Preseason Outlook - March 10, 2009
Ryan Franklin (STL) - Not surprisingly, Tony La Russa isn’t quite ready to hand the closer job over to “unproven” rookies Chris Perez and Jason Motte, leaving the door open for Ryan Franklin to seize the job, at least initially. Franklin saved 17 games for St. Louis last year, filling in admirably for the injured and ineffective Jason Isringhausen. Several reasons to be pessimistic that Franklin can hold the job long, including regression over the second half (4.24 ERA), a so-so 51:30 K:BB and 0.65 K/I, and an XERA of 4.91. He’ll be serviceable, but let’s hope for the Cards’ sake that Perez steps up and wins the job.
Ervin Santana (LAA) - Looking to build upon a breakout 2008 and perhaps insert himself into the Cy Young mix in 2009, Santana instead is sidelined indefinitely with a sore elbow. He’s expected to open the year on the disabled list, and though there is no evidence (yet) of anything structural, this is obviously concerning. Santana, who had a career-high 0.98 K/I and nearly halved his walk rate to 0.21 BB/I, is a huge loss for the Angels and fantasy owners. He’ll be replaced by either Dustin Moseley, Nick Adenhart, or Shane Loux. With Kelvim Escobar (shoulder) out until at least May, there should be two open spots for three competitors, though you have to wonder whether the Angels turn to a guy like Pedro Martinez or another free agent. Hopefully shutting Santana down is a precautionary move, but it’s hard not to be worried.
Joe Mather (STL) - With David Freese being re-assigned to minor league camp, Mather has all but locked up the third base job. With Troy Glaus (shoulder) due back sometime in May, Mather getting regular at-bats looks to be a temporary thing, but he’s at least worth an NL-only grab. Mather does a decent job controlling the strikezone (0.64 EYE between Triple-A and the majors last season) and he’s homered 56 times over the past two seasons at a rate of once per 14.8 at-bats. On the downside, he won’t hit for much of an average and you have to question his defensive ability, but the opportunity will be there it seems.
John Baker (FLA) - For those owners wanting to wait on the catching position until later in drafts, Baker is looking like an excellent target. Baker had two more hits on Sunday and his now 8-for-13 this spring. He’s a left-handed hitter who struggles some against same-sided pitching, but even if the Marlins bring in a platoon partner, Baker could still get 400+ at-bats. Especially intriguing is his apparent slotting at #2 in the Florida lineup, just ahead of one Hanley Ramirez. Guessing Baker will see his share of pitches to hit there. Baker posted an 82:54 K:BB in 390 at-bats between Triple-A and the majors last season and should be able to hit in the .290s for the Marlins. He won’t hit for a ton of power, but .290-10-60 is reachable.
Gaby Sanchez (FLA) - Sanchez started off the exhibition season slow, but two hits Sunday should help boost his confidence. The Marlins have three players – Sanchez, Dallas McPherson, and Jorge Cantu competing for two starting corner infield slots. Over the winter, manager Freddie Gonzalez stated that Sanchez would get “first crack” at the first base job, so as of March, consider Sanchez and Cantu the favorites over McPherson. Sanchez shows excellent plate discipline, though his power is suspect – think of him as the anti-Jacobs, the ex-Marlin with excellent power and a poor grasp of the strikezone. Sanchez did steal 17 bases in Double-A last year, so that could help make up for the below-average power, giving him decent NL-only value. Either way, whomever wins this job is just keeping the spot warm for Logan Morrison to take over sometime in 2010.
Joe Mauer (MIN) - It’s time to become concerned about Mauer’s health status and opening day availability. He’s stopped all on-field activities and will undergo an MRI of his back and stomach to determine whether there is anything wrong post-kidney surgery (December). He’s still having discomfort, so hopefully the MRI reveals nothing series. Twins fans and fantasy owners are holding their collective breaths. Should Mauer be down for a significant period of time, perhaps the Twins pursue a guy like Ivan Rodriguez. Otherwise, Mike Redmond is going to get a bump in his projected at-bats and could have some deeper league value due to his ability to hit for average (with very little power).
