Cameron Maybin:
Talent has never been the question with Maybin and he’s flashing it again this spring. A 3-3 performance on Friday raised his spring average to .414 (10-29). Maybin came into camp being handed the everyday CF job and the leadoff spot in the lineup and he’s done everything to solidify that claim here in the spring. But will this success carry over into the season? Maybin’s had just about 400 AB’s at the AA level and posted some impressive power and speed combinations in those AB’s popping 17 HR’s and swiping 21 bases. While the fantasy potential is there inconsistency will be a hurdle for the youngster. His .51 EYE and ugly 31.7% K Rate suggests he’ll likely be a bit overmatched this year. Maybin had success in a limited call-up last season and should have bursts of production this year as his talent is immense, but with such low contact rates at AA he’s going to bring some serious batting average downside and some limited power potential (with just an 8.7% career minor league extra base hit rate). The future is bright for Maybin but this year his best chance at a fantasy impact is a Carlos Gomez type speedster who provides SB’s and Runs.
Jason Donald:
Chase Utley’s hip surgery looked to have opened up a short term opportunity for one of the more unheralded prospects in the game: Jason Donald. Donald’s done nothing but hit since becoming a professional posting a .300+ average in both of his full minor league seasons and showing excellent plate patience that has resulted in a .384 OBP at the minor league level. He’s a skilled defender who’s better suited to play up the middle long-term, which may result in Donald being more of a trade chip for a Phillies team loaded up the middle, but he’s also capable of playing 3B. With Pedro Feliz showing some signs of aging last year at 33 (declining power rates, despite an improving ballpark) and recovering from back surgery, Donald could be a late round sleeper option for those in NL only formats. Donald’s 2-5 effort on Friday pushed his spring average to .361. The former Arizona product has also shown a capable batting EYE early on in spring with a solid 7:4 K:BB Ratio. Continue to monitor Feliz’s health as that will be a direct indication at Donald’s shot at starting the year, but he’s got the talent to stick if he can get the opportunity.
Adam Jones:
Spring indicators can always be a bit of a crapshoot but something I do like to pay attention to is the SB attempts. In 7 spring games, Adam Jones has now accumulated 6 SB’s and he’s done this while getting on base just 8 times. Jones was never a big base stealer in the minor leagues (topping out at just 13), but he’s always possessed the speed and last year he swiped 10 bags in 13 attempts. Jones looks to be working on running more often and add in some growth in his power curve and he could be a viable 20-20 candidate this season. With an ADP currently in the 26th round or so, Jones makes a nice Roto bargain, who we project as a potential double digit value with a 20-20 season.
Khalil Greene:
Quietly on the comeback trail, Khalil Greene is putting together a nice spring training. 2008 was a throwaway year for Greene as he battled injuries and himself in a disappointing season that yielded just 10 HR’s and a paltry .213 average in 389 AB’s. This year he’s got a change of scenery with a team that tends to rejuvenate everyone (the Cardinals) and he’s the clear cut starting SS. Greene knocked out his 1st HR of the spring in a 2-3 effort on Friday that brought his spring average up to .367. More importantly though for Greene are the early results in his contact rates. Greene’s season really spun out of control last year as his K Rate sky-rocketed up over 27%. Having always sat in the 19-20% range this was an unusual spike for Greene and one that if he can correct, strong results should follow. He’s moving to a better hitters park and a better division for opposing pitching, while Greene won’t provide much in the way of batting average or speed, he’s a cheap source of power who is being undrafted in most leagues. In NL only formats he has obvious value and even in deep leagues power starved teams can help themselves with someone like Greene in the MI spot. He’s a low cost, medium reward draft day bargain who deserves more attention than he’s received.
Brett Cecil:
Another solid outing from Brett Cecil seems to push him closer to securing a rotation spot at the back of the Blue Jays rotation. Cecil threw 3 2/3 shutout innings against the Rays (albeit mostly backups) on Friday and lowered his spring ERA to 3.09. The peripherals weren’t impressive in this outing as Cecil walked 4 and struck out 2, but for the spring he now has 12 K’s and 6 BB’s in just under 12 innings. Cecil moved quickly through the Jays organization last year starting in A and finishing in AAA. After a dominating stint at AA, his command slipped a bit at AAA and he struggled. I’d imagine the same difficult transition will come at the major league level this year (especially in the vaunted AL East), so temper expectations accordingly. Cecil’s been impressive in the spring and likely will be in the Jays rotation this year, but he really only deserves attention in dynasty formats, as I don’t see a big contribution this season from the young LH.
