1. Johan Santana - One of this week's biggest stories (non-steroid related of course) was Johan Santana's elbow strain and missed throwing sessions. Doctors have pinpointed a slight irritation in his triceps that is causing the sore elbow. The good news is that Santana had an excellent throwing session on Sunday and decided to cancel his subsequent doctor visits in NY. Of course, it probably doesn't hurt that I'm staring at a blizzard in NYC right now, but nonetheless if it was a major concern, the Mets would have figured out a way to get him checked-out. We'll have to keep a close eye on this situation for the next couple of weeks, but for now, Santana remains my #1 pitcher to be chosen in most fantasy formats.
2. Joe Nathan - The first sign of an injury has caused closer Joe Nathan to remove himself from participating in the World Baseball Classic. No reason to push any sore shoulders for the WBC. The injury doesn't seem to be a big concern and for my money, Nathan remains on of the top-3 closers to be chosen when drafting for that position. He's coming off another tremendous season where he posted a 1.33 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 39-for-45 in save opportunities, and K/I of 1.09. Nothing flukish about those stats, as his K/I was right in-line with 2007's rate of 1.07.
3. Manny Ramirez - Negotiations are starting from scratch between the Dodgers and Manny Ramirez, only fueling the speculation of whether Manny is going to be on a team by the start of opening day. I won't bore you with dollar figures, as they will only depress and aggravate you. The main question here is how do you draft a guy for your fantasy team that doesn't even have a uniform? The simple answer is you wait patiently. He ranks in the top-10 in outfielders, but you should only pull the trigger on him for "good value." I wouldn't pay going market value for Manny at this point.
4. Homer Bailey - Bailey signed a one-year contract with the Reds, leaving him in contention to compete for the 5th spot in the Reds' rotation. He's be competing with Micah Owings and Nick Masset (with Owings the early favorite to win the job), which will likely leave Bailey back at Triple-A to start the season. Bailey was the big-name coming out of Reds camp for many years, but has never been able to put it together at the big-league level. He posted a 5.76 ERA in 2007 in 45.1 IP and a 7.93 ERA in 36.1 IP in 2008. He still remains an "upside" guy who should be on radar screens in case of a call-up throughout the year. Scouts still like his stuff and think he can be competitive on the big-league level. Put him on your post-draft watch list and nothing more at this point.
5. JJ Hardy - JJ Hardy is starting his spring right, hitting .455 so far and going 1-for-3 with a 2-RBI double on Sunday. Hardy came out of nowhere in 2007 and now has back-to-back seasons of 20+ HR out of a power-weak position of SS. Another .280, 20HR, 75 RBI, .800 OPS is certainly in the cards for the 26-year old Brewer once again.
6. Tim Lincecum - With Johan Santana showing some preseason injury concerns and Lincecum coming off a Cy-Young season, it can be argued that Lincecum should be the 1st pitcher chosen in drafts. The difference is negligible at this point, only that Santana pitches for a winning team and Lincecum, well, not-so-much. If you were able to catch a glimpse of Sunday's performance by the youngster, you might be a believer that he should be the first pick amongst pitchers. He retired all 9 batters he faced and struck out two. He's picking-up where he left off and he's just 24. Should be another tremendous year of fantastic pitching from Lincecum.
7. Ryan Freel - Green light for Freel? With four SB already this spring, the Orioles certainly seem ready to let Freel run wild on the basepaths. Freel's position eligibility could go hog-wild this year. He started at SS on Sunday, has OF eligibility heading into the season, and could see a major utility role throughout the year. For now, he's a roto guy with huge SB potential, but could offer a nice fill-in option throughout the season depending on your league's position eligibility requirements.
8. Aaron Harang - It won't be easy for Harang to forget about his 6-17 season last year with the Reds. He posted his lowest K total since 2004 with just 153 in 184.1 IP after back-to-back 200+ K seasons. That's a difference of almost a full rate point going from 8.47 to 7.47 year-over-year in K/9. Is walk-rate also increased from 2.02 to 2.44 in the same time period. Despite giving up 3 runs and 6 hits to the Yankees yesterday in preseason action, Harang looks decent this spring. He dropped almost 25 pounds (much-needed) and with his fantasy value way down, could be a nice sleeper to have a rebound year. If nothing else, if he halves that K/9 difference, you're looking at an 8.0 K/9 which is just shy of a K per inning.
9. Joey Votto - He made a big splash last year, but it was partially hidden by the co-arrival of Jay Bruce. But don't think that we're not noticing Votto's early spring power surge. He already has 2 HR this spring and is taking some huge cuts at the plate. He's hitting .538 so far and looks to be poised for a big power season. If you can't get your hands on the early round, elite 1B, Votto will be a nice option that should fall into later rounds for good value.