Troy Percival (TB) - Pardon my skepticism, but Percival proclaiming himself ready to close on opening day is good to know, but it only serves to let down those who draft him expecting THIS to be the year he’s finally able to remain more or less healthy for an entire year. Percival’s “experience” and salary get him the nod over more reliable options like Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and J.P. Howell. While you can’t ignore Percival, 39 year-old relievers with his medical history coming off down years (4.53 ERA, 38:27 K:BB) need a backup plan and that plan is likely Dan Wheeler despite Balfour’s monstrous 2008 campaign (12.7 K/9, 4.3 H/9). Percival can succeed with his savvy and a reported spring fastball in the low 90s, but three DL stints and a 5.3 BB/9 last season are troublesome to say the least.
Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD) - At age 27, it may be about time for Kouzmanoff’s breakout. Kouzmanoff’s final numbers were awful - .260/.286/.433, though perhaps a shoulder that required offseason surgery can be partially to blame. Not only was his slash line disappointing, but Kouzmanoff also took steps backwards in his EYE (0.34 to 0.17), BB% (8.2% to 6.2% to 3.6% last year) and his strikeout rate rose. Petco Park won’t help the power numbers, but he did manager 57 XBH’s and a .173 ISO in a down year. So far this spring, Kouzmanoff is off to a nice start – 5-for-12 with four XBH’s, something we think he can carry into the year now that his shoulder should be sound. Third base is a bit more thin these days thanks to guys like Miguel Cabrera no longer qualifying there, but Kouzmanoff looks to be a nice lower-tier option.
Andruw Jones (TEX) - Fantasy owners are going to see Jones’ recent turnaround (HR on Monday, 6-for-16 in March after starting 1-for-9 with eight strikeouts) and start to take notice, but the Rangers have four better outfielders already on the roster with Josh Hamilton, David Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Nelson Cruz already fighting for three slots. Hank Blalock should be the DH, so no opening there it would seem. Jones is likely going to have to hit at a torrid pace to win a roster spot, much less significant playing time. Possible? Sure, but it seems more likely he’ll have to open in Triple-A and try and impress another team. Just amazing to see how far this guy has fallen.
Victor Martinez (CLE) – Martinez missed two months of the 2008 season with an elbow injury, also struggling with injuries to his hand, neck, and hamstring at various points during the season. He managed just 266 at-bats and didn’t record his first home run until September, winding up with a .278/.337/.365 batting line. This year should be different, however. He’s healthy and is off to a 6-for-15 start this spring, with two of the hits being home runs. Once healthy, he did bat .279/.355/.456 with a pair of homers in 68 September at-bats, so it’s probably safe to forecast him near his 2007 numbers less perhaps 10 points of AVG and 10-15% on his counting stats. That he’ll play more first base and DH should help keep him healthy enough to accumulate 450-500 at-bats.
Dodgers #5 starter - The job is clearly Jason Schmidt’s to lose, a fact confirmed after Monday’s game by manager Joe Torre. Monday was Schmidt’s first real action since July 2007, and it’s actually starting to look like he may add to the 25 2/3 big league innings Schmidt has thrown in his two years with the Dodgers since they gave him a $47 million contract. Schmidt is theoretically competing with Claudio Vargas for the role, effectively leaving the likes of Eric Milton and Shawn Estes on the outside looking in (where they belong). The Dodgers like Jeff Weaver in the Chan Ho Park swingman role, so Vargas may be out of a job barring another Schmidt setback. That’s certainly possible of course, but after allowing three runs (all on a Taylor Teagarden home run) in two innings on Monday, Schmidt has placed himself atop the #5 starter leaderboard. We have Schmidt projected at 83 innings this year, so that pretty much tells you how much we think of his chances at having a strong walk year.
