By all appearances the Dodgers and Manny Ramirez have reached agreement on a 2-year, $45M contract .. or thereabouts. While we could hold out hope that an owner would finally stand up to both Ramirez and Boras, we had the absolute wrong man for this job in this instance. It doesn't feel as satisfying as it could, but keep in mind that Boras got about $80M less than he said he would (so far anyway) and McCourt probably paid $10M more than he needed to ... (Nope ... That still doesn't make me feel good). If there was anyone willing to stack up Manny's hitting skills against Chavez Ravine's park effects last year, Manny kind of blew that out of the water. He's one of the best right-handed hitters ... ever. And he will produce. This all seemed to resolve into a scenario in which Manny can play without a hissy fit, which was the fear at the core of McCourt's unwillingness to play hardball. In terms of 2009 value is appears that Manny will be Manny.
The placid lake that is the Red Sox 2009 Spring Training has seen a couple of ripples possibly effecting the starting rotation. First Brad Penny has been scratched from his schedule appearance tomorrow against Puerto Rico after cutting short his Sunday bullpen session due to "shoulder fatigue". Red Sox manager Terry Francona specifically said that he doesn't consider this issue either a "setback" or a "red flag" and Penny himself doesn't seem overly concerned. He feels that it's a simple matter of shoulder strength, and and he and pitching strength guru Mike Reinold will keep working. In fantasy terms this raises a little more doubt that Brad will be ready on Opening day. If not, it seems likely that Justin Masterson would be the choice to fill that slot for the extra week or two that Penny may need. Masterson who pitched two scoreless innings on Monday against the O's is more of an MLB-ready, known quantity than Clay Buchholz who almost assuredly is headed to Pawtucket to start the season. Starting Masterson once or twice prior to introducing Penny would help the young pitcher learn about working hitters multiple times in a game and bringing his full arsenal to bear, an opportunity the Red Sox would welcome. As of now, none of this changes the value of any of the players involved. As Francona says, this truly does not seem like a red flag for Brad Penny at this point, and he still looks like a player who could present good value this year. Masterson may get a start or two out of this but he is destined to spend much of 2009 in the Sox bullpen, barring an injury of course. And Clay Buchholz remains a potential #1 starter in the making. And Clay would start the year in the majors with almost any other team in the majors.
J.D. Drew flew back to Boston to get "an injection" in his lower back on Monday. Terry Francona insists it's precautionary and a little experimental in nature, explaining that if the injection gives Drew relief now the team will have a game plan this summer should the problem flare up. That's a well-woven story but these issues are worrisome. Of course he doesn't know what they injected in J.D. (or he's not saying) so I'm not sure how he arrived there. These issues are related to last years herniated disc which continues to produce intermittent stiffness. Right now Francona says the problem isn't progressive, it's a day to day issue, and there is no talk of surgery at this point. He further explained that Drew was "hitting the ball into the street" the day he left. This is just a matter of J.D. being J.D. and you need to factor in some outages during the year as you assess his 2009 value.
Lingering discomfort in his AC joint has led Twins' closer Joe Nathan to withdraw from playing in his second consecutive WBC. Nathan first feel the nag this offseason but the process of withdrawing from the WBC started last Wednesday after an inning against the Red Sox. After feeling the discomfort again on Saturday the Twins thought it would be better if he stayed in camp. This is more than a convenient excuse for Joe to skip the WBC, there seems to be a legitimate, if small issue here. But the tension level in Twins camp is low on this issue. Joe threw 25 pitches yesterday in the bullpen and said he felt "great". He is next scheduled to pitch in an intrasquad game tomorrow. No need to adjust Joe's value this morning, but we will keep an eye on things.
