Josh Hamilton (OF-TEX) - We all know Hamilton has All-Star type ability and is a borderline first round fantasy pick in 12-team mixed leagues. However, I got to see Hamilton up close and personal in Arizona this week and let’s just say that he was even more impressive in person than paper. In Hamilton’s first at-bat in the game I saw, he crushed a ball to straightaway center field off the Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley. The ball sailed well over the 410 sign and must have landed at least 460 feet from home plate. He also blistered a single to right field and drew a walk in his four plate appearances. Hamilton batted .304/.369/.530 in 2008, his first full season in the big leagues and at age 27, he’s probably looking at a similar line again this year. Hamilton’s BB% dipped a touch over 2007, from 10.0% to 9.1% but he also saw a dip in his strikeout % - 19.6% to 18.3%. With a full year of Chris Davis and Nelson Cruz in the lineup, the Rangers look to be as powerful as ever.
Travis Snider (OF-TOR) - Snider hit his third homer of the spring on Monday and is now batting .371 with six extra-base hits in 35 at-bats. That’s great, but beware the 9:1 K:BB. Snider also had a 23:5 K:BB in 73 at-bats for Toronto last year and racked up 132 strikeouts in 426 at-bats in the minors a year ago. Considering he just turned 21 last month, this isn’t a huge long-term concern, but beware that it’s going to limit his AVG initially, likely to something in the .270s. The real question on Snider is how much power he’ll develop, but for now, count on 15-20 homers given 550 plate appearances.
Ivan Rodriguez (C-HOU) - Pudge finally found a home Monday, inking a $1.5 million deal with the Astros. He’ll be the team’s primary catcher obviously, with Humberto Quintero backing him up and J.R. Towles likely headed for Triple-A where he belongs. Pudge of course is a shell of his former Texas self, though this was certainly an upgrade for the Astros. His HR% has dropped in each of the last three seasons and though his EYE did nearly quadruple last year over 2007, it was still a pedestrian 0.34. We’ll see if the newfound patience is sustainable, but don’t expect a huge late-career resurgence.
Micah Hoffpauir (1B/OF-CHC) – At 29, Hoffpauir has made a 25-man roster on Opening Day for the first time in his big league career. This comes a year after Hoffpauir destroyed Triple-A pitching at a .362/.393/.752 clip in 290 at-bats before being promoted to Chicago where he posted a .342/.400/.534 mark in 73 at-bats. At 29, he’s probably not considerable as a prospect, but deeper NL-only leaguers should take a look. Over 2,446 minor league at-bats, he’s struck out at a respectable 17% K%, though he won’t draw a ton of walks (decent 8% clip) and while 25 homers in 290 at-bats is a nice 11.6 HR/AB rate, keep in mind that was the PCL and now he’ll be facing a bit more of a challenge. Still, Lou Piniella likes him and he’ll get the occasional nod at first base and in the outfield. If something were to happen to Derek Lee, his value soars.
Cole Hamels (SP-PHI) – Hamels left the team Monday to have his sore right elbow examined by team doctors in Philadelphia. Before you panic too much, remember that before finalizing a three-year extension with the talented lefty in January, the Phillies did a thorough exam and found nothing wrong. Still, I suppose something could have happened in the interim, and with Hamels’ history of arm problems, this is enough to drop him a couple notches on your cheat sheets if you have to draft prior to hearing the diagnosis. The fact that Hamels feels fine throwing but tightens up between innings sounds somewhat promising, but then again, I go by “Mr.” and not “Dr.”. If Hamels misses time, the Phillies have a host of candidates that could “replace him”, including No. 5 starter candidates Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, and Carlos Carrasco.
Matt Lindstrom (RP-FLA) – Now that he’s done throwing at Netherlands hitters, Lindstrom has left Team USA due to shoulder soreness. It was revealed Monday that Lindstrom has a strained rotator cuff and as a result, he’ll be shut down for 7-to-10 days, leaving his Opening Day availability up in the air. Should Lindstrom not be able to answer the bell, the Marlins will turn to Leo Nunez, so bump Nunez up a bit on your closer radar.
Chipper Jones (3B-ATL) – Atlanta and Chipper’s fantasy owners should already have contingency plans in place, but that becomes even more relevant with the news this week that Jones is dealing with a strained oblique. Sure, Jones has said he doesn’t believe it’s serious, but the player can’t be believed and how many times have oblique injuries turned out to be worse than initially feared? Lots. There’s not need to rehash how awesome a healthy Jones is at the plate, but Martin Prado may be a popular NL-only pickup this year. Prado offers little in the way of speed or power, but he did hit .320/.377/.461 and a guy who can hit .300 with a good EYE (0.72) has some value.
Luke Hochevar (SP-KC) – Hochevar seems to have taken the lead over Brian Bannister as the team’s probable No. 5 starter. Sunday, Hochevar held the Giants to one run over 4 1/3 innings despite surrendering six hits. For the spring, he’s sporting a 2.92 ERA in 12 1/3 innings while Bannister sits at an 8.53 mark. It’s tough to recommend a guy coming off this in the prior year: 5.51 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 0.59 K/I, 0.35 BB/I, and a 6.93 ERA over the second half. Still, Hochevar was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason and should be considered a bit of a sleeper.
Bartolo Colon (SP-CHW) – Colon made his spring debut Monday, and it didn’t go so well – 1 2/3 innings, three hits, four runs, two walks, and a strikeout against the Royals. Colon still has close to three weeks to prove he deserves the No. 5 starter job (we’re assuming Jose Contreras is the No. 4), but he’ll obviously need to do better than this. Colon has been a non-factor since winning the AL Cy Young (that should have gone to Johan Santana) in 2005, but he looked okay late last year and early reports were relatively positive this spring. If he can turn things around even a little, he’ll be the guy, but watch out for Jeff Marquez and eventually Chicago top pitching prospect Aaron Poreda, who has a 2.00 ERA in nine innings this spring.
