Dodgers 2B
The Dodgers clearly aren’t giving Hudson $3.4 million guaranteed (up to $8 million with PA-related incentives) to be a backup. He’s the starting second baseman. This has a couple implications. First, Blake DeWitt will likely begin the year in Triple-A to get further seasoning, which is a bit of a shame considering the 23 year-old acquitted himself well with a .344 OBP despite having very little experience above High-A minor league ball. DeWitt will be back, but perhaps not as a full-time starter until 2010 barring injury and assuming a strong year at the plate. Second, Hudson lands a starting job. As a Type A free agent, he garnered little interest from teams willing to part with a precious draft pick, but the Dodgers will gladly take his strong .370ish OBP and Gold Glove defense. Hudson won’t be a fantasy superstar, but there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be hitting second in the lineup between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez (should he re-sign), so 90 runs scored and a dozen homers seem possible. It all depends on Manny’s return, but Hudson’s value climbs a bit with this move.
Dodgers #5 starter
The top four are set with Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf, and Clayton Kershaw, but who’s on tap for No. 5? The contenders: Claudio Vargas, Jeff Weaver, Shawn Estes, Eric Milton, Eric Stults, James McDonald, and a host of lesser options. The Dodgers appear to be leaning towards McDonald beginning the year in the bullpen a la Billingsley circa 2007, leaving a bunch of has-beens competing for the slot. Ramon Troncoso is a very deep sleeper here as rumors have the Dodgers considering a conversion from the bullpen, but it’s probably best to avoid this motley bunch unless McDonald is unexpectedly tapped for the role. Ok, one more thing: yes, Jason Schmidt is in the mix as well. Schmidt has thrown all of 25.2 innings in the first two years of a three-year $47 million contract, and after major (labrum/rotator cuff type major) shoulder surgery, he’s attempting to provide at least some return on Ned Colletti’s investment. We’ll probably hear that Schmidt is healthy and looks good this spring, but fantasy owners beware. We’d recommend investing in financials over Schmidt right now.
San Francisco 1B
The Giants did an excellent job upgrading their pitching staff this offseason, adding Randy Johnson to the rotation and giving Brian Wilson a couple set-up men in Jeremy Affeldt and Bobby Howry. GM Brian Sabean though has yet to upgrade an offense that finished 29th in baseball in runs scored last season, a mere three ahead of the lowly Padres. I like Pablo Sandoval, particularly in leagues in which he’s catcher-eligible, but the Giants’ situation at first base personifies the offensive issues this team is going to experience barring a trade (Nick Johnson?) or unexpected free agent signing (Manny anyone?). The candidates: Travis Ishikawa, John Bowker, Josh Phelps, and believe it or not, it tails off from there. Phelps is all bat and little defense, but his ability to mash left-handers (.314/.390/.476 since 2006) gives him a good shot at a platoon role and perhaps more, given the paucity of viable competition. Ishikawa is interesting, but until we see some success versus major league pitching, we’ll have to take his Triple-A line last year (.314/.370/.737 – yes, the SLG is correct). It helps that he’s a solid defender, and should Ishikawa hit well this spring, he could put himself in position for 400 at-bats, giving him strong NL-only value.
San Francisco 2B
Yet another three-headed battle of uninspiring fantasy options, 2008 fan favorite Kevin Frandsen will do battle with Emmanuel Burriss (no relation to the similarly-named Illinois senator) and Eugenio Velez in the mix as well. Burris looks to be the early favorite, having batted .283/.357/.329. We’d like to see a few more walks, but Burriss has excellent contact skills and a .352 career minor league OBP, so if he can get on base 34-35% of the time, we’re looking at 50+ SB potential. Of course that comes with no power, but on a team that lacks an element of speed (Benji Molina may be the slowest runner in the game), Burriss skills have to be enticing to Bruce Bochy. Velez is Burriss with a bit more power, but his .299 OBP for the Giants puts him a bit behind Burriss entering camp. Velez stole 64 bases in the minors in 2006, but was just 28-for-43 in attempts last season. Frandsen looks to be a bench guy barring an unforeseen offensive explosion this spring. He’s coming off a torn achilles that wiped out his 2008 season.
Arizona Left Field
This one is a bit cloudy given the impending return of Eric Byrnes from a hamstring injury. Byrnes, in the first year of a new three-year $30 million deal, was a bust in Arizona last year, batting just .209 in 206 at-bats before injuring the hamstring in June and missing the rest of the season. Manager Bob Melvin said in December that Byrnes would begin the season on the bench, with Conor Jackson in left field and Chad Tracy at first base. We’ll see, but should Byrnes appear health and anywhere near his 2007 form, the Diamondbacks may be tempted to give him at-bats in an attempt to build trade value, something that could allow the financially-strapped organization to unload at least a portion of the $20 million or so Byrnes is due through 2010. This would probably impact Tracy the most, though perhaps Arizona tires of Mark Reynolds’ 200+ strikeout pace and moves Tracy across the diamond. This all depends on how Byrnes fares this spring, but it’s clear that Melvin is committed to playing his best players, eight-figure salary be damned.
