Juan Cruz (KC) – A depressed market leads the Royals to a nice free agent bargain in Juan Cruz, giving him a two-year $6 million deal. Cruz will set up Joakim Soria and is the proverbial heartbeat away from closing games. Cruz is an extremely talented arm, having posted a K/I of 1.43 and 1.39 the past two seasons. The Achilles’ Heel?: his walk rate those two years – 0.52 and 0.61. Cruz though is a guy who can strike out 100 batters given 75 innings, giving him some nice value in deeper leagues.
Kyle Davies (KC) – Once one of baseball’s top pitching prospects in Atlanta, Davies’ stock has dropped precipitously in recent years, but there are still a few things to like here. Davies, who has tossed five scoreless innings this season, is locked into the No. 3 slot in the Kansas City rotation. Compared to 2007, Davies took a nice step forward last season – WHIP decline from 1.65 to a still-subpar 1.45, a two full runs drop in ERA from 6.09 to 4.06, and though his strikeout rate dipped a bit, Davies, at age 25, could be primed for a breakout.
Jeff Mathis (LAA) – Mathis blasted a pair of homers on Monday, giving him four extra-base hits and three walks in 11 plate appearances this spring. Mathis will likely be the club’s opening day catcher considering Mike Napoli may not be ready to play the field after offseason shoulder surgery. Mathis is at a bit of a crossroads, having accumulated a .195/.272/.326 line in 512 career major league at-bats. Mathis turns 26 at the end of the month, so his time to impress the club is running short, especially considering Napoli’s presence (though Napoli is no Johnny Bench himself). Mathis’ minor league track record didn’t measure up to his prospect pedigree, but there’s still time to carve out a semblance of a career.
Franklin Morales (COL) – The stuff? Filthy. The results? Ugly. Morales, still just 23 years old, has garnered pre-surgery Francisco Liriano comparisons, but the results just haven’t been there. Monday, Morales allowed seven runs on nine hits over three innings. That should just about cement his status as a Triple-A guy to open the season, and when/if he makes it back will be dependent on Morales refining his new delivery. Morales said he’s feeling good for the first time in a year (back injury), but clearly there’s work to be done. Morales gets great movement on his pitches, but unfortunately, when you see a 83:82 K:BB (last year in Triple-A), there can be such a thing as too much movement.
Brandon Wood (LAA) – With three hits on Monday (HR, 2B), Wood is now 5-for-12 with just one strikeout this spring. With Bobby Abreu on board, there’s no room for Chone Figgins in the outfield, seemingly leaving Wood in competition for the shortstop job in the majors or third base in Triple-A. Wood is passable defensively at short, and with Erick Aybar’s replacement level bat currently atop the depth chart, Wood has an opportunity. After batting .296/.375/.595 in Triple-A a year ago, Wood has nothing left to prove with more time in the minors. Don’t forget, this is a guy with a 101 extra-base hits season on his resume.
Wade Davis (TB) – When you have the type of young pitchers the Rays have, a guy can get overlooked, and that guy right now is Wade Davis. Prospect mavens and astute fantasy leaguers know his name, and it’s likely after this spring, many more will as well. Davis tossed two scoreless innings in his first start this spring and another 3 2/3 on Monday. I have Davis ranked as the No. 7 pitching prospect in baseball, and while he won’t be overtaking David Price for the No. 5 slot this spring (I think), he’s starting to put himself in a position to overtake Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann as the first in-season call-up. Davis has some command issues to iron out, but Davis is a strikeout-per-inning guy (605 in 608 innings) as a minor leaguer, and at age 23, his time is coming…soon.
Adam Lind (TOR) - Lind is a trendy fantasy sleeper (if there is such a term these days). Lind is currently slated to be the primary DH, with his ability to overcome two concerns dictating how many at-bats he finishes the season with. First, plate discipline. Lind still demonstrates a relative inability to control the strikezone (career big league EYE: 0.27, last season: the same). Lind can mash, but the lack of walks and the September collapse (.264/.287/.319 – no homers) are concerns. Another is his ability to hit left-handed pitching, making the homer off lefty J.A. Happ on Monday (to go with a walk of all things) that much more encouraging. We have Lind projected at .296-20-78, numbers that Lind can easily exceed given an uptick in plate coverage. At least the Jays are doing the right thing, giving him guaranteed at-bats. Let him play and see what he can do.