Ryan Zimmerman looks like one of those players we will be talking about come September. He's going to be showing up on all kinds of mental lists, it's just a matter of whether he will end up as one of your league's most over valued players on draft day, or one of your league's best bargains. Zimm missed 56 games last season with a shoulder tear, limiting him to 428 ABs in which he produced just 14 HRs and 51 RBI after posting 20/84 and 24/99 in the previous two seasons. Prior to the injury Ryan was hitting just .257 in 220 ABs with a .291 SLG%. After returning from the injury Zimm hit .306 in 245 ABs with a .370 SLG%. Ryan will play the vast majority of the season at 25 years old and you may look at his 24 HRs in 2007 and think we are looking at a 30+ HR slugger at third base. And we may be ... but maturity, both physically and as a hitter is not the governing factor in his HR totals. Ryan just hits too many ground balls, or more accurately he doesn't hit enough flyballs. That stat was in a slight upward trend prior to his his injury last year, reaching a peak of 39.5% FB in 2007 but he hit FBs just 34.1% of the time last year. Over his carer his HR/FB has been remarkably consistent at 11.4% or 11.5%. If he hits the ball in the air more he may become the slugger we all want him to be, but that skill does not seem to be developing terribly quickly. In the meantime though, all indications point to a .290 hitter who will reach the low 20s in HRs and drive in close to 90 runs ... and he may score close to 90 runs too. That kind of production plots pretty well in the positional curve and there's potential for more. Ryan's 2009 will look more like 2007 than it does 2008 and he will be undervalued at least a bit in many leagues.
Is this the year that Lastings Milledge breaks out for the Nationals? Well "breakout" may be strong but there's reason to believe that Milledge's game will show an upward trend this season. When August 1st rolled around last year Lastings was hitting just .237 in 325 ABs with 7 HRs and 13 SBs. In the 198 ABs he got in August and September Milledge hit .318 with 7 HRs and 11 SBs. More importantly he took 16 walks against 39 Ks. That's an 8% walk rate which is an upgrade over his 6.8% overall last year and 6.7% career rate. Small sample yes, and a small gain yes, but headed in the right direction. That walk rate may very well be his key indicator as we consider how good Milledge can be. Keep in mind that this year Milledge will still be just 24 years old, he'll get his 1,000th MLB AB, and he still might be able to coax a bit more out of his 6-0/207 frame. For this year you can expect more of the same, namely a 15/65/20+ SB season with a low BA. But there's still some growth here and we can't yet rule out a 20/20 season or two.
The Mets have set up a schedule for Johan Santana's tight left elbow that will mean he will not be available to the team Opening Day. The good news is that Johan is scheduled to throw in the bullpen today and he is aimed at a spring training start on March 18th. If all goes well, Santana could the Mets 5th regular season game in Florida on April 11th. That having been said, his elbow issues can not be fully ignored. Santana in addition to being remarkably good in the past 7 years, has been remarkably durable. If you believe in the law of averages ... I'm just saying.
Jeremy Bonderman's MRI on his surgically repaired right shoulder came back clean and he reports that both the inflammation and discomfort has subsided. Bonderman could be playing catch by the weekend, which doesn't sound to me like a pace that would make him available Opening Day. Jeremy had returned to Detroit on Monday for the tests after being scratched from his first spring outing with soreness. Jeremy doesn't provide a huge upside nowadays, especially when you factor in health doubts. Save him for flier territory this spring.
Eric Gagne has come up with a sore shoulder which will sideline him indefinitely. The reliever was already battling a sore calf when the shoulder problem popped up in his last bullpen session. Gagne is working on a minor league deal which would pay $1.5M if the Brewers add him to their roster by March 26th. That looks unlikely meaning Gagne will have the option to become a free agent. If Gagne currently shows up on any of your draft lists, join Insiderbaseball.com now. If you are already a subscriber, sign up again ... and read everything twice.
Moises Alou told the New York Daily News that his tour as the Captain of the Domincan team in the WBC will likely be his swan song. "We'll see how it goes, but I doubt I'm going to play this year." The 42-year-old had a hamstring surgically repaired last July. His father and manager says he's about 75% right now due to back issues. A good showing in the WBC could earn him a part time DH offer, but there is some question as to how willing Alou is to play in the AL. As of today Alou is a .303 career hitter with 332 HRs and 1,287 RBI in 1,942 career games.