San Diego 2B
The Padres have Luis Rodriguez and David Eckstein, the combined power of whom would likely be surpassed by several major league pitchers. Rodriguez is the leading candidate to start at short, and if you’re looking for a guy who will hit the most empty .280 in baseball, the powerless Rodriguez is your guy. His likely keystone partner appears to be Eckstein, who should be good for a decent OBP, but offers no power and very little SB ability these days. The Padres would love to see former top prospect Matt Antonelli step up and win this job with a huge spring, but how can one rely on a guy who hit .215 in the PCL last season and was 11-for-57 with the Padres? That Antonelli’s plate discipline (86:76 K:BB) remained intact offers some hope, but he’s got a lot to prove to get back in the Padres’ future plans. Still, one to watch this spring.
San Diego Rotation
Assuming Jake Peavy stays, the Padres will be opening up three rotation slots behind he and Chris Young. The list of candidates is about as inspiring as a Rob Schneider movie: Josh Geer, Wade LeBlanc, Kevin Correia, Cha Seung Baek, Will Inman, and Cesar Carrillo. Carrillo at least has the pedigree of being a top draft pick, though his development has been hampered by injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Still, he’s the only guy worth watching among this motley bunch, and if guys like Baek and LeBlanc wind up on your fantasy squad, you have issues. Correia could be mildly interesting should an oblique injury be really to blame for his 6.05 ERA last year, but avoidance is probably the best course of action.
Arizona Closer
It’s going to be Chad Qualls, at least initially, but Qualls has little experience closing and may actually be a more valuable set-up man. Sure, he could go on to save 40 games with that slider, but don’t rule out Jon Rauch or Tony Pena seeing closing time at some point this year. Rauch blamed personal issues for his struggles (6.56 ERA) after coming to Arizona via trade last year, so don’t count him out just yet. Pena has long been viewed as the “closer of the future”, thought we’d like to see that .72 K/I catch up with his stuff. Pena was hurt a bit by an unexpectedly high.314 BHIP%, so combined with an improving ground ball rate and walk rate, expect good things from him this year.
Odalis Perez
Nice work here by Perez. Sure, he couldn’t have been happy seeing Tim Redding landing more than $2 million guaranteed while he, Perez, could garner just a minor league deal, but holding out, not returning phone calls, and generally being a moron got Perez released on Monday. Perez had an ERA a half run better, a better strikeout rate, better walk rate, and was just “better” than Redding last season, so not seeing him land a major league deal was a bit surprising. Still, what other team out there is going to give him a rotation spot now? Expect another minor league deal, but given the state of the Nationals’ rotation, Perez could have easily won one of those five slots. “Odalis, it’s the Pirates on line one”.
Ken Griffey
Griffey is back where it all started in Seattle, and the situation couldn’t be more ideal from a fantasy perspective. Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro will man center and right fields respectively, but things are wide open for Griffey in left. Wladimir Balentien could see at-bats there, though he hit just .202 for Seattle in part-time duty a year ago. Endy Chavez is in the mix, but between left field and DH, Griffey will play every day unless he’s either hurt (possible obviously) or in need of a day off (there may be several of those). Griffey is on his last legs to be sure, but keeping his legs fresh by DHing often this year could results in 25-30 homers. He’ll be a decent value in AL-only leagues. As a side note, this shouldn’t impact Jeff Clement, whom the Mariners appear committed to playing most every day either behind the plate or at DH.
Joe Crede
Crede finally settled on a team, predictably taking far less guaranteed ($2.5 million) than he an overzealous agent Scott Boras wanted ($7 million). Crede of course is recovering from offseason back surgery, reporting on Monday that he’s nearly one hundred percent. He’ll be the everyday third baseman and looks to be a bit of a low-risk high-reward type, just two years removed from a .283-30-94 season. A 0.42 career EYE limits the AVG upside, but 25-30 homers is reachable given 500 at-bats, something that’s certainly no given for a guy with two back surgeries in two years under his belt. Bid cautiously, but Crede is a guy worth targeting.
