1. Jason Motte (RP - Cardinals) - The Cardinals have yet to officially name a closer for the start of the season, but Jason Motte certainly seems to be the obvious front-runner heading into the final week of the preseason. He is competing with youngster Chris Perez and veteran Ryan Franklin. Even if Motte wins the job for the start of the season, this could be a committee situation (or any sort of save-slump throughout the season could open the door for one of the other guys). Pick Motte as a late-round closer realizing this might be a turnover situation during the season.
2. Kevin Gregg (RP - Cubs) - Closer news dominated the headlines on Sunday and the Cubs were no exception. Manager Lou Piniella named Kevin Gregg as the official Cubs closer to start the season. That leaves Carlos Marmol as the setup guy for Gregg in the 8th inning. Marmol's stuff is, by far, better than Gregg. But Gregg's experience in Florida with 61 converted saves over the last two seasons helped him win the job over the youngster Marmol. Consider Gregg a solid #2 with improving fantasy value. For Marmol, his value is now relegated to holds-only leagues and as a "possible" closer if Gregg gets into problems during the season.
3. Justin Duchscherer (SP - A's) - Duchscherer will have arthroscopic elbow surgery on Tuesday and will probably be out of action for at least 6 weeks to begin the 2009 season. While he put up decent numbers last year with a 2.55 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, elbow injuries to any former all-star will diminish their value. Since Duchscherer was going to be a #3 fantasy SP at best before the injury, you sdhould now steer clear or stash in an empty DL spot.
4. Justin Masteson (RP - Red Sox) - Justin Masterson will begin the season in the bullpen, dropping any potential fantasy value from his name. This news was definitely expected and we had forecasted about half the amount of expected games started. I think he might find his way into the rotation at some point during the season, but for now he holds little fantasy value aside from holds-leagues.
5. Torii Hunter (OF - Angels) - Torii Hunter's ADP is about 9.0, but in the drafts I have participated in over the last week or so, he has dropped well beyond that mark. What's keeping people away? Age may be a factor, as the 33-year-old Angels' CF is not getting any younger. But 20-20 potential is still very much a reality for Hunter, who hit 21 HR and stole 19 bases in 2008. A look at FPI reveals a consistent Hunter over the past 3-years, posting 0.65, 0.68, and 0.66 from 2006 through 2008. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that we have a healthy Hunter forecasted at 0.68 heading into 2009 with 22 HR and 18 SB. If you pass on him on draft day, keep in mind that in 2 of the last 3 years, Hunter's 2nd-half OPS exceed his 1st half OPS by 100-points ('06 and '08).
6. Ted Lilly (SP - Cubs) - Lilly recorded 8 K's in 5 innings yesterday (despite getting a little roughed-up). Lilly's ADP of 14.0 is about right, but I have seen him drop lower than 14 in 12-team mixed leagues. The 33-year-old got off to a really slow start in 2008 and was dropped in a large number of leagues. He posted a 6.76 ERA in April and a 4.72 in May, but settled down and 3.02, 4.23, 3.35, and 3.30 monthly ERAs from June through September. He struck-out 7 or more in a game 10 times throughout the year and recorded a K/9 of 8.1 in over 200 IP. Early season jitters (especially with the Wrigley wins) may be the impetus for another slow start for Lilly, but remain patient and you should at least be rewarded with 175 K's and mid-teen Win totals.
7. Milton Bradley (OF - Cubs) - Milton Bradley's ADP of 13.0 is no mistake, as fantasy owners are accurately reflecting the injury concerns that prevail when it comes to his value. The 30-year-old Bradley had a monster 1st half of 2008 and finished the season hitting .321 with 22 HR and 77 RBI. Still huge numbers despite only having 145 AB after the all-star break. If he drops into the teen-rounds, he's a gamble, but you have to expect limited ABs at some point during the season as well as a reversion to the mean. Forecasted: <500 AB, .290 avg, 25 HR, 80 RBI.