Chase Utley:
Utley was reportedly practicing his sliding on Friday which was the last step in his rehabilitation from hip surgery. Reports suggest Utley may make his spring debut next week and should be ready in time for opening day. Utley’s draft stock hasn’t reflected his ability to play from day one as he’s typically been falling into rd 2. This is a nice arbitrage opportunity for owners as Utley is truly a Top 5-8 player in Roto formats and should be drafted as such. For those at the end of rd 1, calmly select Utley and celebrate during the season as Utley looks good to go for an opening day return.
Gavin Floyd:
Floyd’s 2008 season was the type of waiver wire revelation that leads fantasy owners to championships. With a .264 BHIP% against, .75 Strand Rate, and a miniscule 11.4% HR/FB Rate, Floyd is an obvious candidate for regression, but how much? Floyd cut his BB Rate in the 2nd half from .42 to .35 a subtle but noteworthy drop, while raising his K Rate from .67 to .74. As a result we’re projecting a drop in production (mostly from the unexpected Wins difference last year +4), but not as big of one as you might think. Floyd should still be relevant in deeper mixed formats and a rotatable starting option in traditional formats. His K Rates are solid and his ability to go deep into games brings decent W potential. He won’t replicate last year’s production and while he’s a candidate for regression, he’s a fine back-end starting option for those in mixed leagues. Floyd struck out 4 and walked 1 in his 4 innings yesterday. His 2 ER’s allowed raised his spring ERA to 2.70.
Yovani Gallardo:
It wouldn’t be an entry of mine without some love for MYvani Gallardo. You might know him more commonly as YOvani, but he’s MYvani. My man-crush on the young Mexican hurler is well known around these parts. Gallardo rebounded from a difficult outing last time out throwing 4 shutout innings against the Royals, striking out 5 in the process, while allowing just 2 base-runners (both singles). Gallardo is highly regarded across the fantasy industry and owners haven’t shied away from him despite the knee injury last year, being drafted right around 2008 breakouts Ricky Nolasco and Edinson Volquez. Even though he’s not being ignored, there’s even more upside from there with Gallardo. Gallardo’s low BB Rate and high K Rate as well as pitching in one of the weakest hitting divisions in baseball makes Gallardo a legitimate #2 fantasy starter. The only concern with Gallardo is if the Brewers choose to limit his innings after just 24 last season, but he’s thrown 155 innings before at the minor league level, so expecting a jump up to 180 or so would be fine. We’re projecting even a bit more as Gallardo is ridden a bit more as the lone horse left in Milwaukee. In traditional formats I’d easily reach a round or two ahead of ADP to secure Gallardo, he’s James Shields with more upside.
Nelson Cruz:
One of my favorite sleepers this year went yard again on Friday. Nelson Cruz had a pretty typical Nelson Cruz line 1-4 with a HR and 2 K’s. Cruz has dominated the minor leagues for the last 5 seasons posting OPS above .900 in every season; but he hasn’t been able to put it together at the major league level. A free-swinging toolsy OF with all sorts of power seemed to have something click last year in the 2nd half as he posted a .600+ slugging % in 115 AB’s along with a .421 OBP. He cut his K Rate last season and upped his BB Rate significantly. In a terrific hitters’ park with outstanding power potential, Cruz is a monster steal in the 21st rd. Sure there’s a long history of failed major league attempts for the free swinging OF, but the track record in the minors is there and Cruz showed signs of putting it all together last year.
Chad Cordero:
Cordero was signed to a minor league deal on Friday with the Mariners. He’s not healthy enough to start the season on the major league roster, but this gives Cordero a chance to contend for a bullpen spot and potentially even the closer’s role when he is healthy. This doesn’t suggest much from a fantasy perspective other than the M’s bullpen is pretty weak, which we all knew anyway. For my money Miguel Batisita will get the bulk of the opportunities, but no M’s closers are really that fantasy worthy except in deeper leagues. In most cases they’ll do more damage than good for the occasional save.
Chicago Cubs 5th Starter competition:
The Cubs entered camp with four legitimate candidates for the 5th starter spot and appear to be down to 2. Chad Gaudin got roughed up again on Friday and has removed himself from the competition with such performances. Jeff Samardzija hasn’t been bad in the spring but he’s still got minor league options and the Cubs have some bullpen arms they need roster room for; that leaves Aaron Heilman and Sean Marshall. Marshall continued to stake his claim on Friday with 4 1/3 innings allowing 0 ER on 3 Hits and 1 BB along with 3 K’s. Heilman’s been equally as strong this spring with 12 K’s and a 1.13 ERA in 8 innings. Though the two have been performed equally well, the edge goes to Sean Marshall and manager Lou Pineilla hinted as such this past week when he noted Sean Marshall would likely get skipped through his first turn. With Heilman having more established success in the bullpen and Marshall considered a longer-term option in the rotation, we expect Marshall to win the role and a be a nice sleeper option in NL only formats.