Dodgers Bullpen - Takashi Saito’s departure led to Jonathan Broxton taking the torch as the next great Dodger close, but beyond Broxton, things are a bit unsettled. Both Cory Wade and Hong-Chih Kuo are a bit behind this spring. Kuo is being brought along slowly due to his injury history. He was supposed to see his first game action on Monday, but no sign of him in the Dodger box score. Wade meanwhile was a huge boost to Joe Torre last year, compiling a 2.27 ERA in 71.1 innings. He did benefit quite a bit from a .218 BHIP%, though Wade’s command (15 BB) should help offset the expected regression in BHIP% this year. He’s nursing a sore shoulder this spring, but no word that it’s serious. Should Broxton falter in his new role, Kuo would likely assume closer duties assuming (a bit of a leap) that he’s healthy at the time.
Arizona LF – What to do with Eric Byrnes? With the desire to play all of Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson, and Chad Tracy every day, that would seemingly leave Byrnes out of work. Still, with Byrnes due $20 million through 2010, Arizona has all the incentive in the world to play Byrnes in attempt to build a little trade value. Byrnes fell off the map last year after posting an .813 OPS with 21 homers and 50 stolen bases in 2007, but at age 33, it’s hard to believe that he’s fallen completely off the map overnight. Byrnes is being held back this spring due to hamstring issues, but he’s scheduled to be playing in gamees later this week. It’s hard to know what to expect here, but it seems Byrnes is going to be in need of an injury to see regular playing time.
Arizona Bullpen – Chad Qualls is still set to close this season and after posting an impressive 71:18 K:BB in 73.2 innings, he has the full and complete confidence of his manager. Beyond Qualls you have Jon Rauch and Tony Pena. Rauch fell apart after the trade to Arizona last year, with it being recently revealed that Rauch had some personal problems that likely contributed to his poor performance. Expect better things from Rauch this year, though he’d have to battle Pena should something happen to Qualls. Pena’s been a bit frustrating, as his stuff looks like a 1.0 K/I guy, but he’s been at 0.72, 0.74, and 0.72 in each of his first three seasons. Still, if Pena can harness his stuff and hold up a bit better down the stretch (ERAs of 5.58, 4.61, and 5.71 after the break from 2006-2008). We’ll give the slight edge to Rauch as Qualls’ top set-up man for now, but this is a situation likely to remain fluid for awhile.
San Francisco 2B – The competitors: Emmanuel Burris, Eugenio Velez, and Kevin Frandsen. The leader? It has to be Burriss. He was the favorite entering spring training and so far, Burris is 10-for-27. On the downside, Burriss has about as much power as Juan Pierre, but fantasy owners are more interested in the 40+ stolen bases. It seems likely Burriss will be leading off for the Giants on opening day and should be targeted aggressively for the stolen bases.
San Francisco 1B – It appears Travis Ishikawa is getting closer to locking up the first base job. To date this spring, Ishikawa is 10-for-31 with four extra-base hits (two long balls) and a .621 SLG%. He may end up in a platoon situation, but there’s no real right-handed competition (Josh Phelps?) for Ishikawa, so unless the Giants decided to go with Pablo Sandoval at 1B and Conor Gillaspie at third, Ishikawa appears set for significant at-bats.
San Diego rotation – As I wrote last week, the Padres have three rotation slots up in the air and nothing has changed there. The competitors: Josh Geer, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia, Cha Seung Baek, Will Inman, and Cesar Carrillo. A motley bunch at best. We haven’t seen enough innings to name favorites here, but considering the names here, does it really matter? Carrillo, a former first round pick, is the most intriguing, but he’s struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery and is probably better off building arm strength in the minors. If you wind up having to draft one of these guys, play them at home against bad teams where all possible.
San Diego 2B – David Eckstein or Matt Antonelli. The no-upside veteran or the former top prospect who fell off the map last year. The Padres would love to see Antonelli come into his own and win the job, but Eckstein won’t go down without a fight. Antonelli tripled in his only at-bat on Monday and is 5-for-16 early on, so as long as he can keep pace, consider him in NL-only leagues. Why the going nowhere Padres would waste at-bats on a guy like Eckstein unless he (and Antonelli) gave them no choice is beyond me. There may be room for both however, as Luis Rodriguez (the presumed starting SS) is just 1-for-10. Of course this wouldn’t be an ideal defensive alignment, particularly with the below-average Kevin Kouzmanoff at third.