Todd Helton (1B-COL) – Helton homered for the second time this spring (first one was a 450 foot shot), and those he’s just 2-for-12, both have been long balls. That would appear to be a good sign for a guy coming off back surgery that likely limited his power the past few years. Helton has seen his OPS dip from 1.088 in 2004 in 2004 to just .779 last season, but chalk that one up to injuries. No, he’s not going to be a 49-homer guy again, or even likely a 30-homer guy, but the EYE is still there (1.22 in 2008) and as long as the back is sound, he’ll recover some of that power and hit over .300. He might be a fantasy bargain this year even if at $16.6 million, he’s far from a “real life” bargain.
Dodgers #5 starter
Let’s recap the candidates:
Jason Schmidt – Schmidt, the de facto leader for the job based on salary and prior accomplishments, was reportedly taken out of the running for the job on Monday due to concerns over his slow recovery time between outings. Look for Schmidt to go on a rehab assignment and hopefully return in May, though with him, you just never know.
Claudio Vargas – 7.15 ERA in 11 1/3 innings and 18 hits allowed. Still, the 12 strikeouts indicates at least some ability to miss bats, but how many of those were against non-scrubs?
James McDonald – Will open in the pen, but should move into the rotation later in the season. Nice upside as a No. 3.
Jeff Weaver – Weaver was thought to be a strong candidate for the Chan Ho Park longman/spot starter role this year….that is until allowing four runs without recording an out on Monday.
Eric Milton – 5.40 ERA and an alarming 18 hits allowed in 11 1/3 innings. Only thing he has going for him is that he’s left-handed.
Shawn Estes – ERA stands at 7.37. Stick a fork in him.
Verdict – Appears to be a battle between Milton and Vargas, and with three weeks until opening day, there’s plenty of time to solve this one. Still, a phone call to Pedro Martinez’s agent has to be on Ned Colletti’s mind.
Dodgers Outfield – With Manny nursing a sore hamstring, Dodgers fans in Arizona will get a healthy dose of Juan Pierre this week. Pierre is hitting just .194 this spring, and when I saw him in Arizona in the field, runners were continuing to take the extra base off his gimpy arm. Interestingly enough, Dodger rookie Xavier Paul is 15-for-36 with six extra base hits (Pierre has two). Long thought to be more of a reserve outfielder, Paul could get a shot sometime this year. Oh, and he has a cannon for an arm.
Giants 2B – Emmanuel Burriss has all-but locked this one up with a .385 average so far this spring. He did have a .357 OBP for the Giants last year and with the team woefully lacking in speed, Burris could rack up 40 steals and 90 runs as the team’s leadoff hitter. Kevin Frandsen and Eugenio Velez will be relegated to bench jobs and provide incentive to Burriss to keep working hard.
Giants Rotation – Tim Lincecum (flu) and Randy Johnson (biceps) aren’t injuries to be concerned about. Other Giants starters: Matt Cain (7.59 ERA but 13 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings) and Jonathan Sanchez will join those two along with $126 million weak link Barry Zito (7.24 ERA and typically-ugly 5:7 K:BB). Noah Lowry is questionable to begin the season on time due to an elbow injury. If the Giants need another starter, it’s unclear where the Giants would turn.
Arizona rotation – The Diamondbacks are set in terms of their top five. Max Scherzer will debut Tuesday (3/17) after starting slow due to shoulder stiffness, though he should have plenty of time to get ready for Opening Day. Doug Davis is off to a slow start due to a sore shoulder, but will reportedly debut the day after Scherzer. Yusmeiro Petit is the obviously top candidate to join the rotation should someone get hurt.
Arizona OF – Eric Byrnes has yet to make his spring debut due to a minor hamstring injury, so time appears to be running short on Byrnes’ chance to prove he deserves significant playing time. The Diamondbacks would likely have to eat a significant chunk of the remaining $20 million Byrnes is owed if they want to move him, so the Diamondbacks would obviously love to showcase him in spring games. That could happen Friday. At this point, we can’t see Conor Jackson, Chris Young, and Justin Upton losing any significant time to Byrnes this season, and with Chad Tracy batting .391, moving Jackson back to first base doesn’t look to be an option.
San Diego 2B – While David Eckstein is batting .400, Matt Antonelli is making a strong case for the starting 2B job. Antonelli is batting .320 himself, and with Luis Rodriguez batting just .189, perhaps the Padres consider an Antonelli/Eckstein middle infield combination. Not exactly what the Padres pitchers want to see from a defensive perspective, but it’s probably time Antonelli gets a shot, particularly if he keeps hitting. His awful 2008 is well-documented, but remember, Antonelli was a top-40 prospect (if not better) the year prior, having hit .307 with 21 homers and 28 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A.
San Diego rotation – The first couple weeks of spring training games have done nothing to separate the wheat from the chaffe in terms of the San Diego rotation beyond Jake Peavy and Chris Young. The contenders: Josh Geer, Cha Seung Baek, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia, Will Inman, and Cesar Carrillo. Carrillo has been awful and needs time in Triple-A to build up arm strength after having Tommy John surgery in 2007, but he has the most upside of this motley group. Geer probably needs time in the minors as well, particularly with the concerns over the state of his elbow. LeBlanc has been awful (10.50 ERA), leaving Baek and Correia heavy favorites for two of the jobs simply because they’ve been less awful. We have no idea on the No. 5, but does it really matter?