8. Fausto Carmona (SP - Indians) - It wasn't that long ago that Fausto Carmona was the hot-ticket in fantasy. First, it was the closer role. Then, it was the phenom starter role. Then a tweaked hip last year led to just 120 IP, an 8-7 record, a 5.45 ERA, and a 1.62 WHIP. Just one short season has led to an ADP of 20 for the sinkerballer out of Cleveland. I think this is a draft-day steal waiting to happen. Is 3-year GB/FB is 1.77, he's only 25, and his woes were greatly attributed to an injury (which looks to be cleared-up heading into 2009). If he can regain his control, he could have another solid season reminiscent of 2007. Don't pull the trigger too early, but try to maximize the value if you can and pull the trigger in the late-teen rounds with Carmona. He's one of my rebound "sleepers" for this season.
9. Ian Stewart (3B - Rockies) - Still without a position, the Rockies' Ian Stewart continues to rake in the preseason, hitting his fourth HR of the spring on Sunday. The big news here is that he started at 2B, an experiment that didn't work last year, but fantasy owners are hoping for this season. With Garrett Atkins a fixture at 3B, Stewart could see some action in the OF and at 2B (with the occasional 3B start to give Atkins a day-off), but one this is for sure: the Rockies need to find him ABs. For now, he remains a free-agent in mixed leagues, but keep him on the radar screen as he could be a big impact player if he gains 2B eligibility.
10. Chris Carpenter (SP - Cardinals) - Carpenter's outlook for 2009 is anyone's guess. Will he reemerge as the dominant pitcher from a few years ago or will his elbow and shoulder surgeries from 2007 and 2008, respectively, continue to have lingering effects on his control and command? If Sunday is any indication, Carpenter could be a good value on draft day. In 4.2 IP, Carpenter recorded 7 K's while allowing 7 hits and 4 ER. His control was a bit of an issue, but it might take some time for him to regain feel. Don't forget, he only has 4 starts under his belt dating back to his initial injury on April 1st, 2007.
Preseason Look Around the Camps
New York Yankees
Manager Joe Girardi made the right choice on Sunday, officially naming Brett Gardner the starting CF for the Yankees to start the 2009 season. While Melky Cabrera had the most experience roaming the outfield in pinstripes, Gardner provides a speed-spark at the bottom of the Yankees lineup that will help set-the-table for the sluggers. Gardner has had a tremendous spring, showing a nice blend of power, speed, and average, but his fantasy value remains in AL-only leagues or in deeper mixed leagues for players looking for 30+ SB potential.
Seattle Mariners
Looks like the Brandon Marrow experiment is over. While the Mariners were hoping he could make a run at a starter job for 2009, Marrow will make the move back to the bullpen. This isn't a temporary move to build arm strength or anything. This move is considered "permanent" simply because Marrow feels more comfortable out of the 'pen. It still remains to be seen if he will begin as a middle-reliever or as a closer, but this saga is far from over (especially with Chad Cordero in the mix when he's healthy).
Cleveland Indians
Manager Eric Wedge will tinker with the lineup throughout the year, primarily at the catcher position. Victor Martinez will platoon at 1B, DH, and Catcher while Kelly Shoppach is expected to start behind the plate at least 2 out of every 5 games to start the season. More specifically, Shoppach will be Cliff Lee's primary catcher while V-Mart will be the battery-mate of Fausto Carmona. The remaining pitchers (Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes, and Scott Lewis) will see a round-robin of catchers depending on opposing pitching matchup as well as day-game-after-night-game considerations. You can see where the confusion begins to set-in. The Indians have Ryan Garko has the starting 1B and a relatively permanent DH fixture in Travis Hafner. Wedge has specifically indicated he does not plan to deviate from batting Hafner 3 or 4 (despite a slow spring) leaving 4 players for 3 starting roles. It'll take some time to figure out how this is going to play out, but this catcher platoon should be considered on draft-day when deciding to draft one of these guys.
