A few years ago we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup.
Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future. Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.
Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2008 (based on 375 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2008, is a recording of each player's 2008 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations). Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.
As you can see, many of 2008's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise: Inconsistent players usually stay inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus these players are at risk to post consistent yearly results.
We know what to expect from Mark Ellis on a year to year basis: basically lack luster fantasy output. However there are players such as Khalil Greene, Jeff Francour, Kevin Millar, Ramon Hernandez, Melky Cabrera, Jason Kendall, Jose Castillo, Yadier Molina, Nick Swisher, Jason Varitek, Mark Teahen, Bill Hall, Orlando Cabrera, Gary Matthews Jr. who have posted solid fantasy production at different points in their careers. Expecting them to return to glory is the risk that we seek to avoid, especially on draft day.
An example of some of the players we do expect to increase production this year, based on their past consistency include: Garrett Atkins, Freddy Sanchez, Corey Hart, Michael Bourn, Michael Young, Yunel Escobar, and Hunter Pence. Last year we pointed out Ray Durham, Brian McCann, and Jason Bay. Durham started the season with injury issues and never recovered, but McCann and Bay went on to post solid comeback seasons.
When considering Consistency Factor both injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator on the Player Pages within the software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day.
As every year, I do want to point out that rookie players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value come draft day.
See our Consistency Factor in action using our Player
Projections Software.
