Manny Corpas: Manager Clint Hurdle will name his closer sometime this weekend or early next week. It is between Corpas and Huston Street. Corpas’ 1.29 spring training ERA is misleading as he has only pitched 7 innings and has a 4/4 BB/K. Corpas did a good job as the Rockies closer in 2007, 19 saves in 22 chances with a 2.08 ERA, but imploded last year, just 4 saves in 13 chances with 4.52 ERA. Part of the reason is that he enjoyed a depressed .257 BHIP% in 2007 while 2008 brought a very unlucky .323 BHIP%. The other reason is that in 2007, Corpas had the perfect skill set to close in Colorado; 6.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 57% GB%, while his 2008 skill set was not good enough to close anywhere; 5.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and a 49% GB%. First Corpas has to get the job and then which Corpas shows up will determine his success, making him a high risk, especially if your draft is before Hurdle names the closer, with decent potential reward type player.
Huston Street: Street is in a battle with Manny Corpas for the Rockies closer job with the winner expected to be named this weekend or early next week. Street was roughed up early in the spring but has pitched better of late. He was not good as the A’s closer last year, 7 blown saves in 25 chances with a 3.73 ERA, and his skills took a step back; 2007/2008 K/9’s of 11.3/8.9, BB/9’s of 2.2/3.5, and GB%’s of 40%/36%. However what would really be scary is if his poor control continues and his fly ball rate is around his 2007 level of 45%. That will lead to some 2 and 3-run home runs in the thin air of Colorado.
Tim Lincecum: Lincecum finished the spring with a 3.78 ERA in 16.2 innings. For a starting pitcher, Lincecum has freakish skills; 2007/2008 K/9’s of 9.2/10.5, BB/9’s of 4.0/3.3, and GB%’s of 47%/44%. Normally the high walks would be a concern, but when you can blow hitters away and induce ground balls, it is not a real problem. Besides, Lincecum is just 24 years of age and showed improvement in his control during his sophomore season. Barring injury, Lincecum will be among the elite of major league starting pitchers for years to come.
Justin Duchscherer: According to reports, Duchscherer is starting the season on the DL due to his elbow problems. This should be no surprise as chronically injured players do not suddenly get healthy when they get into their thirties. When healthy, Duchscherer has some intriguing skills; 6.0 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9, but with his huge injury risk, he is only worth rostering if you can get him on a deep discount.
Emmanuel Burriss: Burris is in a battle with Kevin Frandsen for the starting second base job for the Giants. Burris has speed, 13 steals in 94 games with the Giants in 2008, and makes good contact, 90% Ct%, but has zero power, 8 extra base hits in 240 AB, and very little experience above Single-A, just 108 games. There is some potential here but also expect growing pains for the 24 year-old Burriss.
Kevin Frandsen: Frandsen is battling Emmanuel Burriss for the starting second base job with the Giants. He missed all of last season with an injury. Based on his 2007 season, Frandsen won’t offer much power, 5 home runs in 296 PA in 2007, or speed, 3 caught steals in 7 attempts. If Frandsen can improve his plate patience, 7% BB% in 2007, he has a chance to contribute in the batting average category as he makes great contact, 91% Ct%. At 27 years of age, this is most likely his last chance to be a regular.
George Sherrill: With Sherrill having a rough spring, 6.75 ERA and a 4/4 BB/K, the Orioles may turn to Chris Ray as their closer. Although Sherrill had success as the Orioles’ closer last year, 31 saves in 37 attempts, his high ERA, 4.73 ERA, poor control, 5.6 BB/9, and 53% FB% make him a disaster waiting to happen.
Chris Ray: Ray is coming back from Tommy John surgery and with his good spring, 10.1 scoreless innings, he could return to the closer role sooner than expected. The problem is that when he was last healthy in 2006, even though he had success, 33 saves in 38 attempts, his skill set was less than ideal; 7.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 48% FB%. Even if Ray gets the job back, don’t assume he will be an effective closer.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Due to his 18-3 record and 2.90 ERA, Matsuzaka will likely be overvalued in most drafts. A depressed .253 BHIP% and inflated 80% Strand rate contributed to the low ERA, but what is really troubling is the 5.1 BB/9. If his BB/9 is anywhere near that number this year, expect his ERA to head far north.