Chicago Cubs 2B position battle:
Mike touched briefly on this yesterday but hopefully the Cubs 2B battle is all but decided. Mike Fontenot is hitting a robust .364/.400/.788 in spring while Aaron Miles has puttered along with a .267/.333/.267 line that reminds you that “he’s Aaron Miles”. The Cubs trade of Mark DeRosa seemingly was clearing the way to get Mike Fontenot more AB’s and allow for Lou Pineilla’s desire for a more LH roster to be fulfilled, but many preseason depth charts have identified Aaron Miles as the starter including the Cubs official site. Given Miles extensive track record as an ineffective hitter hopefully Fontenot will get a chance to build off his monstrous 2008 campaign that saw a .909 OPS in 243 AB’s. Fontenot is a nice sleeper in all formats because of the power potential and the depth of the Cubs lineup. He won’t start against LH pitching and he doesn’t run so there are some limitations to his upside but 15 HR’s and 70 RBI’s with a solid batting average is not out of the question.
Young Pitching Talent in Oakland:
One of the things that often gets overlooked with young pitchers is the situation they’re brought up in. Young pitchers in the AL East pitching in a number of hitters parks against loaded lineups often tend to struggle upon call-up. They battle with nibbling and the difficulties of pitching in hitters parks anyway. On the contrary starting in a weak hitting division with a great defense behind you in a tremendous pitchers park, is the ideal way to find fantasy sleepers. Look no further than the no-name all-talent rotation in Oakland. Sean Gallagher and Dana Eveland are the younger names left over from last year’s finish, while Justin Duchscherer is the poster-boy for regression both in health and performance as a reliever turned starter who put together a magical season in 2008. Then there’s the group of youngsters knocking down the door in Oakland: Vincent Mazzaro, Trevor Cahill, and Brett Anderson all have had impressive springs and appear to be in contention for rotation spots. Mazzaro is the most ready of the three but the least regarded among the prospects. His command seemed to click last year in AA as he posted an impressive 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 137 1/3 innings with a solid .26 BB Rate. This spring he’s thrown 8 shutout innings with 8 K’s and 1 BB. Of the three Cahill and Anderson are the ones with the large upside but Mazzaro may be the one cracking the rotation at the end of spring.
Cheap Saves in Oaktown:
I’ve noted in previous years how cheap saves seem to come from Oakland year in and year out. Whether it’s been Allan Embree, Justin Duchscherer, or Brad Ziegler, the A’s bullpen seems to produce a secondary save man who notches 10 or so a year. This year Joey Devine is the leader out of the gates (more on that in a second), but Brad Ziegler or Santiago Casilla will make an impact in saves as the year progresses. Devine is the guy you want now as the A’s realize Ziegler’s value in a multi inning setup role, but Ziegler should make an impact in the saves category as the season goes on as well. I’d be surprised to see any individual A’s reliever reach 30 saves this year, but both should have value as strong whip/era contributors that notch 10+ saves.
The Offensive Breakouts in Cincinnati:
Two of my favorite offensive breakout candidates for 2008 are Reds corner infielders. Both Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion showed signs of improvement over last year and are poised for a breakout here in 2008. For Encarnacion this has been something I’ve been calling for over the last 3 years, but Encarnacion has an increasing EYE, FB Rate, and Slugging % over each of the last 3 years. Encarnacion’s just 26 years old and he plays in a terrific hitters park, making him a premier candidate (again) for a breakout season. Votto’s the high prize prospect who posted a monstrous .321/.394/.564 2nd half line and isn’t getting nearly the credit he deserves in drafts. He’s easily a Top 10 1B this season and is being drafted closer to the Top 15. Both players are in terrific situations to significantly exceed expectations and should be great draft day bargains.
The Dusty Baker Effect:
Many of the Reds pitchers come with a big warning label simply because they pitch for Dusty Baker. Baker’s history with young arms like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are well documented and last year the precipitous fall of Aaron Harang after a 4 inning bullpen outing on 2 days rest brought more heat on Baker. In addition, at the end of the year with the Reds out of contention the innings kept getting piled on Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. So heading into 2008 how concerned should we be? The truth is… not that concerned. Baker’s reputation is already dragging down the potential of such starters as Harang and Volquez are relative draft day bargains given Harang’s history and pre-bullpen performance and Volquez’s near Cy Young season, while Cueto’s getting drafted late alongside other high K young arms. All 3 seem to have a discount baked into their price tags because of Baker and while Baker does elicit some concerns long-term in keeper or dynasty formats for owners of those players, they appear to be bargains for 2009. Cueto and Volquez, though ridden hard down the stretch, didn’t go over the dreaded “Verducci Rule” (a 35+ inning increase over the previous year or career high) which suggests while the workload was tough these concerns may be overblown. Given the discount baked into the ADP, I’d comfortably select any of the three Reds starters at current levels.