10. Brian McCann - After a disappointing 2007 season, McCann had one of his best seasons to date. He posted a .301 average, .896 OPS, 23 HR, 87 RBI in 145 games anyday. Sure the power could have been slightly higher, but those are elite catcher numbers and anyone would be hard-pressed to find production out of the catcher's position that comes close to that (there are a few, but still rare). You might hear Joe Mauer or Russell Martin's name listed as the best fantasy catcher, but give me McCann anyday. He remains at the top of my catcher list heading into 2009.
New York Yankees:
Centerfield Battle
1. Brett Gardner - Do we have an early front-runner for the CF position for the Yankees? Dimaggio, Mantle, Henderson, Bernie, Gardner? Certainly seems like an odd choice on the surface, but Gardner's speed amongst a lineup of power and production may be the perfect complement the Yankees have been looking for the last few years. Don't be fooled by his 2nd HR of spring training yesterday, as Gardner's value is going to be runs and stolen bases at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. But AL roto leagues will want to keep a close eye on Gardner's playing time, as the speedster has the potential to put up significant SB numbers and, if he can post a halfway decent OBP, score plenty of runs as well. If I had to choose now, give me Gardner over Melky Cabrera.
Another Slow Start For Cano?
2. Robinson Cano - We can only hope that Cano's .556 average so far in spring will lead to 1st half success. We all know of his pronounced slow starts and it typically diminishes his fantasy value (only followed by a rush to trade for him before he gets hot). Let's take a dive into his 1st vs 2nd half splits for the last few years. Last season, Cano his .246 pre-All Star break with a .643 OPS. Like clock-work, his 2nd half was more in-line with his true fantasy value posting a .307 average and .815 OPS. 2007 was no different and in fact, was a more pronounced split. 1st half: .274 average, .741 OPS. 2nd half 2007: .343 average, .953 OPS. So do we take a chance Cano or let him fall in drafts and deal with his first half woes? Cano just turned the "magical" 27 years old, which could spell the full-season breakout we've been looking for. I'm also comforted by the fact that he has plenty of room for improvement and the ability to mature with plate discipline. He only walking 26 times last year and basically swings at everything that gets near the plate. Even a slight improvement in that department could yield big returns for fantasy owners. I'm not moving him up my draft boards, but I'm not letting him drop very far either.
Cleveland Indians:
Breakout Year
1. Jhonny Peralta - Peralta turns 27 this year and 2009 could be the season for his big breakout. I don't have to tell you about the need for a quality SS and the variance between the "next-best" SS on draft boards. Peralta will offer good value and has already hit 20+ HR in three of his last four seasons. Streakiness has killed Peralta's fantasy value in the past, but he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, hitting .276 with an .804 OPS, 23 HR, and 89 RBI. I also think we saw a few leading indicators to plate maturity that could lead to more HR, more extra-base hits, and overall increased production. His PA/K improved from 4.1 and 4.3 in 2006 and 2007 to 5.2 last year. His overall FPI improved from 0.50 and 0.57 to 0.60 and we saw a dramatic jump in his extra-base hit totals, almost doubling his doubles production. He's not among the elite SS, but he's a great value as the #1 SS in the 2nd tier.
Pitching Injury Updates
2. Adam Miller's sore middle finger doesn't seem to be a big issue, but the fireballer has been chronically injured over the last couple of seasons and probably won't make the rotation to begin the season. Kerry Wood's back continues to cause problems, but he was able to throw a bullpen session of 40 pitchers. This is a guy who has been on the disabled list a dozen times over the last decade. No surprises here - he remains a risky pick as a dependable closer for the marathon season.
Seattle Mariners:
First Base Position Battle
1. Chris Shelton - Shelton remains the sleeper to win the 1B job for the Mariners entering the 2009 season. He hit his 2nd HR of the spring this weekend and is making a case to be carried on the roster. Remember that one April when Shelton hit a thousand HR's in a week (slight exaggeration, but it should trigger the memory)? Well, that was about the extent of Shelton's fantasy value over the last few years. He probably won't get regular playing time at any position, so consider him just an AL-only consideration at this point.
Positional Growing Pains
2. Brandon Marrow - There was much debate about whether to make Marrow the closer or a starter heading into 2009. The Mariners chose to put him in the rotation and it remains to be seen if it was a good move. Over the weekend, Marrow was supposed to throw 2 innings of work, but only got through one inning of work. He gave up two runs, three hits, and three walks and couldn't find the plate. Every situation is different, but sometimes players have a hard time making the adjustment from closing to starting. Its a completely different mindframe. Only time will tell if Marrow's talent is best suited in this role.
