DC Preview - Analyzing the Outfield

Okay everyone, welcome to the first official installment of the Diamond Challenge Preview. Today, I’ll go over some very basic strategy and then analyze the OF options for this year. I will also be posting the next 5 Mondays:
1. March 2nd – Middle Infielders
2. March 9th – 3rd Basemen/Catchers
3. March 16th – 1st Basemen
4. March 23rd – Starting Pitchers
5. March 30th – Relief Pitchers/Strategy Recap

The DC is one of my favorite fantasy games because everyone starts out on an even playing field, and your team is entirely dependent on you because of the freedom to select any players you want. It’s also very interesting since other teams can have the same players as you, making every player you select critically important. So, what should you keep in mind on your quest to create the perfect fantasy team under 30 mil?

The first key is to realize there are some players every year that are must haves. Two years ago if you didn’t have Matt Holliday you were in trouble. Last year, if you didn’t select Tim Lincecum, at his relatively low salary, chances are you fell behind in the pitching categories. Every year we see players who are dominant and owned by 90% or so of DC teams. If you are part of the 10% without these players, you will need to have a near perfect squad to overcome that. Or you can use one of your 12 buys to get this player, but it is extremely painful to use one of your limited purchases on a player that essentially will only help you tread water in most categories (since he is already highly owned). Not to mention that usually these are players that you should have taken in the first place but talked yourself out of for some reason. Don’t outthink yourself!

The second key is to find some low priced options that aren’t solid and at their worst, won’t kill you. You are going to need to find a handful of value picks to allow you to splurge on a few top tier players. If you can’t find room for any top tier players, chances are you have a lot of mediocre players and will have a mediocre finish. In finding these value picks, it’s essential to find relatively low-priced, low-risk players. These are the types of players you want in your lineup a lot to keep your salary down, and at the same time, since they are cheap, it will be difficult to replace them without messing up your team’s total salary.

The third key is to take a few risks! If you want to make a run at that grand prize, you aren’t going to be able to do it without gambling a little bit. Don’t go Charles Barkley on us and gamble with your whole roster, but a few risks here and there are essential. Try and find a few players with a low salary but high breakout potential.

Finally, you want to fill out the rest of your roster with solid, well rounded players that won’t kill you in any category. A lot of times certain players at mid level salaries get overlooked because they are neither cheap nor studs, but there is definitely room for these players on your roster. If you have a roster filled with unproven guys, you will be pulling your hair out come the end of May when you’ve already been forced to use half your buys. Every roster needs a few players with a proven track record so that you know what you’re getting ahead of time, and generally these are players you won’t have to worry about burning a buy on.

OUTFIELDERS

The must haves

Carl Crawford (1300) – Crawford might honestly be worthy of having the highest salary of any OF, and with the increases in salary of Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez you might need to find SB elsewhere. Crawford gives you that speed (having averaged 44 the last three seasons despite playing in only 109 games last year). He should also rebound in batting average: both his unlucky .258 singles average (career worst) and .50 EYE (career best) suggest he should hit around .300, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was up towards .310. Crawford will also be playing in the best Tampa lineup he has ever been a part of, meaning he should post career highs in RBI’s and RS, and if this is the year he breaks out in terms of power, LOOK OUT!

Josh Hamilton (1220) – You can’t afford to start your team without Hamilton. Fantistics has him projected as the RBI leader for all outfielders, and yet there 22 other players with a higher salary than Hamilton. I suspect he will be one of those players that is immediately owned by at least 3/4ths of all DC teams, meaning you will have a tough time keeping up in the RBI category should you choose to leave him off of your squad.

Potential x-factors

Nick Markakis (1320) – This is the year Nick Markakis makes the leap from really good to absolute stud. Last year, he struggled with a more patient approach, but that will pay off in the long run. His .88 EYE was a huge improvement over the .60 and .54 EYEs he posted in ’06 and ’07 respectively. At 25 YO, Markakis will post career highs in HR, RBI, RS, and BA, and should swipe double digit bags to boot.

Solid plays

Jason Bay (1230) – Bay’s move from Pittsburgh to Boston will automatically boost his RS scored totals and RBI numbers due to the shift of talent around him alone. His salary does not reflect that, making him a bargain. He won’t hurt you in average and there are not too many guys at his salary level who will safely contribute 30 homers along with 100+ RBI’s and RS.

BJ Upton (1010) – Upton should give you 40+ steals again this season, and with him you do not have to sacrifice much to get them. Sure, his average and power were disappointing last year. We should have expected as much with his BA after Upton posted a ridiculous .341 singles average in 2007. However, Upton’s power should rebound; his 7.4 HR/FB% in ’08 was unlucky. And we certainly saw flashes of that power in the postseason, when Upton went yard more than a handful of times. More HR to come in ’09 (we have him pegged for 14 and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more) will obviously lead to more hits, and Upton’s BA could climb to around .280, instead of staying in the low .270’s.

Matt Kemp (940) – I like Kemp’s value at this price. Hopefully he will add a little bit more power this year, and he is well rounded. If you sort our OF by projected roto value, Kemp is ranked tied for 13th despite having a DC salary that is tied for 41st.

Low salary options

Justin Upton (560) – A lot of people may choose to go with Jay Bruce over Upton as their low salary high reward option at the outfield end, but I think Upton is the play here. For one thing, Upton, despite his high K rate (29.5%), actually improved his EYE by 15 points from 2007 when he had 140 at bats. That’s an encouraging sign, and Upton’s .45 EYE is nothing spectacular, but it does make him less of a batting average risk than Bruce who posted a .30 EYE. I also think that Upton might flash a little bit more power, as he puts the ball in the air a lot more than Bruce as evidenced by Upton’s 41.9 FB% and Bruce’s 34.2 FB%. All in all, Upton is more likely to be a quality fantasy producer this year and his projected .274 batting average won’t kill you; Bruce’s projected .262 BA might. Not to mention, Upton is 140 thousand dollars cheaper, which certainly should be taken into consideration.

Adam Lind (550) – Lind might not have the breakout potential of an Upton or Bruce, but I don’t see any players cheaper than him that will be solid OF options. We have Lind projected for a .296 average, 78 RBI’s, 87 RS, and 20 HR. If he hits those projections, then Lind is certainly worthy of an OF spot on your squad. There’s nothing like a low-priced option that will reasonably contribute to 4 out of 5 categories while freeing up cap room for you to take some studs on your opening day roster.

Avoid

I would avoid most of the high priced OF options this year, with the most likely exception being Grady Sizemore, especially since, as seen by the players selected above, it appears that you can build quite a solid outfield without taking any players in the upper tier price range (1350+). This will also allow you to avoid taking any of the players in the 700 thousand to 1 million range, who all seem mediocre at best.

For example, here are two high-priced options to stay away from.

Vladimir Guerrero, priced at 1470, appears to be a shell of his former self; his slugging percentage has declined in each of the past four seasons. As a result, he is not the RBI king worthy of a salary that high. Matt Holiday, this year’s most expensive OF, will suffer away from Coors field. I mean the splits are just extraordinary. At home his BA/OBP/SLG line for his career is .357/.423/.645; on the road it is a rather pedestrian .280/.348/.455. Like you are going to take Holliday at 1610 when you can take Hamilton at 1220.

See you all next week, when we take a look at the middle infielders! Again, feel free to comment below with any questions/suggestions/plain old baseball talk you may have.