However speed is for the youth and with his chronically sore legs, Castillo’s body is older than his 33 years. During the season, even if he is playing, there are periods of time where he sore legs do not allow him to steal, which is very frustrating for fantasy owners. As far as talent, Castillo does still retain the traits of a leadoff hitter, 14% BB% and an 88% Ct%, but count on him missing time and going through stretches where he is not running.
As for Reyes, with his growing power as he is entering his prime years, the third spot in the order is probably where he should be. The move would have a huge impact fantasy wise as his SB totals will go down, but his RBI’s will go up.
Phillies: The Phillies expect Pedro Feliz, who underwent back surgery in November, to be ready by opening day, but if he is not either Greg Dobbs or Jason Donald could see increased action at the hot corner early this season.
Whether it was the back problem or age, Feliz saw a decline in his power numbers in his first season with the Phillies, 2006/2007/2008 home runs of 22/20/14 and doubles of 35/28/19, when one would think moving from spacious Pac-Bell to cozy Citizens Bank would have the opposite effect. For a hitter with power and no speed, Feliz has a surprising approach at the plate, very little plate patience, 2006/2007/2008 BB%’s of 5%/5%/7%, but he makes good contact, 81%/87%/87%. If the back surgery helps him regain his power stroke, Feliz could hit 25 home runs, but he would need to hit more fly balls, 2006/2007/2008 GB%’s of 40%/43%47% and FB%’s of 43%/43%/37%, to take advantage of his home park.
As a part-time player, Dobbs has performed well over the last two years, 10/55/.272 in 324 AB in 2007 and 9/40/.301 in 226 AB in 2008. The Phillies must think he is helpless against left-handers as they only gave him 9 AB last year against southpaws, so even if Feliz is out, Dobbs will not play full-time. At 30 years of age, Dobbs is no prospect, but could be an asset in NL only leagues if he sees some playing time early in the year due to his power, high FB%, 2007/2008 FB%’s of 46%/45%, and cozy home park.
Donald had a nice season in Double-A last year, 14/54/.307 in just 362 AB, and his plate patience, 12% BB%, bodes well for his future. However his 76% Ct% against Double-A pitchers shows that he probably could use a year of Triple-A seasoning before coming to the big show.
Pirates: With up to four spots open in the Pirates starting rotation, Russ Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, and Jimmy Barthmaier all have a chance of breaking camp in the rotation.
Ohlendorf has the best chance and has flashed some nice potential, 7.0 K/9 in 62.2 innings between the Yankees and Pirates last year, but must improve his control, 4.5 BB/9, before he can find success at the big league level, 6.46 ERA in 2008. His minor league record offers some hope, 2.8 BB/9 in 22.1 innings with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate and a 1.5 BB/9 in 46.2 innings with the Pirates top farm team.
In 9 starts with the Pirates last year, Karstens showed below average skills, 4.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 42% GB%. If he can translate his minor league power, 7.2 K/9 in 68.2 Triple-A innings last year, into the major leagues, he could find success, but at the age of 26, he is going to have to do it soon or he will run out of chances.
Barthmaier pitched well in Triple-A last year, 3.53 ERA in 16 starts, with solid skill support, 8.0 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9, but has struggled with control at every minor league level. He is going to have show improved command to make it as a big league starter or the results could mirror his late season audition with the Pirates in 2008, 8 walks in 10.1 innings. In 3 spring training innings he has already issued 3 walks. He is a longshot to open the season in the Pirates rotation as he can use more time in Triple-A to work on his control.