David DeJesus
It’s a slow news day, but here’s one item of note. The Royals are considering batting DeJesus third behind Coco Crisp and (likely) Mike Aviles and ahead of cleanup hitter Jose Guillen. DeJesus is coming off a .307/.366/.452 season, but this doesn’t look like a good idea. His 12 homers were a career-high and probably represents his 2009 forecast give or take a couple. The 73 RBI were a product of a .417 AVG with RISP, a mark that won’t be repeated again. To me, DeJesus is the ideal No.2 - .360 career OBP, a little speed, and an EYE in the 0.65 range. Ideally, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon (and eventually Eric Hosmer) will form the middle of the order, but for now, it’s DeJesus. From a fantasy perspective, this should mean more RBI and perhaps a couple more homers should he decided to swing for the fences at the expense of OBP.
Nyjer Morgan
Morgan is reportedly the leading candidate to open the season in left field for the Bucs. Manager John Russell reportedly likes the spark Morgan would bring to the club. Morgan’s main competition appears to be Eric Hinske, but giving Hinske anything more than a 300 at-bat utility role seems counterproductive for an organization in no position to compete any time soon. Morgan though is no lock to win the job nor keep it should he be the opening day starter. Morgan has no power and while his speed give him 40+ SB potential, he’s often careless on the basepaths. If he can repeat least year’s .345 OBP, Morgan would likely be in a position for 500 PAs, though that is no guarantee given his 19 career walks to 267 at-bats. Morgan did hit a sizzling .347 in 32 games after being recalled from Triple-A in August, so perhaps he carries that momentum into 2009. Andrew McCutcheon is eventually going to join Nate McLouth in the Bucs starting outfield, so Morgan will have to start off strong this spring and carry that into the regular season to separate himself from Hinske, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce, and others. Fantasy owners can’t ignore the SB possibilities, but it’s questionable whether Morgan shows enough offense to stick as a full-timer.
Brad Penny
Dodgers fans will likely have nothing to do with Penny in their fantasy leagues this year, but as
of February, Penny is looking like a lock to open in the Boston rotation. Monday, Penny threw batting practice for the first time this year. He reported feeling great after the 30-pitch outing. He’s the early favorite in the battle for No. 5, a battle that includes Clay Buchholz and perhaps Justin Masterson, though Masterson more likely winds up in the bullpen. Penny’s ugly exit from the Dodgers is well-documented, but as long as last season’s shoulder woes are behind him, there’s enough upside here to make him intriguing. He’ll have John Smoltz (shoulder) to contend with in June, as well as Buchholz and perhaps Michael Bowden, though injuries could always create other openings. The metrics aren’t exactly trending in Penny’s favor (K/I – from 0.78 to 0.65 to 0.54; BB from 0.29 to 0.35 to 0.45) the past two years, but ask him and it’s all about the health of his shoulder. True? Perhaps, though we’d also like to see a slimmer Penny as well.
Jason Schmidt
Could Schmidt emerge as somewhat of a sleeper? I wouldn’t count on it, but the recently oft-injured overpaid right-hander did throw a scoreless inning in an intrasquad game on Monday. Schmidt has the edge over the likes of Claudio Vargas, Jeff Weaver, and
Joe Mather
Those looking for some short-term value could do worse than Mather. With Troy Glaus due back from shoulder surgery around May, the Cardinals are holding open auditions for third base. Mather and David Freese appear to be the leading contenders, with Mather’s 56 homers in 832 at-bats over the past two seasons keeping him in the mix. Mather hit eight homers in just 133 at-bats for St. Louis last season and a 1.041 Tripole-A OPS, so he’s at least mildly intriguing. There was some talk of trying him at second base, but that doesn’t appear to be on the radar unfortunately. He’s probably a utility guy long-term, but his power potential offers at least some intrigue.
Manny Ramirez
Manny Watch 2009 continues. LA radio stations Monday were abuzz with rumors that the Dodgers and Manny had agreed on a multi-year deal set to be announced later in the week. Of course the club denied the rumors, though it’s highly possible they are true. Giants GM Brian Sabean Monday all-but ruled out the Giants being in the mix, and as no other club has stepped up with anything resembling an offer, figure Manny winds up a Dodger within the week. Juan Pierre would then be the fourth outfielder, perhaps playing once a week at best in relief of Manny, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier.
Jon Niese
The Mets’ No. 5 starter job looks to be Tim Redding’s for the taking, but we still think this is an open competition, with Niese and Freddy Garcia as the other contestants. The lefty is probably a No. 3 starter long-term, though at age 22, his time might not be quite now. Niese got his feet wet with the Mets last season, experiencing two poor outings and one good after posting a 144:56 K:BB in 164 minor league innings. Figure the veterans have the edge, but it does appear Niese is receiving a legitimate opportunity to compete for a job.
