Welcome to another season of Prospect Central!
Here is where you find breakdowns of Insiderbaseball.com’s Top 100 Prospects. Each week you can also check out our Prospect Central Spreadsheet Hitters / Pitchers (which is handled by David Regan) with rankings and updates on our top 50 pitching and hitting prospects.
Matt Wieters - Baltimore Orioles
The "Total Package" comes to Baltimore this season. Matt Wieters is the rarest of rare prospect types, a switch-hitting offensive catcher who can actually play the position. The Orioles cleared the runway for Wieters with the trade of Ramon Hernandez to the Reds. They believe he's ready despite the fact that he has yet to face a pitcher ... or even catch a pitcher ... above AA ... not to mention that he'll be 22 on Opening Day.
Matt's first pro season gives you little reason to doubt. After ripping A+ for a .345/.576/1.024 in 229 ABs, he went to AA where he hit .365 in 208 ABs with a .625 SLG% and an 1.085 OPS. Matt took more BBs than Ks at AA, posting just a 13.9% K rate, over 4% better than his A+ K rate.
Matt is a perennial All-Star in the making with outstanding zone command, plus power to all fields, plus personal make up, leadership qualities and coach ability. He will be a force in this year's fantasy drafts, and with the Orioles. Keeper league owners can consider Wieters to be a .300/25/90 hitter over the long term, and he should maintain his catching qualification for much of the next decade. But in terms of 2009, .290/20/80 will be a highly successful season as Matt faces MLB pitching for the first time.
There's nothing wrong with that out of a catching slot. Matt's 2009 and long term grade is A+
David Price - SP Tampa Bay Rays
David Price is the second rarest of rare prospect types ... a tall power lefty. David leads with a low-to-mid 90s fastball with great late life. His slider is even better. It's a hard biting slider that even in the mid-80s can show 10 mph of separation from his fastball. David's change is mature, has great fade and he throws it with convincing arm action. Price is also adept at adding and subtracting a foot on every pitch making his 3 pitches look like 6 or 8. Price saw four levels in 2008 finishing with nearly 20 effective innings with the Rays, including 5.2 in the postseason. In 14 IP in the regular season with the Rays David held opponents to a .186 OBA with 12 Ks and 3 walks and the 2009 hype machine hit overdrive.
Price will be an eventual Ace in every sense of the word, barring injury of course, but what of 2009? David pitched just 123.2 IP in 2008 and it's reasonable to assume the Rays will limit David's innings this year. That will of course limit his 2009 value. Even if the Rays don't plan to limit him, a drop off at some point is to be expected. We will also need to see how hitters handle him in their second and third ABs of the game, and in the case of the AL East, the second and third game they see him.
Early on, the key to his success level will be his ability to keep his BB rate under 3/9. That could be a struggle This year 10-13 wins in 175 IP would be a great start. He should be able to maintain a near-4.00 ERA and post 150 Ks with that workload.
Price's potential and his performance with the Rays at the end of last season will almost assuredly mean that you will need to pay more to get him this spring than he will produce this summer. Over the long haul that won't be a problem, but for 2009 we will grade out Price at a B. Price has all the ear marks of a perennial All Star. In the long term, Price grades out at A+.
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Cameron Maybin - OF Florida Marlins
What makes Cameron Maybin interesting is that unlike the
two prospects above, there may be a delta in your league between what this guy
will be worth in 2009, and what he will be worth as early as 2010.
Here's your pre-draft ground softening script:
Maybin turns 22 just hours after the season opens and he's already been traded once. Scan his K rate percentages, and in stops with more that 50 ABs, he fanned 30.1% of the time in A ball in 2006, 28% of the time in High-A in 2007, and 31.8% of the time in AA for the Marlins last year. Cameron hit .277 in AA with an extremely favorable .375 BHIP%, something that is not likely to repeat in the majors.
Yes he's toolsy, but all of that above is true, and it casts a shadow of a doubt. Just apply liberally on draft day. Perhaps it's not enough to drop his value too much but you take what you can get. The game is won and lost, between your cost for a player and what he returns.
What you need to know is that he just turned 21 when he
went to work in AA for the Marlins last spring and the 13.3% BB rate he posted
was higher than his 12.7% in High-A in 2007 and his 11.5% in A in 2006. You
should also know that his 13 HRs in AA were suppressed a bit by home park
effects and the fact that Maybin still hits a lot of ground balls ... a ton of
ground balls. I think as Cameron matures and gets comfortable at a level, he'll
begin to elevate the ball. He all ready defines his strike zone pretty well, so
if he can up his contact level, his speed and ability to press a defense on the
ground will help keep his average respectable. In the long term his struggles
with average may be a plus because his speed will tempt the Marlins to push him
towards the top of the order. We'd rather see him hitting 5th or 6th and
developing his power game. His speed will take care of itself.
Cameron may have his struggles in 2009 with the big club and they wouldn't be
unexpected. And there's still some question about what Maybin will be going
forward. His high K rates and generally undeveloped contact skills undermine the
potential of his considerable physical skills. That doubt is where you can
accrue some value with Maybin. Now in most leagues Cameron won't be discounted
too much, but as opposed to players like Matt Wieters, David Price, and Matt
LaPorta, you may very well get back more than you pay for this season.
Cameron's 2009 grade is B- because of his SB potential, and in the long term we
can reasonable expect Mike Cameron, which would grade out at a low B- as well.
But Maybin has 30/30 potential most likely will post a series of 25/30 seasons.
That would land a A+ grade.
We'll see you back in a few days with another 5 top prospects to watch in 2009.
