The Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley is still having problems regarding his strained groin. He will not start Sunday but will partake in a bullpen session today. Hopefully Billingsley’s groin problem won’t linger too much longer or it could impact the start of his season.
Alex Gordon was once a prized possession in the Kansas City organization, but he has failed to deliver on the high expectations set forth for him. In two full seasons, he has just 31 HR along with a .253 average. He also has only driven in 119 runs, scored 132 times, and stolen 23 bases. So, what has gone wrong for Gordon? Well, he has decent loft in his swing (.75 GB/FB ratio) but just does not have the projected power for whatever reason. In his two major league seasons, he has posted mediocre to below average HR/FB% of 8.5% and 8.9%. If those numbers are indicative of Gordon’s power potential, he probably will not experience a breakout year in ’09 but there are still indicators that Gordon could improve. However slightly, his HR/FB% did grow. Also, Gordon’s LD% grew by 1.5% and FB% by 4%, meaning more extra base hits are likely. Maybe most important, Gordon almost doubled his EYE with a .55 output in ’08 compared to just a .33 EYE in his rookie campaign. Look for modest improvement across the board for Gordon this season; we have him projected for career highs in all of the major fantasy categories except SB.
Gil Meche will be Kansas City’s Opening Day starter. He has endured a difficult Spring Training thus far, but he returns as KC’s ace, having led them in victories last season with 14. Look for Meche to post similar numbers this season, meaning another sub-4 ERA and WHIP around 1.30 to go with 180+ strikeouts. Those might not be dominant #1 type numbers, but they are certainly very respectable, and Meche’s peripherals the past two seasons indicate those numbers are certainly attainable. Meche has improved his control the past two seasons, posting the two best K/BB ratios of his life, 2.52 and 2.51 repectively. He has also improved his GB/FB ratio as his career has progressed, posting a GB/FB ratio of over 1 in each of the past three seasons. Also, after very poor quality start percentages in ’05 and ’06, Meche has been much more consistent in ’07 and ’08, throwing quality starts 65% of the time. All these improvements show why Meche was one of the top pitchers in his free agent class and why he makes a solid fantasy pitcher.
The Tampa Bay Rays have sent left handed pitcher David Price down to the minor leagues. The move is not indicative of Price’s skills. Rather, with a deep rotation, the Rays have decided to play it safe with their top pitching prospect. Price will have his pitch count and rest monitored closely in the minors, with the intention that he will join the Tampa rotation at some point during the season. There is no reason to think he won’t be successful when that happens, so his demotion may actually turn him into a draft day bargain if you have the bench space to store him for a while.
Expect a better fantasy season out of the young (22 YO) Seattle ace, Felix Hernandez. Last year, he was very unlucky when it came to getting W’s. King Felix had a solid quality start percentage of 61%, which led to an expected win total of 14 games, yet Felix won only 9. It is highly unlucky that Felix would have another season where his win total is that far below his expected win total, so fantasy owners should anticipate somewhere near 15 wins this season.
The White Sox enjoyed a breakout season from Carlos Quentin in 2008, and many fantasy owners will probably be quick to dismiss it as a fluke since it really came from out of nowhere. While Quentin’s 20.7HR/FB% probably won’t be repeated, his improved EYE (.88 in ’08, .33 in ’07) and increased FB% indicate that Quentin should once again post good power numbers.
The Toronto Blue Jays are hoping for a comeback season of sorts for their 3B Scott Rolen. Rolen was once a top five slugger at his position but age (33 YO) and a nagging injury have prevented him from repeating the success he experience as a youth prior to the 2005 season. However, the Jays are cautiously optimistic that Rolen can make strides towards being that player once again. After yet another shoulder injury forced Rolen to the DL last season, Jays’ coaches worked with Rolen and tweaked his swing. The result was twofold. First of all, the new swing puts less pressure on Rolen’s shoulder, hopefully meaning he can avoid any DL time this season due to shoulder issues. Secondly, Rolen met his new swing with success. After returning from the DL on August 29th last season, Rolen had his best month of the year. He used his new swing to post an AVG/SLG/OBP line of .298/.350/.532 over the season’s last 27 games.
Behind Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch serves as the Blue Jay’s only other returning member of last year’s rotation. Not a good sign. Litsch is tough and a competitor, but he just does not have the skills to be a consistently successful starter, and the fact that he is entering ’09 as the Jay’s #2 should scare fans. The past two seasons, Litsch has posted relatively high LOB% (73.9% and 74.1%) and relatively low BABIP (.279 and .285). Those numbers are a bit lucky for any pitcher, but particularly for a pitcher with a bad K rate like Litsch. Over the past two years, Litsch has struck out just 4.05 and 5.06 batters per 9 innings respectively. The fact that Litsch is a GB pitcher (1.47 career GB/FB ratio) helps out his cause, but he also has a career K/BB ratio of only 1.99. I would expect Litsch’s BABIP closer to .300 this season and his LOB% closer to 70%. As a result, Litsch will post an ERA over 4 and a much higher WHIP than last year’s 1.23 mark.