Skip Schumaker: It looks like Schumaker will be the Cardinals starting second baseman. Depending on your league’s rules, his value will increase once he qualifies as a middle infielder. He won’t offer much power, 8 home runs and a 58% GB% in 540 AB last year, and should be stealing more bases, 8 steals in 10 attempts, but 5 triples. However with improving plate patience, 2007/2008 BB%’s of 4%/8%, and solid contact skills, Ct%’s of 89%/89%, Schumaker should contribute in the batting average category.
Mets: Although K-Rod is firmly entrenched as the Mets closer, it is worth noting that one of the best closers in the major leagues in 2006 and 2007, JJ Putz, is right behind him.
K-Rod set a major league record for saves last season, 62 in 69 tries, despite seeing a decline in his skills, 2006/2007/2008 K/9’s of 12.1/12.0/10.1 and BB/9’s of 3.5/4.5/4.5. While he still possesses closer worthy skills, the increase in walks has to be of concern, especially with less K’s to bail him out of jams. Any further erosion in either skill could lead to trouble.
Outside of Mariano Rivera, it would be hard to find a better skill set than Putz’s 2006 line, 12.0 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, and a 51% GB%. His 2007 skills were a little off of that, 10.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and a 42% GB%, but still led to a dominating season, 40 saves in 42 attempts and a miniscule 1.38 ERA. Last year, he battled an elbow problem which seemed to affect his normal pinpoint control, 5.4 BB/9, but it was returning as he got healthier in the second-half, 3.6 BB/9. If fully healthy, Putz should be an excellent source for holds, and could easily handle the closer duties if K-Rod goes down with an injury.
Phillies: It looks like the final spot in the Phillies starting rotation is down to Chan Ho Park and J.A. Happ.
Park’s experience and dominant spring, 18 K’s, 1 walk, and 2.87 ERA in 15.2 innings, makes it likely he will win this battle. He had good year for the Dodgers last year, 3.40 ERA and a 7.5 K/9, pitching mostly out of the bullpen, 5 starts and 49 relief appearances. However his control, 3.4 BB/9, and problems against left-handed batters, .301 average, suggests that more innings could be a problem.
Happ knows how to make batters miss, 2008 Triple-A/Major League K/9’s of 10.1/7.4, and his also having a good spring, 3.15 ERA, 14 K’s, and 6 walks in 20 innings. However the deadly combination of shaky control, 14 walks in 31.2 innings with the Phillies last year, and a fly ball tendency, 44% FB% in 35.2 innings, could be a major problem especially when pitching in his hitter friendly home park.
Pirates: Three-fourths of the Pirates infield is set with Adam Laroche, Freddy Sanchez, and Jack Wilson. The Pirates are hoping that Andy Laroche’s spring, 2/6/.375 in 40 AB, is more representative of his hitting than the dismal performance he put up after joining the team in a trade last season, 3/12/.152 in 164 AB. Laroche showed some nice power in Triple-A during the 2007 season, 18 home runs and 18 doubles in just 265 AB, but didn’t show any last year, 8 extra-base hits in 123 Triple-A AB and 10 extra-base hits in 223 AB. At 25 years of age, he is going to have to show power at the major league level soon, if he is going to be viewed as a long-term starter.
If Laroche doesn’t hit the Pirates other options are not very exciting. Ramon Vazquez would figure to get the first shot. He rode a fortunate .290 BHIP% and an unusual first half power burst, 22 extra-base hits in 216 AB, to a season that looks better on the surface, 6/40/.290 in 300 AB, than beneath, 78% Ct% and a 46% GB%. In reality, Vazquez has good plate patience, 11% BB%, but with poor contact skills and little power or speed, it does not amount to much. Moving from hitter friendly Ameriquest Field to PNC Field will further curtail Vazquez’s power. The Pirates are in trouble if they need Vazquez as a regular. After Vazquez, the options are thin, so Laroche will get every opportunity to show that he can be a regular.
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