Homer Bailey (CIN) - Bailey should be back on your radar (actually he never should have been off it). Monday, Bailey tossed three impressive innings, allowing just one hit, a walk, and finishing with four strikeouts. This follows a scoreless, two-strikeout inning in his spring debut last week. Bailey doesn’t turn 23 until May, and after a highly disappointing 2008, it’s easy to overlook the remaining talent. Yes, his fastball did lose a bit last year, but there are no injury concerns. One interesting tidbit I did pick up this week: he’s stopped drinking. While we have no direct link between sobriety and velocity, this could reflect a new level of maturity, perhaps leading to a new work ethic. We’ll see. Bailey though has to beat out Nick Masset (bad outing last time out), Micah Owings, Ramon Ramirez, and Daryl Thompson. That he has the talent to do so isn’t in doubt, so target Bailey as an interesting sleeper this spring.
Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) - Wang was limited to 95 innings last season due to a foot injury, but he looks to be good to go so far this spring. Wang reported no problems with the foot on Monday after tossing a pair of scoreless innings. Wang has been a bit unlucky the past two years, posting ERAs of 3.70 and 4.07 versus XERAs of 3.48 and 3.37. We know the strikeouts won’t be there (0.55-0.60 K/I), but 200 innings, a solid WHIP, that hard sinker that generates more than his share of groundballs, and the Yankee offense should allow Wang to be a nice fantasy bargain again in 2009.
Orlando Cabrera (OAK) – Cabrera gets a one-year deal at a bargain-basement rate of $4 million to serve as the A’s starting shortstop. So ends the Bobby Crosby era. Crosby will actually make $1.25 million more than Cabrera this year before both become 2010 free agents. Don’t expect much offensively from Cabrera, who will likely hit near the bottom of the order, but whatever they get will be an upgrade, both offensively and particularly on defense.
Dodgers SS - The devastating leg injury to Ivan DeJesus doesn’t hurt the Dodgers too bad, as they still have passable depth up the middle. Chin-lung Hu would seem to benefit here, and after his long home run the other day, perhaps Hu is over the vision problems that plagued him the past couple years. He could make the team as a backup infielder.
Dodgers #5 starter - No one has really stepped forward here, so this is Jason Schmidt’s job to lose, largely courtesy of his bloated $47 million contract. Should Schmidt be able to get his velocity back into the low 90s, he’ll have some success, at least initially, but we’re skeptical. His shoulder was found to be basically shredded, and at his age, he may be looking at a minor league contract next spring.
San Francisco 1B – it’s early of course, but no one has really gotten off to a great start here. We still like Travis Ishikawa to win this job however. Ishikawa batted a robust .310/.370/.737 in the PCL after a more modest .291/.382/.462 in Double-A. Those slash lines reflect a decent 81:49 K:BB and 24 home runs in 405 at-bats. He has far more upside than his Bowker-like competitors.
San Francisco 2B – Emmanuel Burriss is getting most of the buzz here, and with his ability to steal 50 bases, fantasy owners need to take note. He should win the job over Kevin Frandsen and Eugenio Velez. The .357 OBP that Burriss posted last season would look pretty good atop a well below average Giants’ offense.
Arizona Left Field – This job is Eric Byrnes’ to lose, and with his toting an ill-advised $30 million
contract, a healthy Byrnes will play. Arizona would love to shed that contract, but for them to do so, teams need to believe in Byrnes’ health. Long gone are the days of 50 stolen bases, but we just don’t know yet quite HOW far he’s fallen.
Arizona rotation – The rotation is set, with Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, and Max Scherzer set as the top five. Figure Yusmeiro Petit opens in the bullpen and serves as the de facto No. 6 starter. Scherzer is getting a lot of (deserved) attention with his booming fastball / strikeout ability, but we’ll see if he’s ready to take the next step. Consistency has been an issue for a guy who can look dominant one game and clueless the next.
San Diego rotation – No one has stepped up yet to claim one of the three open rotation slots, though the spring is young. Continue to keep an eye on rookie Cesar Carillo, a recent Tommy John survivor. Carillo seems to have regained most, if not all, of his velocity after undergoing the procedure in 2007. He has the upside, as a former first round pick, to break camp in the rotation, though you have to figure the Padres will have him build arm strength in the minors after throwing just 57 1/3 innings last season.
San Diego 2B – Matt Antonelli is 1-for-4 this spring coming off a disastrous 2008 in which the former top prospect batted .215 in Triple-A and was even worse in the big leagues. Still, the Padres are going nowhere, so why bother with wasting 500 at-bats on David Eckstein. Antonelli may have to hit his way back to the Padres from Triple-A, but the organization needs to see what, if anything they have here. He’ll play.