Jorge De La Rosa is one of a few Rockie pitchers with very high ERA’s this spring. In 14 innings of work, De La Rosa has an ERA of 9.42, yet he is a virtual lock to be a part of Colorado’s rotation when the season begins. De La Rosa is an interesting player. He gets a job in the rotation, despite never having any degree of success in parts of 5 major league seasons. His career ERA is 5.55 with a WHIP of 1.65. A move to Coors would appear to make things only worse. However, De La Rosa still has some good skills and ones that should help him avoid letting Coors Field get the best of him. First of all, he is a strikeout pitcher. Last year with the Rockies, De La Rosa struck out just under a batter an inning in 130 innings of work. Also, De La Rosa is a groundball pitcher. Last year, he posted a GB/FB ratio of 1.33 last season and gave up only .90 HR/9. Despite this, De La Rosa got a bit unlucky. His 2008 ERA of 4.92 was much higher than his expected ERA of 4.28. If De La Rosa continues to be both a strikeout and groundball pitcher, he could experience success this season and be a sleeper in NL only leagues, particularly if he can sort out his control problems (career BB/9 of 4.92).
Long time Rockie Todd Helton is having a very solid Spring Training, hitting .423/.500/.962. This is only over 26 at bats, but fantasy owners should still take note of Helton’s high slugging percentage, particularly since it is in large part due to his 4 HR. Those are definitely a good sign for an aging player who has seen his power numbers steadily decline recently. He has gone from a 30 HR guy to a 15 HR guy. Despite this, Helton may be undervalued this year. Why? Well, owners may be passing him up because he missed time due to injury last season and on top of his declining average, Helton hit just .264 last year. However, that was due to Helton’s lowest singles average of the past four seasons. Helton still managed a good LD% of 23.4% and EYE of 1.22. Those two numbers combined are signs of a .300 hitter, and with better luck this season, Helton will be a .300 hitter again. If Spring is any indication, he should also have a rebound in the power department. Target Helton late in drafts as a solid backup.
Nick Johnson (WAS) has an ADP of 36, making him a good risk/reward pick come draft day. He is very injury prone but people tend to forget, he is also very talented. According to our projected roto values, the 5 first basement just better than Johnson are going 10-15 rounds earlier than him, as are the 3 first baseman just worse than Johnson. If it’s late in the draft, take a chance on Johnson; we have him projected to hit .288 with 22 HR and 87 RBI’s.
Although Phillies ace Cole Hamels’ arm issues seem to be nothing serious, I am a little worried about him heading into ’09. He will be good, no doubt; I’m just not sure how good. Despite lowering his ERA in each of the past two season, he has also lowered his K rate and quite significantly. In his rookie campaign, Hamels flashed dominance striking out 9.86 batters per 9 IP. That number was lowered to 8.69 in ’07 and 7.76 last season. There’s a good chance I’m being overly picky, but the reduced K numbers indicate to me Hamels isn’t fooling as many batters with his changeup and that one of these years those results will negatively impact his favorable LOB% and BABIP numbers.
Seattle’s Jose Lopez is a good MI field option that can be held at a reasonable price. For example, he is going six rounds after Robinson Cano, a player that Lopez beat in every single fantasy category. And, as Anthony mentions in the projection notes, Lopez saw a 9.1% jump in his EBH%, making him a potential breakout candidate.
Baltimore’s Brian Roberts is way overvalued in snake draft leagues. On average, he is going in the 4th round, ahead of other middle infielders such as Dan Uggla, Alexei Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, and many others. This is way too high for a player who offers absolutely no power (around 10HR, less than 60 RBI’s). He hasn’t hit .300 in any of the past three seasons, and while he has good RS numbers, they are nothing special. Also, Roberts saw his SB total drop by 10 last season, and at age 31, we could see another drop.
Last year I projected Michael Young (TEX) to stop his string of consecutive .300 seasons due to a variety of reason (plate discipline, declining power were at the top of the list). For those same reasons, I don’t think Young’s .284 performance was a fluke. So, those of you expecting him to be back to his .300 ways may be disappointed. The Fantistics projection for Young actually sees another decline in his average, predicting a .278 mark. Last season, Young did boost his EYE back up a little, but he posted the worst LD% of his career and a HR/FB percentage that was nearly 2 points below his career average.
Shane Victorino (PHI) is another player I have a beef with concerning his ADP. Victorino is currently going in the 6th round of drafts. Like Brian Roberts, VIctorino does not offer much in terms of speed and his high ADP is almost more indefensible since he is an OF and one with durability issues at that. People need to draft for overall value in the beginning of drafts; you can find cheap speed specialists later if it turns out you even need them. Victorino has never hit 15 or more homers or driven in 60 or more runs.