The San Francisco Chronicle reported on Tuesday that Nomar Garciaparra and the A's have agreed on a one-year contract. The 35 year old had been considering retirement but opts for a utility role in Oakland. Nomar gives the A's some right-handed balance for Chavez, Giambi, Daric Barton and Jack Cust. He hit .339 vs LHP in 56 ABs in 2008, but only .289 in 235 ABs over the last three years. In those three years (1063 ABs) Nomar has managed a surprisingly respectable .289/.345/.790 slash line. He also played 31 games at SS last season for the Dodgers ... Of course none of that gives him much fantasy value next year unless something happens to Eric Chavez. The A's are expected to officially announce the signing by the end of the week.
The "tightness" that caused Braden Looper (oblique) to be scratched from his scheduled start on Saturday appears to be a bit more serious. The Brewers have announced they will shut Looper down for 10-12 days. That will put him on the DL for Opening Day, although Looper told reporters yesterday afternoon that he is going to push that timetable as much as he can. This brings us to Seth McClung who was slated for that rotation slot prior to Looper's signing. McClung should be able to provide a couple of slightly sub-NL-average starts in relief of Looper, but a week or so's delay in Looper's debut will not deeply effect either's value.
The A's weren't happy with the lack of progress in Justin Duchscherer's elbow issues and they scheduled him for an MRI on Tuesday. Justin said this elbow soreness is a repeating pattern. He said that to be comforting but it's not when you consider he missed almost all of spring training in 2006 and 2007 with elbow issues. Edgar Gonzalez would be next in line for any available starts once the season begins but Jerome Williams can stake a claim as well. The A's early season schedule will require a fifth starter in week #1.
Tony Gwynn Jr. is still awaiting results on Monday's MRI of his shoulder impingement. Ken Macha didn't seem optimistic yesterday. Gwynn is out of options and the timing of this injury could be worse as he was set to compete with Trot Nixon (well, the injury fairy does owe Trot one ...or two) and Chris Duffy for a roster spot. Chance are at this point that Gwynn will be producing molecularly minuscule fantasy value in another organization soon.
Mike Maroth had a rough go against Team Canada on Tuesday giving up 2 runs in in 2 IP on a hit and 3 walks. He did fan three hitters though facing a pretty solid offensive lineup Mike is a dark horse for starts in Toronto and he is battling knee issues. Mike is recovering from shoulder surgery that was performed last May. In his last action in 2007 he posted K rate of 3.95, a 1.87 WHIP, a .339 OBA and 2.01 HR/9. Those were collected prior to his shoulder surgery it true, but his career averages (4.34, 1.46, .294, 1.3) aren't that much better. There's little reason to be interested in Mike unless or until he proves that when they rebuilt him, they made him better than he was.
Rich Hill's MRI showed no structural damage in his sore left elbow. What there is however is a fluid build up which will keep him on the sidelines indefinitely. Hill is slated for the O's rotation but we won't have a timetable for his return until they get his swelling under control.
Jeremy Hermida homered for the third straight game on Tuesday, taking Edison Volquez deep while going 2- for -3. Jeremy is in full tease mode and at 25 years old, with nearly 1,300 MLB ABs under his belt. You can be forgiven if you are wondering if this is the year. The problem there's no empirical evidence to support the theory. Last year's BB and K percentages, 8.7% and and 27.5% were regressions from his career rates of 9.5% and 25.4% ... And other signs are even worse. His meager .267 career AVG is supported by a favorable .326 BHIP% and it may be soft. Last year with a less favorable .311 BHIP% he hit just .249. That is in part is due to his deteriorating zone command. Despite a relatively steady walk rate, the percentage of pitches out of the strike zone that Jeremy has swung at is growing exponentially. In 2006 he swung a non-strikes 19.0% of the time. In 2007 that rate rose to 22.2% and last year it was a whopping 27.8%. That's not looking like progress to me. There's still time for some sort of switch to flip here but so far there's no hint of it. It looks like another year of something like .270/20/75 ... And I'm not very convinced of that .270.
